F1 Bahrain Grand Prix qualifying predictions: Charles Leclerc looks pole value

Free Formula 1 tips, best bets and analysis for the F1 Bahrain Grand Prix qualifying at Sakhir on Saturday.

Where to watch

Practice three Sky Sports F1, midday Saturday
Qualifying Sky Sports F1, 3pm Saturday

Best bet

Charles Leclerc fastest qualifier
1pt 2-1 general

Previews

The first day of official running of the 2022 Formula 1 season posed as many questions as it answered, but hinted at a decent fight at the front.

It’s less than a week since pre-season testing concluded at the same Sakhir circuit that hosts this weekend’s Bahrain Grand Prix. New world champion Max Verstappen ended the test fastest and also set the quickest time in practice on Friday.

Ferrari, having looked solid in preseason, were the Red Bull driver’s closest competitors, with Charles Leclerc less than a tenth of a second behind and Carlos Sainz third fastest.

Mercedes had warned they are not in a position to fight for wins straight away, but no-one took that seriously coming from the team who have won the constructors’ championship for the last eight years running.

But maybe the raft of technical rule changes have caught the Silver Arrows off guard after all. New signing George Russell was fourth on Friday, half a second off the pace while seven-time champ Lewis Hamilton ended the day down in ninth after suffering some technical issues.

Perhaps more concerning for Hamilton is that in the longer runs the Mercedes cars were a second per lap away from Red Bull and Ferrari, who were well matched at the front.

Predictably Verstappen has shortened in the betting for qualifying and the race while Hamilton has taken a walk in the markets, but it may yet be too soon to write anyone off.

It’s almost a cliche that Friday practice shouldn’t be considered a reliable form guide.

Part of that is down to the fact that teams will be running different engine settings to what they will use for the rest of the weekend.
That could be more significant in Bahrain than most other tracks since Sakhir is a power circuit, where engine strength is the most important factor.

Verstappen claimed a comfortable pole position in Bahrain last year, but with so many unknowns stakes should be kept small and the champion is on the short side.

Leclerc claimed his first F1 pole in Bahrain in 2019 – one of seven he took that year – and the Monegasque looks most likely to challenge Verstappen.