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Thursday, 17 January, 2019

Milestone tournament should see high-quality fare

Judd Trump is the favourite to make the tournament’s highest break
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With two of the last four World Championships yielding a century break make-up in the 80s and the other pair failing to break 50, bookmakers are understandably at odds over the standard that will be produced on the 40th anniversary of the tournament going to the Crucible Theatre.

There have been centuries make-ups in the 60s too, while the paltry total of 46 in 2006 was the lowest since the turn of the millennium.

But with a couple of tallies in the 70s in 2011 and 2012, the numbers have been high enough to suggest that the norm is likelier to be higher than lower.

The general quality of play is improving too, so it’s probably wiser for punters to err on the positive side rather than expect a poor-quality competition.

Of course, the quality of the tables and the atmospherics in the auditorium play a major part in determining the total tons make-up and some backers will want to get a look at the conditions before punting.

But Paddy Power, by putting their total tons mark at 77 or more and 76 or lower, are some way lower than tournament sponsors Betfred, who reckon it’s more likely that the total will be in the 80s than not.

Three of the last four years at the Crucible has failed to feature a break above 143, but given what came before that dip it’s fair to think that 2017 could see a higher score compiled.

Between 2002 and 2012, the magical figure of 145 was reached in eight of 11 years so the 5-6 that Paddy Power are offering about the biggest single visit being 145 or higher could be well worth snapping up.

The same firm go 4-1 that two or more 147 maximums are made in the 17 days of the tournament, but that has happened only once so it’s difficult to argue a case for the price being value.

The layers also reckon that a 147 is only a slight favourite not to happen – a maximum is only evens to be made in a place – so going over 144.5 looks the call. 

77 or more centuries
1pt 5-6 Paddy Power
Highest break 145 or higher
1pt 5-6 Paddy Power

The numbers have been high enough to suggest that the norm is likelier to be higher than lower
E.W. Terms
Sky bet