Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Blackpool 0 Asian handicap cards
Coventry v Blackpool, 3pm Saturday
1pt 1.8 bet365

Take Blackpool to receive most cards in their Championship game at Coventry. With bet365, back Blackpool 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5.

Each yellow will count as one card, each red as two cards. If Blackpool’s total is highest the bet will win, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if Coventry’s total is highest the bet will lose.

There is a fairly strong relationship in most competitions between cards for and against and goals scored and conceded. This is because both, in turn, are related to something else – how much attacking and defending teams do.

The more attacking a team do, the more goals they are likely to score. The more defending a team do, the more goals they are likely to concede – and the more cards they are likely to receive. Cards can be issued for all sorts of different reasons, including over-celebrating scoring a goal, but most are issued for genuine though mistimed attempts to regain the ball.

Coventry have two points fewer than Blackpool but two games in hand, both at home. The result-related markets suggest that today there might not be much to distinguish the teams other than ground advantage. They imply a 48 per cent chance of a home win, a 27 per cent chance of a draw and a 25 per cent chance of an away win – and seem about right to me.

In Championship games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the away team 0 Asian handicap cards would normally be shorter than 1.8, and it is possible they should be today.

Both Coventry and Blackpool have received a slightly higher than usual share of the cards in their games this season. In previous seasons things tended to be the other way round – they tended to receive a smaller share of the cards in their games than teams achieving similar results.

And so did Blackpool manager Michael Appleton with previous clubs. He returned to Blackpool in pre-season. Mark Robins has managed Coventry for five and a half years.

So there are some confusing signals, but it is possible that the best way to turn is towards Blackpool receiving most cards.

Thought for the week

Tottenham are third in the Premier League. Their fans must be happy, right? Er, no. This may be partly because Tottenham lost their last two games in the competition, away to Manchester United and home to Newcastle.

Before those defeats I read articles congratulating Tottenham on their best start in 59 seasons and anointing them as serious title contenders. Critics praised Tottenham’s tactics as cunning – they sat deep and tried to hit on the break. Now those same tactics are condemned as negative and unambitious.

They are not prototypical Antonio Conte tactics, it should be said. Anyone who has followed his managerial career in Italy and England will know this.

With Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son up front, Tottenham will always be able to attack quickly when there is an opportunity, and they should. But over time, if Conte stays, I would expect Tottenham to have more long attacks, especially against middle- and lower-table opponents.

Always, though, verdicts on Tottenham’s tactics will depend on the most recent results. It is the same for any manager and any team.

Author Daniel Kahneman made a similar observation about the actions of business executives in a book called Thinking, Fast and Slow. He wrote: “The CEO of a successful company is likely to be called flexible, methodical, and decisive. Imagine that a year has passed and things have gone sour. The same executive is now described as confused, rigid and authoritarian.”

Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola said in one press conference: “I have plans. Sometimes they work and we don’t win. Sometimes they are a disaster and we do.”

Pundits and fans, though, will always describe tactics with nice words when the team win and nasty words when the team lose.

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