Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Crewe +3 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.8 bet365

Back Crewe +3 Asian handicap corners in their League One game at Burton. Bet365 offer decimal odds of 1.8, equivalent to the fractional price of 4-5.

If Crewe lose the corners count by four or more the bet will fail, if they lose it by three stakes will be returned, but if something else happens the bet will succeed. And that may be more likely than the potential returns suggest.

Crewe are 22nd out of 24 in League One with 18 points from 23 games. They have fared even less well in corners counts than we should have anticipated from the number of goals they have scored and conceded.

If what happens today is the same as what happened earlier in the season the bet will probably lose. But it might not be.

Bookmakers think Crewe are better than the results they have achieved. This is reflected in, among other things, the home/draw/away prices for today’s game at 13th-placed Burton. On that point I suspect bookmakers are right. Teams near the bottom of a table have usually suffered from at least some misfortune.

If Crewe play better today, or get kinder rolls of the ball, or both, they could also achieve better outcomes for backers in corners handicap markets.

David Artell has managed Crewe for almost five years. In previous seasons they generally performed as well in corners counts as we should have anticipated from the number of goals they scored and conceded. In other words, this season so far has been unusual. It could carry on being unusual, but it might not.

Result-related odds for Burton v Crewe imply a 54 per cent chance of a home win, a 26 per cent chance of a draw and a 20 per cent chance of an away win. In previous seasons in EFL games with similar result expectations fair decimal odds about the visitors +3 Asian corners would typically have been shorter than 1.8. Today they should perhaps not be as short as on some other days, but they should perhaps still be shorter than 1.8.

Thought for the week

New Year’s Day for many people is a time for resolution. I think it should be a time for irresolution. Actually I think almost every day is an appropriate time for irresolution. By which I mean: hold on, do not get carried away, do not jump to conclusions, pause and reflect.

When I am able to do this I find I make fewer bad predictions. Why? I suspect that the right and full answer would include some or all of the following.

When a prediction fails it is because of unforeseen circumstances. Humans make a lot of bad predictions so there must be a lot of unforeseen circumstances.

If I am sure I can explain accurately what has just happened I will be sure I can predict accurately what will happen next. My prediction will be simple and unshakeable – and for that reason it becomes more likely to be wrong.

If I am not sure I can explain accurately what has just happened I have to accept that there may have been influences at play I either could not discern or cannot evaluate properly. My prediction of what will happen next must therefore contain at least some allowance for the possibility of new developments – and for that reason it becomes less likely to be wrong.

Philip Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania has spent nearly 40 years studying predictions, good and bad. He says the best predictions come from people in doubt. Joan Baez sang a song with the line: “Every day that passes I’m sure about a little bit less.” That is the ideal direction of travel. I make a lot of bad predictions – but fewer when I have doubts than when I am certain.

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