Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Angers +1 corner handicap 2pm Sunday
1pt 8-11 Betfair, Paddy Power

Bet on Angers taking at least as many corners as Lens in their Ligue 1 game on Sunday.

Back Angers +1 corner handicap at 8-11 with Betfair or Paddy Power. If Angers take as many or more corners the bet will win, otherwise it will lose.

Arguably, for the sort of game it seems reasonable to anticipate, the odds should be at least a bit shorter.

At the start of the weekend programme both teams were around mid-table. Lens were tenth with 37 points from 25 games, Angers were 13th with 29 points from 25 games.

The result-related markets regard visitors Lens as slightly more likely to score most goals than hosts Angers, and that seems defensible. Home/draw/away odds imply a 33 per cent chance of an Angers win, a 30 per cent chance of a draw and a 37 per cent chance of a Lens win.

In previous seasons in Ligue 1 games with similar result expectations fair odds about the home team on a corners handicap of +1 would typically have been shorter than 8-11.

Lens this season have performed better in corner-split markets than we should have anticipated from the number of goals they have scored and conceded. But so have Angers, and by about the same amount.

Sooner or later both teams will probably begin to do less well in corners-handicap markets. If Angers start tomorrow, before Lens, the bet will lose. But that may not happen. There is no obvious reason why the process should begin for Angers before Lens. Both alternatives are probably equally likely.

Any corners split is possible tomorrow, but it is arguable that the odds for Angers on a corners handicap of +1 should be at least a bit shorter than 8-11.

Thought for the week

So typical.

Tottenham beat Manchester City last Saturday. It was the first time City had lost in 16 Premier League games – they had won 14 and drawn one of the previous 15.

Tottenham had lost their last three. Doubts were beginning to be expressed about new manager Antonio Conte.

Not afterwards. Until Wednesday, when Tottenham lost at Burnley.

Conte had started by going unbeaten in nine Premier League games – six wins and three draws. Then, too, Conte was being congratulated.

Perhaps, with hindsight, we should not have expected Tottenham to carry on at quite such a fast rate. Twenty-one points from nine games is equivalent to 89 points over the 38 games of a whole Premier League season. Tottenham have never gained as many as 89 points in a season.

But they have never finished a season without any points, either, so we should not have expected them to carry on losing forever.

Teams generally do not accumulate points at a steady rate. It ebbs and flows, rises and falls. When it is rising we do not know when it will stop, but we can be confident that at some point it will. When it is falling we do not know when it will stop, but we can be confident that at some point it will.

A more or less permanent feature of football, it seems to me, is that for each team, around their own standard, results oscillate.

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