Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

QPR 0 Asian handicap cards
v Blackburn, 3pm Saturday
1pt 1.9 bet365

It is possible that bet365 have underestimated the chance of QPR receiving most cards in their Championship opener at Blackburn on Saturday. Back QPR 0 Asian handicap cards at decimal odds of 1.9, equivalent to the fractional price of 9-10.

Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If Blackburn’s total is higher the bet will lose, if both totals are the same stakes will be returned, and if QPR’s total is higher the bet will win.

The bare stats seem discouraging, but the bare stats might give a misleading impression of what could happen next.

Last season visitors to Blackburn’s Ewood Park won the cards count ten times, lost nine times and drew four times. That does not suggest 1.9 is a good price about QPR receiving most cards.

Last season Blackburn averaged 2.4 cards in home games and QPR averaged 2.0 cards in away games. That does not inspire optimism either.

But in previous seasons since they returned to the Championship – and fans were in attendance – Blackburn averaged 1.5 cards in home games, which was just below the norm for all home teams in the Championship. QPR in previous seasons typically averaged 2.1 cards in away games, which was the standard for all away teams in the Championship.

Both teams start this season with a new manager – Jon Dahl Tomasson at Blackburn, Michael Beale at QPR. Blackburn could carry on this season collecting cards at the same rate as last season. If that happens 1.9 will not be a good price about QPR receiving most cards on Saturday.

More likely than not, though, Blackburn will receive fewer cards this season. And it is possible that 1.9 underestimates the chance of QPR receiving most cards at Ewood Park.

Thought for the week

Is winning the Community Shield a sign that a team will go on to win the Premier League? Usually in the past it was not.

The Community Shield winners are one of the best teams from last season who have beaten another. Normally the Community Shield is contested by the reigning Premier League champions and FA Cup holders. It will be this year. Manchester City play Liverpool at the King Power Stadium on Saturday.

That is, coincidentally, the home of Leicester, who won the Community Shield last year but did not go on to win the Premier League.

Only six of the last 25 Community Shield winners finished the season as Premier League champions. Seven of the last 25 Community Shield runners-up became Premier League champions. So Community Shield runners-up did a bit better afterwards than Community Shield winners, but neither of them did particularly well.

This is slightly surprising because the Community Shield nearly always featured two teams who at the time were established near the top of the English game. Across quarter of a century, Manchester United were in the Community Shield 14 times, Chelsea 11 times, Arsenal ten, Manchester City six, Liverpool five – and Leicester two, Portsmouth and Wigan one.

Perhaps, though, there is a difference between being among the better teams and being absolutely dominant ones - as City and Liverpool have been.

City have won the Premier League in four of the last five seasons, Liverpool in the other. Over the last four seasons Liverpool gained only one point fewer than City.

Across quarter of a century there were seven Community Shields between teams who at the time were indisputably the absolutely dominant forces in English football. Overall the Community Shield winners still did less well afterwards than the runners-up, but every time one of them won the Premier League.

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