Kevin Pullein predictions: free football betting tips from the Soccer Boffin

Football tips, stats and philosophy from Kevin Pullein.

Best bet

Under six Asian total cards Fiorentina v Verona 2pm Sunday
1pt 1.85 bet365

The chance of referee Antonio Rapuano issuing a low number of cards in Sunday's Serie A game between Fiorentina and Verona may be better than bet365 imply.

Back under six Asian total cards at decimal odds of 1.85, equivalent to the fractional price of 17-20. Each yellow will count as one card and each red as two cards. If the total is below six the bet will win, if it is six stakes will be returned and if it is above six the bet will lose.

Fiorentina v Verona has the appearance of a fairly ordinary Serie A game. Fiorentina are a bigger club and seem rightly regarded in result-related markets as being more likely to score most goals – but not by a huge margin.

Average card counts in Serie A have been at about the same level for six and a bit seasons – since the start of 2016-17. In a typical game fair decimal odds about under 6 Asian total cards would be a lot shorter than 1.85. Should they be higher than usual today? Probably. Should they be as high as 1.85? Arguably not.

Rapuano is relatively new to the Italian top flight. This will be only his 16th game. Last season he did preside over some high cards make-ups – a 12, a nine and a seven. But overall he has delivered make-ups under six three times as often as he has delivered makeups over six.

Two of Verona’s previous three away games this season resulted in high card counts – seven last weekend at Lazio and eight last month at Bologna. Overall this season their games have featured a slightly higher than average number of cards, but that was not the case in either of the previous two seasons.

Fiorentina’s games featured a marginally above average number of cards last season – but not in either of the preceding two seasons, or this season.

Any game has the potential to produce a high cards make-up. But the prospect of a low total between Fiorentina and Verona may be better than bet365’s odds suggest.

Thought for the week

Huddersfield chief executive Dean Hoyle wanted Danny Schofield to be their next manager. Schofield was a coach who could have left after last season’s Championship playoff final defeat. Hoyle went into the Wembley dressing room and persuaded Schofield to stay.

When Carlos Corberan resigned in the summer, Schofield was promoted to manager. Hoyle said then: “Danny had been offered a job on the continent and he wanted to take it. As disappointed as we are to have lost Carlos, thank goodness we kept hold of Danny because he was the succession plan and always had been.”

On Wednesday, after nine games – eight in the Championship and one in the EFL Cup – Schofield was sacked.

I do not blame Hoyle for being wrong about Schofield - either the decision to hire him or the decision to fire him must have been wrong. But I do criticise owners and executives for deluding themselves that they have any idea whether a manager will or will not preside over good results.

They all have succession plans. Producing them is a waste of time. Suppose that whenever there was a managerial vacancy a recruiter interviewed everyone on their shortlist, arranged them in order of imagined merit – then appointed whoever was at the bottom. Would it make any difference? In the long term, I do not think it would. Probably the club would have as many highs and as many lows.

William Goldman was a Hollywood scriptwriter who authored a book called Adventures in the Screen Trade. “Nobody knows anything,” he wrote. “Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess.” It's the same in football.

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