Kevin Pullein: free football betting tips & analysis from the Soccer Boffin

Best bet

Motherwell +2.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.925 bet365 (3pm, Saturday)

Hibernian are having a good season and Motherwell have not been doing too well, so a home win is the most likely result when the teams meet today in the Scottish Premiership.

Hibs are also likely to take most corners, and they could win the corners count easily – but the chance of that happening may have been overestimated by bet365.

Back Motherwell +2.5 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds 1.925, equivalent to fractional odds of 37-40. If Hibs win the corners count by three or more the bet will fail, otherwise it will succeed

Hibs have won the corners count by three or more in only four of their 15 home games. Motherwell have lost the corners count by three or more in only five of their 15 away games.

Overall the numbers of corners for and against Hibs and the Well have been close to the norm for teams with comparable numbers of goals for and against. In other words, there has been nothing particularly unusual in the corners patterns in their games so far.

That could change, maybe starting today, but as things stand Motherwell +2.5 corners at 1.925 looks as though it could represent value for money.

Odds in the result-related markets imply a 55 per cent chance of a home win, a 26 per cent chance of a draw and a 19 per cent chance of an away win. Arguably, in that sort of game fair odds about the away team +2.5 corners would typically be shorter than 1.925.

New Motherwell manager Graham Alexander has been in charge for only four games. He previously managed Salford and Fleetwood in England. His teams were mostly successful, and he may not even know that they tended to fare less well in corners handicap markets than is usual for teams performing as well in goals markets. There is no reason why he should know, or even care. But they did.

If the same thing starts to happen to Motherwell they probably will lose the corners count today by three or more. But that development is not certain.

Thoughts for the week

Jannik Vestergaard tried to block Patrick Bamford’s shot for Leeds against Southampton on Tuesday but the ball went through his legs and beat goalkeeper Alex McCarthy. It was the opening goal in a 3-0 Premier League win.

Because Vestergaard was running, trying desperately to get across to Bamford, it was harder for him than it is for defenders in many other situations to prevent the ball from going between his legs. He should be excused.

Johan Cruyff, though, used to say that a defender should let an attacker shoot either side of them. Anything rather than let the ball go between their legs, because then it was more likely to go in.

In an autobiography called My Turn, Cruyff said: “What you must never do is let a shot on target slip through your legs. Then there’s nothing the goalie can do about it. It’s a mistake you see happening every week… Forwards often wait for the defender to give them an opportunity to shoot through his legs. Four times out of five they’ll score, because the goalie is relying on the defender to cover that part of the goal.”

Pedro Neto was booked for dallying over a corner in added time when Wolves led Leeds 1-0 in the Premier League last Friday.

Time-wasting must be the most unnecessary yellow-card offence in the rule book. It happens, and while it happens punishment is understandable. But there is no need for it to happen – at least, not in a way that reduces playing time.

The offence is defined in the Laws of the Game as “delaying the restart of play”. Why is the clock ticking down when there can be no play? Change that rule and get rid of another – plus a lot of associated aggravation.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport