Tour Championship: Steve Palmer's golf betting predictions & free tips

TV: Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Thursday

The Tour Championship in combination with the FedEx Cup has provided some thrilling finishes over its 12-year history, not least in the last one when Tiger Woods won the tournament and Justin Rose lifted the FedEx Cup. But the PGA Tour's principal sponsor was clearly unhappy with the split focus at the season finale. A new era starts this week.

For the first time, one player is guaranteed to be the centre of attention and one sponsor, dishing out an increased $15m to the champion on Sunday, will hog the headlines. The winner of the Tour Championship will win the FedEx Cup, with the players starting the winner-takes-all event on different scores. The FedEx Cup points leader, Justin Thomas, tees off at East Lake already on ten under par and with a two-shot advantage.

Woods, the Masters champion, has not qualified for the Tour Championship, nor has Open champion Shane Lowry.

Punters assessing the 30-runner field must decide whether to have their bets in the market which includes the FedEx Cup handicaps (Tour Championship/FedEx Cup winner) or in the separate Tour Championship 72-hole strokeplay winner market which ignores the FedEx handicaps.

• Tour Championship: first-round tips

Steve Palmer's top tip
Patrick Cantlay 9-2

Punters have plenty of options and decisions to make with regards to the PGA Tour season finale. There are two main markets to choose from and many traditionalists may prefer to focus on the standard 72-hole strokeplay betting which has been their Tour Championship diet for more than three decades.

Some may argue that the best angle is to oppose the FedEx Cup leaders in the 72-hole strokeplay market as they are likely to play more defensively to protect their score while the chasing pack go on the offensive. But defensive golf is usually extremely effective on the dangerous terrain of East Lake and gung-ho tactics typically end in tears.

A more sensible option is arguably to ignore the 72-hole strokeplay market altogether, which is what the 30 competitors will be doing. There is no trophy or glory on offer to whoever cards the lowest 72-hole total this week – it is the complete irrelevance the sponsors were hoping it would become. Preference is for betting on the event with the handicaps in place, particularly as the front two in the market are on offer at value prices.

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As mentioned, East Lake is a grinders' track, where avoiding disaster on the 12 par-fours and four par-threes is the key to success, and having ten or eight birdies 'on your card' before you tee off is an enormous advantage. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario where all the distant pursuers slowly but surely unravel playing aggressively in a bid to close their various deficits, while the FedEx Cup leaders safely play percentage golf, retaining their edge throughout.

Thomas, with East Lake form figures of 6-2-7, deserves plenty of respect at the head of the leaderboard and the market. He can clearly act on this turf and was sensational in winning the BMW Championship last week. Thomas though, arguably the best in the business at hitting woods from the fairway, has only two par-fives at which to gun this week. All things considered, the 5-2 Thomas is fair, but not as attractive as the 9-2 about Patrick Cantlay, getting five places with Betfred. That looks a rock-solid investment about the man lurking in second place in the standings, eight under par, two behind Thomas and ahead of everyone else.

Cantlay, a formidable all-rounder with an ice-cool temperament, will relish his position in the thick of things for the $15m prize. Victory would be the culmination of a rapid rise from when he returned from injury in February 2017, qualifying for the Tour Championship that year from just 11 starts. He was entitled to make a hesitant opening to his East Lake debut and carded a first-round 74, but was four under par for his final three rounds and finished 20th.

Cantlay lost his form prior to last year's Tour Championship, sharing 55th spot in the 69-runner BMW in the penultimate event, then finishing 21st at East Lake, but this time he will tee up there brimming with confidence. Twenty starts this season have yielded 15 top-20 finishes, ten top tens, six top fives, two runner-up spots, and victory in the Memorial in June.

Cantlay has become one of the most consistent performers on the planet and a closing 65 for second place in the BMW Championship on Sunday has put him in great shape for FedEx glory. East Lake suits his style of play and he can do himself justice there at the third time of asking.

Those playing catch-up from deep on the leaderboard face a daunting task. Of course, there has never been a staggered start before, but in the 432 regular PGA Tour strokeplay events this decade, only two winners have emerged from ten shots or more behind after 18 holes.

And Cantlay is unlikely to provide the chasing pack with much encouragement. He found 16 greens in regulation in round four of the BMW. He tops the PGA Tour bogey-avoidance statistics, making so few mistakes, and he lies third in the PGA Tour par-four performance stats, so will be looking forward to playing two more par-fours than usual this week.

Five of the last six FedEx Cup champions arrived at East Lake second in the standings, so it seems the pressure of leading has got to the top dog. If Thomas wobbles in the spotlight, Cantlay should be ready to pounce.

Next best
Rickie Fowler 66-1

If anyone is going to play the superhero role this week, it may be Rickie Fowler, who has an eight-shot deficit to overcome over his great pal Thomas. Fowler, who carded nothing worse than a bogey in finishing 11th in the BMW on Sunday, opened and closed with a 65 in last year's Tour Championship and has shown he can go low there.

Fowler threatened to win the Masters last year, enjoys Georgia, and is the sort of positive character who seems likely to revel in the freedom of the come-from-behind bid, rather than moan about the unfairness and his remote chance. He has got the power and putting stroke to produce fireworks. The 30-year-old is getting married in October and could pay for the wedding expenses with a bumper FedEx cheque. Betfred are going five places and 66-1, although 70-1 is on offer elsewhere with four places.

Others to note
Brooks Koepka
The long-time FedEx standings leader lost top spot last week and will be kicking himself. He finished 26th of 30 runners at East Lake last year and may struggle to overcome Thomas and Cantlay. Koepka could play with a chip on his shoulder, as it is madness that someone can finish 2-1-2-4 in the Majors and not be the top seed for this event. Unless he gets back in front quickly, the angry and agitated Koepka seen in the BMW could remain.

Xander Schauffele
The 2017 Tour Championship winner was seventh last year and is well suited to the challenge of East Lake. The Californian is capable, but starts seven shots behind.

Hideki Matsuyama
The Japanese ace fired two 63s in the BMW last week and has found top form at a handy time. Like Schauffele, he could make headway from seven shots adrift.

Gary Woodland
The US Open champion has lost his form, with new arrivals in his family providing a welcome distraction, but, like Schauffele and Matsuyama, he could make a charge from seven behind.

Rory McIlroy
The 2016 Tour Championship and FedEx Cup winner is still well in the hunt from five shots back, but he has appeared fragile under intense pressure in recent weeks.

Jon Rahm
The swashbuckling Spaniard is six shots off the pace, but playing well enough to make inroads. He could run into a place.

Staking plan
P Cantlay to win Tour Championship/FedEx Cup
5pts each-way 9-2 Betfred
R Fowler to win Tour Championship/FedEx Cup
1pt each-way 66-1 Betfred

Tour Championship lowdown

Course East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Georgia
Prize money $46m ($15m to the winner)
Length 7,385 yards
Par 70
Field 30
Course records- 72 holes 257 Tiger Woods (2007) 18 holes 60 Zach Johnson (2007)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Brandt Snedeker, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele

When to bet By 4.40pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports from 6pm Thursday

Time difference Georgia is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - BMW Championship 1 J Thomas (14-1), 2 P Cantlay (22-1), 3 H Matsuyama (50-1), 4 T Finau (40-1), T5 J Rahm (11-1), T5 B Snedeker (60-1)

Course overview East Lake is the curtain-closer to the US Tour season, with the most successful performers of the year ending their Stateside campaign in the Tour Championship. East Lake has hosted this event in 1998, 2000, 2002 and from 2004 onwards.

The famous course was designed by Tom Bendelow and Donald Ross, but Rees Jones took charge of a redesign in 1994 and at the end of 2007 (he switched all the greens from bentgrass to Bermuda).

It is extremely long for a par-70 and a SubAir drainage system means firm, fast greens are almost certain, so scoring is never particularly low. There are only two par-fives – the sixth and the 18th – and the best winning total in the last decade is 13 under par.

The story of last year Tiger Woods ended a PGA Tour victory drought of more than five years by fending off Billy Horschel for Tour Championship glory, while Justin Rose claimed the FedEx Cup.

Weather forecast Hot and humid, with the threat of thunderstorms all week, and light breezes throughout.

Type of player suited to the challenge The fairways are notoriously difficult to hit at East Lake, so accurate drivers should prosper. There are only two par-fives and no easy birdies, so players who like to grind out plenty of pars can flourish.

Key attribute Accuracy

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