Steve Palmer's Sentry Tournament of Champions third-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 8.15pm Saturday

Best bets

Sungjae Im top-five finish
2pts 7-4 general

Sam Burns to win twoball
2pts 8-11 bet365

Story so far

Cameron Smith has continued his love affair with Hawaii this week - the former Sony Open champion has forged a three-shot lead through two rounds of the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Smith's only PGA Tour victory as an individual came at Waialae Country Club, Honolulu, in the 2020 Sony - he beat Brendan Steele in a playoff. His Sentry form figures (17-24) were humdrum prior to this week, but rounds of 65 and 64 look set to significantly bolster his record.

Smith, an ante-post 22-1 chance, has become 13-8 favourite with 36 holes to play. The Australian admitted he has not practised much since finishing fourth in the RSM Classic on his last competitive outing (November 21), but he arrived a week early in Hawaii to prepare.

World number one, Jon Rahm, is tied for second place and 100-30 going into the weekend. The Spaniard was disappointed with his putting in round two, but struck his ball well enough for a second consecutive bogey-free 66.

Pre-tournament favourite, Justin Thomas, is tied for 32nd place, 12 shots off the pace. Jordan Spieth and Phil Mickelson are only one shot better off, while world number two, Collin Morikawa, is nine shots behind Smith and also needs a spectacular weekend to have any chance.

Leaderboard
-17 Cameron Smith
-14 Jon Rahm, Daniel Berger
-13 Patrick Cantlay
-12 Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im
-11 Kevin Na
-10 Sam Burns, Seamus Power, Si Woo Kim, Xander Schauffele, Stewart Cink, Marc Leishman, Brooks Koepka

Best prices
13-8 C Smith, 100-30 J Rahm, 13-2 D Berger, 7 P Cantlay, 20 H Matsuyama, S Im, 33 X Schauffele, 50 S Burns, B Koepka, 66 bar

Third-round preview

The Plantation Course at Kapalua is wide open and the Sentry Tournament of Champions appeared wide open before it started. Two days into the event, it is still extremely difficult to be confident about who will be lifting the trophy on Sunday.

Punters are at least armed with more information after 36 holes, with several players using new equipment and all the competitors having explained what they have been up to in the Christmas holidays.

Cameron Smith was not able to go back home to Australia, so spent much of his Christmas fishing in Florida. The carefree Brisbane boy hardly touched a club, but he knuckled down for a week at Kapalua prior to the Sentry.

Smith, a Titleist man, had a more settled golf bag than most going into the Sentry, and has quickly hit his stride. A hot putter made up for some loose irons in round two, but Smith usually carries a sizzling flat stick and it should remain in his bag for the weekend.

Smith relishes coastal tracks - and the forecast for some moderate breeze on Saturday will appeal to him - but 13-8 with so many superstars lurking behind is unattractive. Smith pre-tournament backers can be on great terms with themselves, but the boat has been well and truly missed for everyone else. He has won only once as an individual on the PGA Tour and the odds are skinny considering the near certainty that at least one of the world-class pursuers will go birdie crazy in round three.

Jon Rahm, bogey-free through 36 holes, has been spiky at reporters all week. Initially miffed that the media were making too much of his supposed time off, the moody Spaniard has been irked by suggestions that he struggles over the opening few holes at Kapalua.

Rahm says he practised fairly hard over Christmas and does not feel much rust in his game. And he has explained that nobody typically makes many birdies over the first few holes at Kapalua. Rahm seems pumped-up and his ball-striking will greatly encourage his fans. As has always been the case at Kapalua, though, he has struggled on the greens.

If Rahm continues to be frustrated on the Plantation Course dancefloors, then Racing Post Sport pre-tournament headline recommendation, Patrick Cantlay, will have an excellent opportunity to pick up another title.

Cantlay, 16-1 at the start of the week having not competed for three months, spent a fortnight preparing for this tournament with his coach at Kapalua. The results of those sessions have been encouraging - strong putting on Thursday and strong ball-striking on Friday. The putter went ice cold on Friday - he missed seven putts from inside 15 feet - but Cantlay will be confident of setting up another raft of chances on Saturday.

Cantlay was one under par through 12 holes of round one, making a slow start after his long break, but he is 12 under par for his last 24 holes and bang in contention. He has taken ten shots at the 18th over the first two rounds, so will be especially keen to conquer that hole.

The winner will probably come from the first six names on the leaderboard - they are all well suited to this challenge and comfortable at Kapalua. Hopefully Cantlay can stay in the thick of things, while Smith, Rahm, Daniel Berger, Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama tread water.

Im, though, seems unlikely to disappear. The Korean, fifth on his Kapalua debut last year, seems to love this assignment. He has his beloved Bermuda greens to putt upon and the Shriners Open champion should be a fixture on the leaderboard throughout. The 7-4 that he finishes in the top five seems generous.

Third-round twoball punters are pointed towards PGA Tour form-horse and rising star, Sam Burns, who can be fancied to outgun Kevin Na (10.25pm) on a long, soft track.

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