Steve Palmer's Olympics men's golf predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Olympics men's competition at Kasumigaseki Country Club.

Where to watch

Live coverage on BBC One & BBC One red button from 11.30pm Wednesday

Best bets

Hideki Matsuyama
4pts 14-1 Hills

Viktor Hovland
4pts 12-1 general

Paul Casey
3pts 16-1 general

Sungjae Im
1.5pts each-way 28-1 general

Thomas Pieters
1pt each-way 66-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

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The American trio of Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Justin Thomas headline the betting for the men's Olympics golf event in a strong field despite the withdrawals of Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau.

When golf returned to the Olympics in 2016, most of the highest-ranked players in the world snubbed the event, but Morikawa, Schauffele and Thomas are all inside the top five. Has the late introduction of Patrick Reed into the US camp, though, unsettled the team?

After Reed took a controversial free drop on his way to winning the Farmers Insurance Open in January, Schauffele was outspoken in his criticism, then reports broke of someone using a Twitter 'burner account' to pillory Thomas.

Regardless of the potential disharmony, Open champion Morikawa may not find a long, soft course to his liking, Schauffele is on a long losing streak, and Thomas has been struggling to find his A-game lately.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Hideki Matsuyama 14-1

Pressure has been part and parcel of Hideki Matsuyama's life throughout his professional career - he was always Japan's great hope for a first Major title - and Masters glory in April took a huge weight off his shoulders. With a Green Jacket in his locker, he can approach the task of winning a gold medal in his home country without fear.

Matsuyama rose to the occasion in the 2019 Zozo Championship - the first PGA Tour event in Japan - finishing runner-up to Tiger Woods. The course conditions that week were similar to what he faces on the East Course at Kasumigaseki Country Club this week - and a similar performance can be expected on the rain-softened terrain.

Matsuyama is the only course winner in the field - he won the 2009 Japan Junior Championship by four shots on the East Course. And he won the 2010 Asian Amateur Championship by five shots on the neighbouring West Course.

A positive Covid test kept Matsuyama away from the Open, but that could prove a blessing in disguise. He has been symptom-free throughout his Covid issues and has had more time to prepare at the Olympics venue.

Next best bet

Viktor Hovland 12-1

The main potential party-pooper for the Japanese this week is brilliant Norwegian youngster Viktor Hovland. He won the BMW International Open a month ago, then chilled out in Norway for a fortnight, before finishing 12th in the Open, closing with a 66.

Hovland is fresh and confident for his Olympics assignment, and he could fall in love with the venue. Hovland made his name as a college star at Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma State's home course is Karsten Creek, which has zoysia-grass fairways, bentgrass greens and was designed by Tom Fazio. This week he tackles zoysia fairways and bentgrass greens on a course renovated by Fazio in 2014.

Hovland finished third in the Wells Fargo Championship on another Fazio design in May and should be in his element this week.

Other selections

Paul Casey 16-1

Sungjae Im 28-1

Thomas Pieters 66-1

Complete a three-pronged win-only attack with Paul Casey, who can follow the lead of Justin Rose and win a gold medal for Great Britain. This week's venue is made for good drivers - it is long, soft and tree-lined - and Casey is typically supreme off the tee. There is a feel of Wentworth to many holes - not surprising when you consider the links between Kasumigaseki co-designer Charles H. Alison and Wentworth creator Harry Colt - and Casey has won at Wentworth.

After a positive Open in which he was bowled over by the crowd support on his way to 15th place, Casey can threaten gold in Japan. He triumphed on the Korean Tour in 2011 and has twice won European Tour events in China.

The best each-way options could be Sungjae Im and Thomas Pieters. Im skipped the Open to prepare thoroughly for the Olympics, knowing that a medal will make him exempt from the mandatory two years of military service he otherwise faces, and the Korean is strong enough mentally to rise to the challenge.

Im was magnificent on his Presidents Cup debut in Melbourne, then second behind Dustin Johnson in last year's Masters. Im spent two years competing on the Japan Tour at the start of his career and finished third behind Woods and Matsuyama in the 2019 Zozo Championship.

Pieters, who won the 2018 World Cup for Belgium alongside Thomas Detry in Melbourne, has the same sidekick again for another far-flung mission. Pieters was fourth in the last Olympics, which was played on a course with zoysia grass, and sixth in the 2018 US PGA at Bellerive - another track with the same unusual turf being used this week. This is a tournament in which the best ball-strikers should prosper - and Pieters fits into that category.

Players to note

Corey Conners
The Canadian's tee-to-green class counts for plenty this week - and he was sixth in the 2019 Zozo.

Shane Lowry
The Irishman has been in solid form and impressed at the Open. His brother is caddying this week.

Guido Migliozzi
The Italian, fourth in the US Open, is full of form and confidence, and enjoys tree-lined tracks.

Kasumigaseki course guide

Course East Course, Kasumigaseki Country Club, Kawagoe, Saitama, Japan
Length 7,466 yards
Par 71
Field 60
Format 72 holes of strokeplay with no cut

Course winner taking part Hideki Matsuyama (2009 Japan Junior Championship)

When to bet By 11.30pm on Wednesday

When to watch Sporadic live coverage on BBC One & BBC One red button from 11.30pm on Wednesday

Time difference Japan is eight hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Course type Parkland

Course overview For the first time since 1904, golf was in the Olympics in 2016, and a new course was built especially for the occasion in Rio, Brazil. The venue had a capacity for 2,500 seated spectators and 17,500 standing, but the Tokyo Olympics is spectator-free. The East Course at Kasumigaseki - 40 minutes north of Tokyo - was designed in 1929 and given a renovation in 2014 by Tom Fazio in preparation for the Olympics. It has staged the Japan Open, most recently in 1995. The three par-fives (fifth, eighth and 14th) are long and three of the four par-threes are more than 200 yards apiece. The long par-four 18th is the most difficult hole on the course. Dense sets of trees line the fairways. The fairways are Zoysia grass and welcoming. The greens are bentgrass and lots of them are elevated. Hideki Matsuyama won the 2009 Japan Junior by four shots at the East Course and the 2010 Asian Amateur Championship by five shots at the neighbouring West Course.

Story of 2016 A highly motivated Justin Rose took gold for Great Britain at the Olympic Golf Course, defeating Sweden's Henrik Stenson by two shots, with Matt Kuchar claiming bronze for USA.

Weather forecast Japan's hot and rainy summer makes for soft courses at this time of the year. The weather will be hot, humid and thundery throughout, with temperatures up to 34C and bursts of rain. Hardly any wind over the first three rounds, but some light to moderate breeze expected for Sunday.

Type of player suited to the challenge Tree-lined fairways and steep-faced bunkers will punish the seriously errant, but the targets off the tee are fairly wide. Charles H. Alison, one of the co-designers of the course, used to work a lot with Harry Colt, who crafted Wentworth, and there are similarities between the two tracks in terms of the serious penalties for wild driving. The layout has been likened to Quail Hollow since Tom Fazio got involved. Expect the best ball-strikers to prosper on a long par 71.

Key attribute Power

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