Steve Palmer's American Express predictions & free golf betting tips

Steve Palmer's golf tips, best bets and player analysis for The American Express in La Quinta, California, on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Best bets

Patrick Cantlay
5pts 9-1 bet365

Adam Hadwin
2pts each-way 90-1 bet365

Andrew Putnam
1pt each-way 160-1 bet365

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World number one Jon Rahm makes his second start of the year this week - the Spaniard is favourite for The American Express - and he is looking to build on what was a solid but ultimately disappointing Sentry Tournament of Champions.

Rahm played well in all departments in the Sentry, quickly shedding his Christmas rust, but he could not get ahead of inspired Aussie Cameron Smith and had to settle for the runner-up spot. There seems a reasonable chance that the AmEx could provide a similar story.

Rahm won this event in 2018, was sixth in 2019 and has not teed up in it since. The driver is his best weapon, but the three tracks employed for this event are short and easy, lessening the impact of his favourite club. A 20-something under-par score will almost certainly be needed to win this and Rahm will not be able to afford one of his flat spells with the putter.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Patrick Cantlay 9-1

The FedEx Cup champion and PGA Tour Player of the Year can upstage Jon Rahm this week - Patrick Cantlay can repeat his recent East Lake success and win the American Express.

Cantlay took three months away from competition after a fantastic Ryder Cup debut, fully recharging his batteries, and he spent a fortnight at Kapalua practising for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The sessions went incredibly well - his coach Jamie Mulligan was purring about his pupil's performance - and Cantlay said he had a kid-like passion for the golf course after his break.

Level par for the first eight holes of the Sentry was an understandably slow start, but he ended the event at 26 under par, alone in fourth place. His ball-striking was excellent and a title challenge would have resulted had Cantlay been a little sharper on and around the greens.

In his second start of the year, the cool Californian should have his short-game in better nick, and home-state dancefloors are the ideal foil. La Quinta is a two-hour car journey from where Cantlay was born and he loves teeing up in the Golden State. He won the Zozo Championship in California in 2020, defeating Rahm again in a tight finish, and Patty Ice has threatened in the AmEx as well.

Cantlay's last two AmEx starts have resulted in ninth spot in 2019 and a runners-up cheque last year. He closed with a spellbinding 61 at the Stadium Course, falling one shot shy of Si Woo Kim.

Next best bet

Adam Hadwin 90-1

Two-time Presidents Cup star Adam Hadwin, a dual winner on the Korn Ferry Tour before making his PGA Tour breakthrough in the 2017 Valspar Championship, adores The American Express. From 2016 onwards, the AmEx course rota has remained largely unchanged, and Hadwin's form figures are 6-2-3-2-32. This is his first start of 2022, but that was the case in 2017 when he fired a third-round 59 at La Quinta on his way to second place.

Hadwin's beloved La Quinta was removed from the rota last year - the Tour wanted the field contained at PGA West because of the pandemic - so that may explain why the Canadian failed to contend 12 months ago. La Quinta is back this year, so results of 6-2-3-2 when La Quinta is in play can be bolstered.

Hadwin showed signs of life at the end of last year, finishing sixth in the Shriners Open in October, and the Arizona-based swinger seems a massive price given his tournament record.

Other selection

Andrew Putnam 160-1

Complete a three-pronged attack with Andrew Putnam - a neat and tidy player well suited to this assignment. He lacks driving distance, but that is not serious in the AmEx - as highlighted by the names of Mark Wilson, Brian Gay, Jason Dufner, Adam Long and Andrew Landry being on the recent honours board.

If you putt well in the AmEx, you have got a chance, and Putnam can usually be relied upon with flat stick in hand. Form figures of 17-34-10-21 in this event can be improved upon. Last year, he enjoyed four top-eight finishes, including a runner-up effort in the Barracuda Championship.

Putnam has won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour, once on the PGA Tour, and last week he enjoyed a lovely warm-up spin in the Sony Open. With a new caddie on board, Putnam carded four rounds in the 60s for 27th spot, and the same can be expected this week.

Players to note

Scottie Scheffler
The Texan, arguably the best maiden on the PGA Tour, finished third on his AmEx debut in 2020. His confidence has been sky-high since the Ryder Cup. Dangerman on first start of year.

Sungjae Im
The Korean suffered a shock missed cut in the Sony Open last week, enduring a rare weekend off, but a solid AmEx record suggests he will quickly bounce back to the leaderboard.

Kramer Hickok
The accurate plodder, runner-up in the Travelers Championship last season, is well suited to the demands of the AmEx and could run into a place.

AmEx courses guide

Courses TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta, California
Prize money $7.6m ($1.206m to the winner)
Lengths Stadium 7,140 yards, Nicklaus 7,181 yards, La Quinta 7,060 yards
Pars All 72
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round four
Highest-ranked players taking part (world rankings in brackets) Jon Rahm (1), Patrick Cantlay (4), Scottie Scheffler (14), Tony Finau (17), Abraham Ancer (20)
Course records - 18 holes:TPC Stadium Course 61 Patrick Cantlay (2021); Nicklaus Tournament Course 59 Harrison Frazar (2008 Q School); La Quinta 59 Adam Hadwin (2017)

Course winners taking part(in PGA Tour events featuring TPC Stadium Course at PGA West) Jason Dufner, Hudson Swafford, Jon Rahm, Adam Long, Andrew Landry, Si Woo Kim

When to bet By 3pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Sony Open 1 H Matsuyama (18-1), 2 R Henley (35-1), T3 K Kisner (35-1), S Power (50-1), T5 M Thompson (200-1), L Glover (160-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview Various layouts have been used for this multi-course pro-am through the years, which was previously the Bob Hope Classic, Humana Challenge, CareerBuilder Challenge and Desert Classic. The Stadium Course returned after a 29-year absence to act as host in 2016, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course made its debut, joining La Quinta CC for a three-course event. The same rota has been used every year since (apart from last year - for which La Quinta took a year off) with one round played at each of the tracks over the first three days, and the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course on Sunday. The pro-am element returns this year. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is full of deep bunkers and water, and has similarities to the TPC Sawgrass. It usually plays harder than the Nicklaus Tournament Course, with La Quinta the easiest of the trio. The Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were both used for the PGA Tour Qualifying School Finals in 2002, 2006 and 2008.

Story of last year Patrick Cantlay closed with a 61, but Si Woo Kim repelled him by a shot to take the title

Weather forecast Sunny and warm, with light to moderate breezes, temperatures peaking at 28C

Type of player suited to the challenge Having a hot putter was enough to contend in this tournament in the past, but the Stadium Course has put more of an emphasis on ball-striking. Putting arguably remains most important, but the penalties for errant tee-to-green work are more severe, so strong all-rounders are favoured

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight Only one of the last 14 winners of this event was making his first start of the year

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