Steve Palmer's American Express final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Jon Rahm to win American Express
4pts 4-7 bet365

Davis Thompson without Jon Rahm
2pts 23-20 BoyleSports

Scottie Scheffler to win 6.01pm threeball
2pts 20-21 bet365

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Story so far

Jon Rahm narrowly failed in his bid to complete three consecutive rounds of 64 in The American Express, but a 64, 64, 65 burst has put the Spaniard at 23 under par, enough for a share of the 54-hole lead.

Rahm, a general 6-1 pre-tournament favourite, has shortened to 4-7 through three excellent rounds on three different courses. The field has played a round each at the Dye Stadium Course, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club, and those who have made the cut will gather at the Dye Stadium Course for the final 18 holes.

Rahm, the 2018 AmEx champion, is tied for the lead with Davis Thompson - a rising star who used to be world number one amateur. The pacesetters are four shots clear of the rest of the field.

Scottie Scheffler, six shots behind, will still feel he has a small chance of victory, but Patrick Cantlay, the other player tucked in behind Rahm in the ante-post betting, has mission impossible from an 11-shot Sunday deficit.

Leaderboard
-23 Jon Rahm, Davis Thompson
-19 JT Poston, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-18 Tom Kim, Harry Higgs, Sam Burns, Taylor Montgomery

Best prices
4-7 J Rahm, 100-30 D Thompson, 28 JT Poston, 33 C Bezuidenhout, T Kim, 40 T Montgomery, S Burns, 50 S Scheffler, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Jon Rahm's putter went cold in the final few holes of round three, leaving the tournament favourite fuming about missing out on another 64, but the world number four will still be extremely confident about successfully completing his mission.

Rahm's angry outburst about the course set-ups during last year's AmEx was off-putting for many punters, but he dismissed his comments as a fit of pique in his pre-tournament media conference and explained his affection for this ancient pro-am.

Rahm has been focused and firing from the off, eager to further climb the world rankings. He is disillusioned that his recent brilliance has not been enough to threaten the rankings summit. He feels he is the best player in the world on current form.

Only the inactive Rory McIlroy could get close to having a constructive argument with Rahm about who is top dog as the calendar moves to February. Rahm has won three of his last five events, starting the year with a 27-under-par masterclass in the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

High-rollers will be sniffing around the 4-7 about Rahm winning a second AmEx. The 28-year-old has started the year in positive mood and, crucially, he has been in the best putting form of his career. The end of round three was just a blip - Rahm can be expected to start the final round rolling his rock with assurance again.

Given Davis Thompson has never contended for a PGA Tour title, Rahm can be fancied to assert his superiority in their duel. Thompson is a class act destined for a great future, but staring down Jon Rahm for a maiden PGA Tour triumph would be an incredible breakthrough.

That said, Thompson closed round three with a calmness and poise, and a total capitulation seems unlikely, even with the pressure going up several levels on Sunday. Playing in a Sunday threeball, with JT Poston making up the group, is helpful, rather than an eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with Rahmbo.

The often flaky long-game of JT Poston will be tested by the Stadium Course, while Christiaan Bezuidenhout will do well to follow up his Saturday 62 at the Nicklaus Course with anything similar at the Stadium.

Jon Rahm first, Davis Thompson second and Tom Kim third may be how the tournament ends, so Thompson and Kim are worth considering in the 'without Rahm' markets.

Rahm, Thompson and Poston are scheduled to tee off at 6.45pm UK and Ireland time.

It is not just Rahm who has an eye on the world rankings at the moment - Scottie Scheffler knows every position counts in his bid to regain world-number-one status. With Scheffler concentrating to the finish line, he looks a solid option against Robby Shelton and Seb Munoz in the 6.01pm match.

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