Steve Palmer's free predictions and golf betting tips for the US PGA Championship: Our top tipster bids to follow up last week's 60-1 and 40-1 winners

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When to bet on the US PGA Championship

By midday today

Where can I watch the US PGA Championship

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from midday today

Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship predictions

Rory McIlroy
8pts each-way 9-2 bet365

Davis Thompson
1.5pts each-way 125-1 bet365, Hills

Patrick Rodgers
1pt each-way 350-1 bet365

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Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship preview

Rarely does a Major struggle for a clear favourite, but that is the case for this week's US PGA Championship, with Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy contesting market leadership. Some bookmakers make Scheffler favourite, some have opted for McIlroy, while many find it impossible to separate them.

Scheffler may be getting too much respect. His runaway Byron Nelson victory last time out was impressive, but he does not have any positive Quail Hollow experience. He has never played in the Wells Fargo Championship at the course, even when it became a PGA Tour Signature Event. Last year his wife was about to give birth, so he skipped the event.

Scheffler's only competitive experience of the course came in the 2022 Presidents Cup when he was a massive flop. The United States scored 17.5 points, but Scheffler was his team's joint-lowest scorer, contributing only half a point before losing his Sunday singles match to Sebastian Munoz.

Quail Hollow has changed a lot since 2022 and Scheffler has not competed there since the venue switched to ryegrass. His caddie Ted Scott, formerly Bubba Watson's bagman, is experienced at the course, so that is helpful for Scheffler, but the world number one lacks the comfort level of others.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 9-2

The most likely winner of the US PGA is arguably Rory McIlroy, who adores Quail Hollow and loves this particular Major. The course set-ups for the US PGA usually appeal to McIlroy and he can lift the Wanamaker Trophy for a third time on Sunday.

McIlroy has arrived with an enormous spring in his step, having claimed the prize he craved above all others in April – a Green Jacket. Masters glory meant he joined the most elite club in sport, becoming a Grand Slam winner, and he can turn up for Majors feeling relaxed and loose. A living legend since the Masters, the 36-year-old can win a sixth Major title this week.

McIlroy is dangerous anywhere in his current mood, but later today he gets to tee off at his favourite PGA Tour venue, making him clearly the man to beat. He won at Quail Hollow for a fourth time last year, closing with a 65 for a five-shot triumph, leading the field a merry dance in a May event on ryegrass fairways. History could be about to repeat itself.

McIlroy was disgruntled at the 2017 PGA as course changes including fresh, firm and inconsistent greens meant the track did not play like the old Quail Hollow, but further renovations later restored the layout to Rory's liking. He was bouncing happily around his beloved Charlotte playground 12 months ago.

This year could not have gone much better for the Northern Irishman. He has won the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, the Players Championship and the Masters, laying his Augusta ghosts to rest, and even the weather gods appear to be helping him. An early week deluge has drenched the course, making it even more attractive to long drivers. Nobody is better equipped to tackle it than McIlroy.

His maiden PGA Tour title came at Quail Hollow in 2010 – a four-shot victory – then he won the Wells Fargo by seven shots in 2015. He has posted ten top-ten finishes in 14 Tour starts there, his scoring average is 69.48 and he is 55 shots further under par than anyone else at this venue.

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Next best bet

Davis Thompson 125-1

Former world number one amateur Davis Thompson won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2022 – his first season on that circuit – and the victory came in North Carolina. He comes from the neighbouring state of Georgia and and loves competing in this region.

Thompson nearly got off the mark as a PGA Tour rookie in the 2023 American Express, getting pipped by Jon Rahm, then a maiden title arrived last summer with a four-shot romp in the John Deere Classic. He had finished ninth in the US Open the previous month, a few days after his 25th birthday, clearly coming of age as a golfer.

Thompson started this year in inconsistent fashion, mixing amazing rounds with awful ones, but from the Players Championship onwards he has been solid. Over the last couple of months he has not missed any cuts, finishing tenth at Sawgrass, 27th in Houston, 46th on his Masters debut, 27th in the Heritage in Signature Event company, then 23rd last week in the Truist Championship.

Thompson's driving was excellent at the Heritage, while his short game saved him in the Truist, where he closed with a 67 on Sunday. Maybe he can put it all together at Quail Hollow, where he narrowly missed the cut in his only Wells Fargo start as an out-of-form rookie maiden in 2023. He has returned this week as a Tour champion, 50th in the world rankings, and well capable of contending at a juicy price.

Other selection

Patrick Rodgers 350-1

The PGA has produced plenty of first-time Major winners and 23 of the last 39 champions were breaking their Major duck. Thompson, typically a strong driver and plenty long enough to handle a soft course, seems a lively candidate, while Patrick Rodgers may also enter the equation.

Rodgers, an amateur superstar who matched records set by Tiger Woods at Stanford University, turned pro in 2014 and won on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2015. Three months later, he finished second to McIlroy in the 2015 Wells Fargo at Quail Hollow.

Rodgers has finished second on the PGA Tour four times, losing two playoffs, and he has also finished third four times. Maybe an overdue breakthrough can arrive at the age of 32.

He finished third in the Genesis Invitational, a Signature Event, in February and has had six top-25s this year, including 15th place in the Byron Nelson the week before last.

Rodgers got a late call-up to the Truist after Jason Day withdrew, dashing from Myrtle Beach to Pennsylvania and understandably starting the event slowly, although he closed with three consecutive 69s for 42nd place. Rodgers has made the cut in six of his eight previous Majors, is loaded with power and loves Quail Hollow, so he can make a mockery of his enormous odds.

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Course guide for the US PGA Championship

• Course Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina
• Prize money $18.5m ($3.3m to the winner)
• Length 7,626 yards
• Par 71 – three par-five holes; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
• Field 156 The cut Top 70 plus ties progress to round three
• Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Rory McIlroy (2), Xander Schauffele (3), Collin Morikawa (4), Justin Thomas (5)
• Course records - 72 holes 265 Wyndham Clark (2023) 18 holes 61 Rory McIlroy (2015)
• Course winners taking part Rory McIlroy (four times), Lucas Glover, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Jason Day, Max Homa, Wyndham Clark
• Playoff format A three-hole aggregate-score playoff, sudden-death thereafter
• When to bet By midday today
• When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from midday today
• Time difference North Carolina is five hours behind the UK and Ireland
• Last week – Truist Championship 1 S Straka (40-1), T2 S Lowry (35-1), J Thomas (16-1), T4 J Bridgeman (100-1), P Cantlay (20-1), T Fleetwood (25-1), T7 S Jaeger (125-1), Cameron Young (175-1), R McIlroy (9-2), K Mitchell (75-1); Myrtle Beach Classic 1 R Fox (40-1), T2 M Hughes (20-1), H Higgs (200-1), 4 K Yu (33-1), T5 N Norgaard (45-1), A Smalley (33-1)
• Course type Parkland
• Course overview Quail Hollow staged a PGA Tour event from 2003 through 2016, starting off as the Wachovia Championship, becoming the Quail Hollow Championship, then the Wells Fargo Championship. The Wells Fargo moved to Eagle Point in 2017, the year that Quail Hollow staged the US PGA, which was won by Justin Thomas. Quail Hollow hosted the Wells Fargo from 2018 through 2021, then TPC Potomac took over in 2022 as Quail Hollow was needed for the Presidents Cup, which saw a 17.5-12.5 USA victory. The course was used for the 2023 and 2024 Wells Fargo. This will be the first Quail Hollow US PGA in May as the 2017 event was held in August. The track was entirely Bermuda grass in 2017 and had lightning-fast greens, but has since switched to a new custom perennial ryegrass blend for the fairways and TifEagle Bermuda for the greens, a move completed prior to the 2024 Wells Fargo. Quail Hollow was laid out by George Cobb in 1961, tweaked by Arnold Palmer in 1986 and redesigned by Tom Fazio in 1997, 2003, 2016 and 2023. Low scores are hard to come by, although Rory McIlroy has had a 61 and a 62 there. The start and the finish of the course are the toughest stretches, with scoring holes from seven through 15. The closing three holes, known as the Green Mile, are particularly difficult.
• The story of last year Xander Schauffele won his first Major title, edging Bryson DeChambeau in a low-scoring Valhalla shootout
• Weather forecast Pre-tournament thunderstorms have softened the track. Sunny, warm and calm for the competition, with gentle breezes
• Type of player suited to the challenge Strong drivers have traditionally thrived at Quail Hollow – a long par-71 demanding solid ball-striking from tee to green
• Key attribute Power

Steve Palmer's US PGA Championship key stat

Twenty three of the last 39 US PGA champions were breaking their Major duck

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