Fowler looks in top gear for impressive leaderboard finish

Rickie Fowler is like a smooth-running Rolls-Royce at the moment, consistently producing the goods with a succession of stylish performances, and there is every reason to believe he will cruise to another leaderboard finish this week.

Fowler has the mental hurdle of making his Major breakthrough to overcome, and spurning several winning chances in regulation events in recent months does not help with that task, but there are few players in the Open field who seem more likely to give themselves a crack at the Claret Jug on Sunday.

Fowler’s Open finishing position can be sold at 29 with Sporting Index, with a maximum make-up of 70 for a missed cut, and that looks a fair deal about an in-form player with a solid Open record. He was fifth in 2011 and tied for second in 2014.

Ten of Fowler’s last 12 tournaments have yielded a top-20 finish, including victory in the Honda Classic, second place in the Memorial, third spot in the Houston Open and Quicken Loans National, fourth in the Phoenix Open and fifth in the US Open.

A tidy warm-up event last week in the Scottish Open, where he shared ninth place, has set Fowler up well for Royal Birkdale.

He loves links golf and will be furious with himself if he fails to record a top-30 finish in this event.

Sporting’s top debutant market is an interesting heat and a buy of Cameron Smith appeals as the best option.

Smith, a strong ball-striker who has significantly improved his work on and around the greens this year, should immediately fall in love with the Open challenge.

He has already proved himself on Major layouts – in 2015 he was fourth in the US Open and 25th in the USPGA – and he has made the cut in all four Majors in which he has competed. The 23-year-old Aussie seems to relish tough conditions and he will get that at Birkdale.

Xander Schauffele has just enjoyed the best month of his career, finishing fifth in the US Open and winning his maiden US Tour title in the Greenbrier Classic, but the 23-year-old may come crashing back down to earth on his Open debut. Sporting make him too strong a favourite in a 72-hole match against David Horsey.

The accurate Horsey, a much more experienced links campaigner who made the cut in the last Open at Birkdale and is from the north-west of England, has been in decent nick on the European Tour. He has also finished ninth and 11th in the last two Dunhill Links Championships.
Another match-bet favourite to oppose is Byeong Hun An, who has a poor Majors record and no links form in the book.

Buzzing New Zealander Ryan Fox – sixth, fourth and fourth in his last three European Tour outings – can outscore the Korean.

Recommendations
Sell R Fowler finishing position
at 29 Sporting Index
Buy C Smith on top debutant index
at 8 Sporting Index
Sell Schauffele/Horsey
at 0.8 Sporting Index
Sell An/Fox
at 0 Sporting Index