Steve Palmer's Masters final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Masters

Sky Sports Golf, 3pm Sunday

Best bets

Patrick Reed to win 7.20pm twoball
3pts 6-5 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Ludvig Aberg to win the Masters
1pt 40-1 Coral, Hills, Ladbrokes

Already advised on April 12

Shane Lowry to win the Masters
2pts each-way 16-1 general

Ludvig Aberg to win the Masters
1pt each-way 33-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Rory McIlroy leads the Masters by two shots heading into the final round at Augusta and the 35-year-old is odds-on to complete a career Grand Slam of Majors at the 11th attempt.

The four-time Major champion, whose last Major success came in the 2014 US PGA, started the week as a 6-1 chance for Masters glory. He is no bigger than 8-15 with 18 holes to play at the Cathedral of Pines.

McIlroy finished Masters runner-up from off the pace in 2022, but his best chances to claim a Green Jacket came in 2011 and 2018. He took a four-shot lead into the final round of the 2011 event, as a 21-year-old, but closed with a miserable round of 80 to finish 15th. The 2018 edition is the only other occasion McIlroy has been in the final pairing on Sunday. He was in second place, trailing Patrick Reed by three shots, then carded a 74 to finish fifth.

Bryson DeChambeau, the man who pipped McIlroy to the US Open title last summer, is alone in second place. DeChambeau, who is seeking a third Major title and a first Masters victory, birdied his final hole of round three and is a best-price 13-5 going into the denouement.

The Masters resumes at 2.40pm UK and Ireland time, with Brian Campbell playing without a professional partner. Hideki Matsuyama and Akshay Bhatia comprise the first twoball at 2.50pm, with McIlroy and DeChambeau boarding the first tee at 7.30pm.

If a playoff is required, it is sudden-death, with the 18th hole used first. The tenth hole and the 18th hole are used in sequence until a victor emerges. The sun sets around 8pm local time (1am UK). A sunny, calm day is forecast, with temperatures peaking at 21C.

The Masters leaderboard

-12 Rory McIlroy
-10 Bryson DeChambeau
-8 Corey Conners
-6 Patrick Reed, Ludvig Aberg
-5 Jason Day, Scottie Scheffler, Shane Lowry, Justin Rose
-4 Zach Johnson, Nico Echavarria, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im

Selected others
-3 Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland
-2 Tyrrell Hatton
-1 Jordan Spieth
Par Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm
+1 Tommy Fleetwood
+3 Patrick Cantlay
+4 Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama

Missed cut
+3 Dustin Johnson, Russell Henley, Bernhard Langer
+4 Sergio Garcia
+5 Brooks Koepka, Sepp Straka, Cameron Smith, Phil Mickelson
+6 Robert MacIntyre

Best odds for the Masters

8-15 R McIlroy, 13-5 B DeChambeau, 18 C Conners, 40 L Aberg, S Scheffler, 80 P Reed, 125 S Lowry, 150 J Day, 200 X Schauffele, 250 J Rose, 500 bar.

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The Masters final-round predictions

The broadcasters bringing this Masters to the world perhaps need to ask themselves some ethical questions going into a monumental Augusta Sunday. Should they have screened Rory McIlroy's reaction to Bryson DeChambeau's 54th-hole birdie?

Did McIlroy even know he was being filmed as he stood alongside Amanda Balionis? Should McIlroy have been asked if he consented to that moment being shown on television? The answer is probably no to the first question and yes to the second.

The clip, where McIlroy is visibly shaken as DeChambeau's long putt drops, provided punters with a glimpse of the enormous pressure the leader is under going into this final round. McIlroy tried to smile through his gritted teeth, but that DeChambeau birdie putt was huge in the context of this Masters.

A three-shot lead, as McIlroy had when walking to the clubhouse, would have been so much more comfortable for him. When DeChambeau found the fairway bunker off the tee at the 18th, McIlroy had every right to think he might be taking a four-shot advantage into Sunday. With a cushion of four or three, McIlroy would feel he could play badly and still get his hands on the Green Jacket he so craves.

A two-shot lead, though, is slender, leaving McIlroy more vulnerable. Golf fans who have grown up following McIlroy on this quest saw that face alongside Balionis and wished the presenter would give him a hug. She just giggled nervously, realising how much of a dagger had just been plunged into the heart of the Masters leader. They both tried to style it out, but that may have been the most significant moment of this Masters thus far.

The enormity of the mental challenge facing McIlroy in the final round is impossible to underplay. He is looking to become the first player since Tiger Woods in 2000 to complete a career Grand Slam of Majors. Woods did it at St Andrews at the age of 24. McIlroy is bidding to do it more than a decade older than Tiger was – and with an 11-year Majors victory drought behind him.

Only one man (Woods) has achieved a Grand Slam in the last 59 years. McIlroy, the greatest player of his generation, is a natural successor. But DeChambeau is probably the worst possible playing partner McIlroy could have for this mission.

Last June, McIlroy led the US Open down the stretch, looking imperious and likely to end his Major-winning drought. A missed par putt from two feet at the 16th, though, was followed by a missed par putt from three feet at the 18th, and DeChambeau got up and down from a greenside bunker on the 18th hole to win by a shot. McIlroy left Pinehurst that week a broken man.

DeChambeau, a cocksure Californian who has become a darling of the American public, is a terrible opponent for McIlroy to face at Augusta in such circumstances. McIlroy has been playing better than DeChambeau this week – the American has relied on some short-game brilliance – but this Masters Sunday may hinge on what is going on between the two players' ears.

Round three could not have started any better for McIlroy, with an historic run of six consecutive threes. However he starts on Sunday is going to feel inferior to that Saturday blitz, which is also psychologically unhelpful.

McIlroy has had the lead (or co-lead) going into the final round 19 times on the PGA Tour, converting 11 of those chances. This includes six leads in Majors, of which he has triumphed in four. It is a strong record, but McIlroy has never led with the chance of completing the career Grand Slam. This is uncharted territory in that respect.

In the 2011 Masters, McIlroy was still ahead by a shot as he made the turn, but a triple-bogey at the tenth was followed by a four-putt double-bogey at the 12th as part of a back-nine 43. Amen Corner seems likely to be the ultimate test of McIlroy's mettle.

Each-way betting has ended on the outright market. Punters who took the Racing Post Sport advice on Saturday morning will be hoping for a top-three finish from Ludvig Aberg or Shane Lowry. From fourth place and sixth place respectively, the Swede and the Irishman are still well in the hunt. In fact, it is difficult to resist offers of 40-1 about Aberg claiming a Green Jacket from here.

Greg Norman, like McIlroy, spent a long time as world number one without ever winning the Masters. Norman infamously led the 1996 Masters by six shots, before Nick Faldo ended up winning by five. That 11-shot Sunday swing shows what is possible when the pressure builds at this iconic venue.

Aberg from six shots behind will know the Jacket is still well within grasp if the leading duo tread water. There seems every chance that McIlroy and DeChambeau get wrapped up in a perceived match – DeChambeau even called it that in his post-round interview on Saturday – leaving others to sneak up on them.

Aberg made a fast finish to round three, covering the final five holes in three under par, to retain a winning chance. From the third-from-last group out, alongside Jason Day, Aberg can be expected to finish with a flourish. He closed with a 69 to finish runner-up on his Masters debut 12 months ago and seems to putt well on the Augusta greens.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Patrick Reed in the penultimate pairing. Reed, the 2018 Masters winner, has the temperament of a champion and experience of teeing off in the final groups at Augusta. Corey Conners, often brittle in contention in standard PGA Tour events and prone to periods of woeful short putting, looks a vulnerable twoball favourite (7.20pm UK).

Perhaps the most eye-catching statistic of all going into this Masters Sunday is that McIlroy had never led after any round at Augusta since round three of 2011, until round three this week.

It has taken 14 years for McIlroy to regain pole position in the Masters. The vast majority of golf fans will be hoping he can zoom clear and finally fulfil his golfing destiny. Hard-nosed punters, reluctantly accepting the size of the mental task for McIlroy, may be looking elsewhere for the value. The human brain is a fragile organ.

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For those looking for even more extensive golf coverage don't miss Palmer's extra pointers every Wednesday in the Racing Post newspaper. 

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