Steve Palmer's World Wide Technology Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 7pm Sunday

Best bets

Collin Morikawa to win 4.15pm twoball
3pts 8-11 general

Patton Kizzire without Russell Henley
2pts each-way 10-1 bet365

Patton Kizzire to win World Wide Technology Championship
1pt 25-1 bet365

Already advised on November 5

Viktor Hovland top-ten finish
2pts 13-10 bet365

Viktor Hovland to win World Wide Technology Championship
1pt 20-1 bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes

Brandon Wu top-ten finish
1pt 4-1 bet365, Hills

Story so far

Russell Henley extended his World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba lead from three shots to six with a Saturday 65 and the Georgia man is no bigger than 2-11 for victory.

Henley, 55-1 ante-post, opened at El Camaleon with back-to-back rounds of 63, then forged further forward as he entered the weekend a 6-5 chance. The three-time PGA Tour champion is winless since April, 2017, but he has gone 54 holes without a bogey this week.

Patton Kizzire and Will Gordon are tied for second place, with defending champion Viktor Hovland lurking in a share of seventh spot. Hovland is nine shots behind Henley but only three shots off second place, so the Norwegian will not have given up hope as he bids for three consecutive Mayakoba triumphs.

The final twoball of Henley and Gordon is scheduled to tee off at 6pm UK and Ireland time. A sunny, warm, calm day is forecast for the denouement.

Leaderboard
-22 Russell Henley
-16 Will Gordon, Patton Kizzire
-15 Seamus Power
-14 Troy Merritt, Brian Harman
-13 Thomas Detry, Viktor Hovland, Matthias Schwab, Greyson Sigg
-12 Joel Dahmen, Brandon Wu, Scott Piercy, Harry Higgs, Martin Laird

Best prices
2-11 R Henley, 16 W Gordon, 25 P Kizzire, 28 S Power, 50 B Harman, V Hovland, 100 bar

Final-round preview

The outright market suggests this tournament is already essentially over, but Russell Henley has grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory too many times in the last few years for a six-shot Sunday lead to guarantee success.

Henley has had three 54-hole leads in the last two years and none have resulted in silverware. He has gone 67 months without winning a tournament - and two events, in particular, stand out as strong examples of the mental fragility of this leader.

In last year's Wyndham Championship, Henley took a three-shot lead into Sunday and looked in total control with eight holes to play, but bogeys at the 11th, 12th, 14th and 18th meant he finished a shot shy of a playoff. His putter turned into a live rattlesnake and he missed from two feet at the 11th and from three feet on the final green.

The gentle Georgian had a great opportunity to bury those demons when he was five shots clear with nine holes to play in the Sony Open in January. A one-over-par back-nine, though, encouraged Hideki Matsuyama, who hunted Henley down and defeated him in a playoff.

Henley has never contended at El Camaleon before - he faded to 56th place after a bright start last year - and there was nothing in his recent form to indicate he would be a title threat this week. His putting, in particular, has been terrible, yet that is the club which has starred for him over the first three days at El Camaleon.

Can Henley's flat-stick continue to salvage pars and protect his advantage? Given he finished 148th in the PGA Tour putting statistics last season - and is 184th in the same stat this season - it is reasonable to expect a drop in dancefloor form under Sunday pressure.

If somebody in the chasing pack can get close to Henley - and perfect weather looks set to make every hole a birdie chance - his recent history of failure could overwhelm him. Any high-rollers lining up the 2-11 Henley with interest could end up with fingers badly burned.

A couple of early mistakes from Henley could quickly change the dynamics of this event - and the 25-1 about Patton Kizzire taking the title seems worth chancing. Kizzire won at El Camaleon in 2017 - his maiden PGA Tour triumph. A 66-67 weekend meant he bravely repelled Rickie Fowler by a shot.

Kizzire, who has never missed a cut at El Camaleon in seven starts, won the Sony Open 2018. He was the dominant force on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2015 before graduating to the main circuit. Recent form has been underwhelming, but he has relished being back at El Camaleon this week and seven Saturday birdies have sent him into Sunday in high spirits.

Kizzire also looks superb value in the 'without Henley' market, with 10-1 available. Tour maiden Will Gordon has the pressure of the final twoball to deal with, while Kizzire and Seamus Power comprise the penultimate group.

Brandon Wu, Viktor Hovland, Thomas Detry and Power can be fancied to finish with a flourish, but likewise Kizzire, who is already ahead of all of them. From a share of the 'without Henley' lead, Kizzire can hold his position.

Pick of the twoballs options is arguably Collin Morikawa, who is on offer at surprisingly generous 8-11 to outscore JJ Spaun. Morikawa spoke in his pre-tournament media conference about how active he is in practice at the moment and how he is finishing the year with real purpose. The two-time Major champion is not happy with how 2022 has gone and is determined to end it on a high. Every round counts for Morikawa at the moment and full focus can be expected for his closing 18 holes at El Camaleon.

Morikawa made his course debut this week, so he is getting to know the track better each day. This test of accuracy suits him well.

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