Steve Palmer's WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
4pts each-way 12-1 Hills
Patrick Cantlay
2pts each-way 20-1 general

Tiger Woods and his troublesome back have exited stage left to the safety of his Florida home, but most of the world's elite are in Memphis for the second WGC of this peculiar year – the FedEx St Jude Invitational at TPC Southwind.

Strength in depth has been a feature of almost all the PGA Tour events post-lockdown, but this one rivals the Memorial for superstar quality, with nine of the top ten in the rankings lining up. The new number one, Jon Rahm, competes carrying that status for the first time and is the 11-1 favourite.

Rahm made his Southwind debut last year and opened with a 62 to go clear before eventually ending up in seventh place. On the form shown when winning the Memorial by three shots last time out – the margin would have been five had he not suffered a post-round two-shot penalty – the Spaniard deserves plenty of respect for Memphis.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 12-1

Rahm was awesome at Muirfield Village and could serve up another masterclass in Memphis, but it seems more likely that achieving a lifelong goal and spending a week reflecting on his elevation to the rankings summit may result in a slight dip in form.

Rahm starts life as world number one at a well established venue which has staged PGA Tour events since 1989. He has only one appearance under his belt there and may play second fiddle to more experienced Southwind competitors over the next four days.

Bryson DeChambeau, who romped to a three-shot Rocket Mortgage Classic victory then followed up by missing the Memorial cut by two shots, showed that this game can bite you on the backside when you think you have it cracked. And Rahm, whose pre-Memorial form was fairly patchy (MC-33-37-27), can be resisted at the price.

In fact, Rahm's reign at the head of the rankings could be a short-lived one because Rory McIlroy will be hungry to regain his status and Southwind is a course which sets up well for the Northern Irishman. McIlroy – 12-1 joint second-favourite with DeChambeau and Justin Thomas – is the preferred option for St Jude success.

Much has been made about an apparently awful post-lockdown period for McIlroy, but it has been overplayed to such an extent that he has become a healthy price for a tournament he threatened to win last season. Southwind came at a tough time for McIlroy last year – immediately after his Open heartache at Portrush – yet he fired a third-round 62 to access the final pairing. A Sunday twoball with Brooks Koepka, who was full of confidence at the time, was the last thing McIlroy needed and he ended up in fourth place.

Solid Southwind form figures of 29-7-4 are not surprising given how important driving is at this layout. McIlroy is a phenomenal driver and that has remained the case despite results of 32-41-11-32 since the PGA Tour resumption.

Colonial and Harbour Town were not good fits for McIlroy – and the 2009 Heritage was his only previous appearance in either – so the slow start post-lockdown could be anticipated. An opening-round 63 in the Travelers hinted at better, but he made some course-management errors to finish 11th, then he got in trouble on the par-fives at Memorial, including an eight at the fifth in round four, having twice found water.

McIlroy actually topped the par-four scoring stats in the Memorial – reassuring given he has 12 to gun at this week – and the forecast for regular Memphis storms provides extra encouragement. There is nobody more dangerous on soft terrain.

With the US PGA looming large, McIlroy knows this is the perfect time to step up a gear, and the four-time Major champ is taken to do so. He completed the WGC-US PGA double in 2014 and a repeat is entirely feasible.

Next best bet

Patrick Cantlay 20-1

It is tempting to put all the eggs in the McIlroy basket, but Patrick Cantlay has such a strong all-round game that the Californian has to go into the staking plan as back-up for a course which traditionally provides a serious examination.

Cantlay faded out of contention over the weekend of the Memorial, but post-lockdown form figures of 11-7-32 are solid, and the world number ten can be expected to sustain a greater challenge at Southwind. His debut there ended in a share of 12th spot last year.

Four members of the world's top ten have already secured a win since the return to action – generally the cream has been rising – and this week could be the turn of McIlroy or Cantlay to get off the mark for an ideal pre-PGA fillip.

Players to note

Justin Thomas
The world number three is winless post-lockdown, having blown a three-shot lead over the closing three holes of the Workday Charity Open. He tied 12th in his only previous Southwind spin.

Xander Schauffele
The Californian has form figures of 3-64-20-14-13 since the PGA Tour resumption. He has finished second four times since his 2019 Tournament of Champions victory. Southwind suits him well.

Daniel Berger
The two-time St Jude Classic champion is massively course-proven and had a streak of five consecutive top-tens, including a victory, prior to missing the cut in the Memorial last time out.

Gary Woodland
The US Open champion should in theory enjoy a tough, ball-strikers' track like this one, but previous Southwind appearances have amounted to nothing.

Collin Morikawa
The Workday Charity Open champion – a class act from tee to green – should enjoy his Southwind debut. He lost a playoff at Colonial last month.

Viktor Hovland
The Norwegian, like Morikawa, is a strong ball-striker making his first appearance at Southwind. Expect him to get stronger as the week wears on.

TPC Southwind course guide

Course TPC Southwind, Memphis, Tennessee
Prize money $10.5 ($1.745m to the winner)
Length 7,277 yards
Par 70
Field 78
Course records- 72 holes 258 John Cook (1996) 18 holes 61 Jay Delsing (1993), Bob Estes (2001)

Course winners taking part Dustin Johnson (twice), Daniel Berger (twice), Brooks Koepka

When to bet By 5pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm on Thursday

Time difference Tennessee is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - 3M Open 1 M Thompson (125-1), 2 A Long (125-1), T3 R Shelton (400-1), C Howell (100-1), E Grillo (110-1), A Noren (90-1), T Finau (14-1), M Homa (70-1), C Tringale (160-1), R Werenski (90-1), C Schwartzel (175-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The Ron Prichard-designed TPC Southwind hosted the St Jude Classic from 1989 to 2018, then the WGC-St Jude Invitational was created last year, with almost $4m added to the prize pot. The track had an extensive overhaul after the 2004 Classic, overseen by Loren Roberts. All the greens were reconstructed, with bermuda grass replacing bentgrass, while fairways were narrowed and new tees added to increase the yardage. The three ponds at the course were enlarged, 125 trees were planted, 15 bunkers were added and the toughened-up layout has perennially ranked as one of the most difficult on the PGA Tour ever since. The 485-yard par-four fifth is a devil of a hole, usually averaging well over par. The par-three 11th draws comparisons with Sawgrass's 17th, requiring a flick of the wrists with a short iron to a small island green. The two par-fives (third and 16th) are relatively straightforward and provide relief during a challenging assignment. The second and 15th also represent great birdie opportunities

Story of last year Brooks Koepka outplayed Rory McIlroy in a Sunday twoball – Koepka eventually winning by three shots with Webb Simpson taking the runner-up spot

Weather forecast There is a thunderstorm threat for the first three days, before a cloudy Sunday. Hot and sticky throughout, with light to moderate breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge TPC Southwind has traditionally been the domain of dead-eye drivers and precision operators. Since the course changes, Justin Leonard (twice), Jeff Maggert, Woody Austin, Brian Gay, Ben Crane and Fabian Gomez, all accurate short-hitters, have won this event, and even prior to the modifications the likes of David Toms and Bob Estes thrived at Southwind. It is a tight, fiddly, dangerous venue where straight hitting is essential. Aggressive players have triumphed, and storms this week should aid their cause, but generally this is a layout where accuracy is essential

Key attribute Accuracy

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