WGC-Mexico Championship: Steve Palmer's best bets, free golf tips & course guide

Golf tips, best bets, player analysis and free tips for the WGC-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy
4pts each-way 13-2 bet365
Back this tip with bet365
Justin Thomas
3pts each-way 11-1 BoyleSports
Back this tip with Paddy Power

Preview

World Golf Championship events no longer attract all of the sport's elite players and Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Cantlay and Henrik Stenson have all elected to skip the Mexico Championship despite a prize fund of more than $10 million.

With so much quality missing, the event has become a golden opportunity for those who have made the trip to Club de Golf Chapultepec, and dual Mexico champion Dustin Johnson is a popular selection.

There have been only three editions of the Mexico Championship and Johnson has won two of them, but the former world number one has suffered two poor finishes in the last fortnight which may have dented his confidence. A closing 78 at Pebble Beach was followed by a birdie-free two-over-par back nine at Riviera to blow his title chance on Sunday.

Johnson is competing for the fourth week in a row – a busy spell which started with a trek to Saudi Arabia – so he may suffer a mental dip at some stage in Mexico. Fresher players are preferred.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rory McIlroy 13-2

Critics have been quick to criticise Rory McIlroy after he dropped from a share of first place to a tie for fifth in the Genesis Invitational on Sunday, but the world number one could take plenty of positives from Riviera Country Club and looks a rock-solid each-way investment for the Mexico Championship.

The Genesis was McIlroy's fifth consecutive top-five finish and his 14th since the start of last year – the four-times Major champion is becoming an almost permanent fixture on leaderboards whenever he tees up these days.

His swing was in mint condition at Riviera and statistically he gained almost nine strokes on the field from tee to green. It was just one bad hole which destroyed his card – for the other 71 holes he oozed control and looked ultra-comfortable with every department of his game.

The fifth hole on Sunday cost McIlroy dear. He missed the green left in a horrible spot and failed to carry his chip far enough before it essentially rolled back to his feet, then played understandably safe with the next to go 20 feet past the flag. Three putts followed and a triple-bogey, but he was one under par for the other 17 holes on a day when the vast majority of the field struggled badly.

McIlroy took defeat well and seems a more measured character than ever at the age of 30, fully aware that he has an immediate opportunity to bounce back in Mexico at a course he knows he can rip apart.

Two starts in the Mexico Championship have yielded seventh place and second place for the pride of Northern Ireland – only an inspired Dustin Johnson beat him at Chapultepec last year – and two playoff appearances in the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre underline how comfortable McIlroy is competing at altitude.

The Mexico favourite can boast current form figures of 3-1-4-3-5 – he won the last WGC in the China – and each-way punters have been presented with a wonderful option. Seven places are available with some firms and he has only 72 runners to beat.

Next best bet

Justin Thomas 11-1

The cream looks set to rise to the top this week, with the small field containing plenty of makeweights. World number 510 Tae-Hee Lee is in the line-up, highlighting the odd qualification criteria for this event. The superstars in attendance do not have as much to beat as usual and punters are advised to take advantage of the mouthwatering each-way terms.

Justin Thomas let down his backers at Riviera last week, getting off to a horror start with a double-bogey at the second hole. He struggled for rhythm throughout the first round, getting embarrassed playing alongside his hero Tiger Woods, and a 74 left him tailed off. JT's putter was cold throughout and by the time he got going – playing his final four holes in two under par – it was too late to avoid a missed cut.

Expect that Riviera flop to be rapidly avenged after five days of practice. Thomas has been producing generally excellent golf for seven months, winning three times and posting eight top tens, and he loves Chapultepec. He is the two-time course-record holder, having twice carded a round of 62 there, and his Mexico Championship form figures are 5-2-9. A thrilling McIlroy versus Thomas duel on Sunday could be in the offing.

Players to note

Tommy Fleetwood
The Englishman was runner-up to Johnson in the inaugural Mexico Championship and can be fancied to threaten the places again. European Tour form figures of 1-2-2-11 have sent him across the pond in high spirits.

Hideki Matsuyama
The Japanese ace was awesome from tee to green at Riviera last week, but typically frustrating on the dancefloors, ending up in a share of fifth place. The two-time WGC champion can be expected to feature on the leaderboard again.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard enjoys visiting Mexico and finished third in the 2017 WGC, but his iron play was abysmal at Riviera last week, and his chipping was even worse. A red-hot putter kept his Genesis score respectable, but long-game confidence seems to have taken a hit.

Adam Scott
The Riviera champion is back to his ball-striking best, winning the Australian PGA and the Genesis, but putting remains a weakness and he may not hole enough to be a factor at Chapultepec in welcoming weather.

Chapultepec course guide

Course Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City, Mexico
Prize money $10.5m ($1.745m to the winner)
Length 7,355 yards
Par 71
Field 73
Course records- 72 holes 263 Dustin Johnson (2019) 18 holes 62 Justin Thomas (2018, 2019)

Course winner taking part Dustin Johnson (twice)

When to bet By 5pm Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 5pm Thursday

Time difference Mexico is six hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Genesis Invitational 1 A Scott (30-1), T2 S Kang (250-1), S Brown (400-1), M Kuchar (60-1), T5 H Matsuyama (28-1), B DeChambeau (50-1), M Homa (90-1), J Dahmen (250-1), R McIlroy (15-2)

Course overview Club de Golf Chapultepec took over this WGC for the first time in 2017. The Smith brothers, Willie and Alex, designed the course and it was constructed in 1928. Percy Clifford redesigned the tree-lined track in 1972 and it was further upgraded for the WGC. The Mexican Open has been staged on this track 18 times. The layout opens with a driveable, 319-yard, downhill par-four hole, then the 368-yard, par-four second hole is another good birdie chance. There are two par fours of 513 and 517 yards, two par threes of 238 and 221 yards, and two par fives of 605 and 632 yards, but the winning score last year was 21 under par and the elite have feasted on birdies. It is uphill all the way from the 15th tee to the 18th green, although the venue being at altitude means the ball flies further. The poa annua greens are small and undulating

Story of last year Dustin Johnson cruised to a five-shot victory, claiming his 20th PGA Tour title, comfortably repelling Rory McIlroy

Weather forecast Sunny, calm skies throughout the tournament

Type of player suited to the challenge The three editions of this event have resulted in Dustin Johnson edging Tommy Fleetwood, Phil Mickelson winning a playoff against Justin Thomas, and Johnson leaving Rory McIlroy as runner-up, so powerful, attacking players have succeeded, despite the tight, tree-lined terrain. Driving accuracy does not seem important – aggressive golf and a hot putter appears the winning ticket, especially in the forecast calm conditions

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