Steve Palmer's Texas Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Best bet

Charley Hoffman to win threeball
1pt 15-8 Hills

Story so far

Jordan Spieth has reclaimed a share of the lead going into the final round of the Texas Open and the pre-tournament 12-1 favourite is a general even-money chance for victory.

Spieth, the 2015 Masters champion, will be all the rage for next week's Augusta showpiece if he gets back to winning ways at TPC San Antonio. The former world number one is available at 12-1 for the Masters - an event in which he has twice finished runner-up in addition to his triumph - but he is winless since the 2017 Open Championship.

A late burst of scoring allowed Spieth to move past clubhouse leader Charley Hoffman on Saturday. Spieth covered his final seven holes in five under par to move to 12 under for the event. His playing partner Matt Wallace, 100-1 ante-post, also finished with a gallop - four under par for the closing seven - and the pair are tied at the top.

Hoffman, who started the week with a 75 to slip outside the projected cut-line, has roared back into contention with some impressive ball-striking on his favourite course. The 2016 Texas Open champion followed a Friday 66 with a Saturday 65, lying alone in third spot, two shots behind.

Leaderboard
-12 Matt Wallace, Jordan Spieth
-10 Charley Hoffman
-8 Cameron Tringale
-7 Anirban Lahiri
-6 Tom Hoge, Gary Woodland, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar

Best prices
21-20 J Spieth, 9-4 M Wallace, 5 C Hoffman, 16 C Tringale, 50 M Kuchar, A Lahiri, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Without wishing to offend Jordan Spieth's army of fans, this analysis starts with the story of Charley Hoffman, a 33-1 Racing Post Sport ante-post recommendation. The selection was five over par through 15 holes, making a mockery of his magnificent TPC San Antonio record, but he eventually clicked into gear and 39 holes later has improved his score by 15 shots.

Hoffman has not even putted well to get into third place - he lies 48th in the putts-per-GIR rankings for the first three days - but his driving has been exceptional and he has been firing at flags. He was six under par for his final seven holes of round three and has the scent of azaleas in his nostrils.

Hoffman is yet to qualify for the Masters - a tournament in which he has become known for fast starts - but victory at TPC San Antonio would earn him a trip to Augusta. If he can marry a slightly warmer putter to his clearly purring long-game in round four in Texas, The Hoff could be coming to the Masters party after all.

The late spurts of Hoffman, Spieth and Matt Wallace over the closing holes of round three have made the Texas Open look like a three-runner race. Cameron Tringale has been held back by an apparent lack of self-belief in the past - and despite a jaunty start to round three and some enthusiastic holed-putt celebrations, the Tour maiden wilted on the way to the hut.

Spieth is on a victory drought of almost four years, while Wallace has never won a PGA Tour title and is winless anywhere since September, 2018. Four-time Tour champion Hoffman has not lifted a trophy since his gutsy one-shot Texas Open triumph over Patrick Reed five years ago.

At the odds, Hoffman arguably remains the value. His driving has been much tighter than the other two - the driving-accuracy statistics of Spieth and Wallace are poor - and that tee-ball security could prove decisive as the tension rises on Sunday.

Spieth conjured a couple of amazing flop-shots on Saturday - his magic hands kept his score ticking over nicely - but the short prices against his name for Sunday make no appeal when you consider that his driver could bust his card at any moment. TPC San Antonio is full of trouble off the fairway.

The two-shot deficit means Hoffman has to be third in the betting, but 5-1 quotes seem to underestimate his title chance.

Hoffman also seems good value for his threeball - his leaderboard position obliges a more positive approach than playing partners Spieth and Wallace - and they are scheduled to tee off at 6.02pm UK and Ireland time. A cloudy day with light breezes - temperatures in the low-20s - is forecast.

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