Steve Palmer's Sentry Tournament of Champions final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5.45pm Sunday

Best bets

Tom Kim without Collin Morikawa
2pts each-way 8-1 BoyleSports

Sungjae Im without Collin Morikawa
1pt each-way 14-1 bet365, Betfair, BoyleSports, Power

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Story so far

Collin Morikawa is no bigger than 1-6 for the Sentry Tournament of Champions after kicking clear of the field in round three. The two-time Major champion is six shots ahead with 18 holes to play.

Morikawa, available at 20-1 ante-post after a winless 2022, has covered the first 54 holes without dropping a shot, moving to 24 under par with rounds of 64, 66 and 65.

The dominance has stemmed largely from a massive upturn in fortunes on the greens. Morikawa came into the Sentry ranked 222nd in the PGA Tour putting stats, but this week he has been rolling his rock with assurance, and he was sensational on Saturday.

Morikawa last won on the PGA Tour in the 2021 Open Championship. He won the DP World Tour Championship on the DP World Tour four months after lifting the Claret Jug.

Scottie Scheffler, who can reclaim top spot in the world rankings if he finishes in a two-way tie for third place or better this week, is tied for second place at the Plantation Course going into the final round.

Leaderboard
-24 Collin Morikawa
-18 Matt Fitzpatrick, JJ Spaun, Scottie Scheffler
-17 Jon Rahm, Tom Kim
-16 Max Homa, Sungjae Im
-15 Hideki Matsuyama, K.H Lee, Brian Harman, Jordan Spieth

Best prices
1-6 C Morikawa, 14 S Scheffler, 20 M Fitzpatrick, 28 J Rahm, 50 JJ Spaun, 55 T Kim, 125 S Im, 150 M Homa, 275 J Spieth, 500 bar

Final-round preview

There will be much chatter about the 2021 Hero World Challenge before the final round of the Sentry Tournament of Champions, but the man that matters most will probably not be listening.

Collin Morikawa took a five-shot lead into the 2021 Hero and ended up losing by four shots. A third-round 64 was followed by a final-round 76. The Sentry pacesetter has blown a significant lead in the not-too-distant past - and has not won since.

There are two key differences between then and now, though, which mean history is unlikely to repeat itself. It is important to note that Morikawa was on the brink of becoming world number one for the first time if he won that 2021 Hero. Other players have faltered when close to the rankings summit - and Morikawa imploded - but this week there are no such distractions.

The other difference is how much confidence Morikawa is carrying on the greens. He recruited a new putting coach in November - the first time he has had one - and the results have been spectacular. Putting with a conventional grip, Morikawa has never given the chasing pack any encouragement, dropping a series of clutch par putts.

Stephen Sweeney, the coach who has transformed Morikawa's putting, should be getting a large slice of the $2.7m cheque which cocksure Collin seems set to capture. While former dancefloor glory boy Jordan Spieth has been missing tiddlers all week, Morikawa looks like a new man on the greens, and he admits he has started to feel "excitement" with putter in hand.

Bookmakers are sleeping with their US Open prices - punters happy to tie up funds until June should be sniffing around the juicy quotes about Morikawa for that - but the Sentry outright market appears a dead duck. There is no urge to chance any of the pursuers with Morikawa looking so good. Even his often suspect chipping has been solid this week.

Scheffler looks set for another near-miss. He has finished second three times since slipping on the Green Jacket, including in the Hero World Challenge a month ago. The betting without Morikawa market will be popular and Scheffler is favourite.

The forecast for a sunny, warm day, with less breeze than there has been, makes Scheffler an unattractive option. More sloppy putting would see him flop in the without Morikawa market.

Matt Fitzpatrick has made a great Kapalua debut, but his putter has cooled in the last couple of days and he has to deal with the spotlight of the final twoball alongside Morikawa.

Jon Rahm has been loose with his approaches this week, so the best tactic for Sunday may be to approach it carrying a Korean flag. Tom Kim and Sungjae Im can finish with a flourish to chase home Morikawa.

Despite carrying an ice-cold putter over the first two days, Kim stayed in contention due to brilliant approach-play, and the 20-year-old starlet finally got some putts to drop in round three. Getting more settled on his Sentry debut each day, Kim seems as likely as anyone to fire the round in the low 60s which should be available if the weather forecast is correct.

Kim has such a strong temperament that he is inspired, rather than intimidated, by high-class playing partners. He will be looking to show off in front of Rahm in the final round. Kim, who spent Christmas Day at Jordan Spieth's house, has quickly become ultra-comfortable in elite company.

Im was five under par for his final seven holes of round three - the Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation raising hopes of a place return. And, like his compatriot Kim, two days of frustration on the greens was followed by a decent putting round. If Kim and Im make it a weekend of sizzling on the dancefloors, then they can both bank healthy cheques.

The twoballs card is unappealing, so concentrating on the without Morikawa market with Kim and Im is the preferred course of action. The tournament resumes at 5.30pm UK and Ireland time, with the final pairing of Morikawa and Fitzpatrick teeing off at 8.40pm.