Steve Palmer's Portugal Masters final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bets

Thomas Pieters to win the Portugal Masters
4pts 8-11 general

Story so far

Thomas Pieters rolled in a long birdie putt from the edge of the 18th green to reach 16 under par and take a share of the lead into the final round of the Portugal Masters at the Dom Pedro Victoria, Vilamoura.

The Belgian made an eagle and eight birdies as he moved to the top of the leaderboard. Despite missing a tiny putt at the third hole and carding a double-bogey seven after a wild second shot at the fifth, Pieters produced enough brilliance to take charge. The ante-post 25-1 chance is odds-on across the board with 18 holes to play.

Matthieu Pavon is tied at the top. The Frenchman, a European Tour maiden, made an ugly six at the 17th hole before bouncing back with a closing birdie. There is a four-shot gap to Lucas Bjerregaard, who is alone in third place.

English duo Matt Wallace and Laurie Canter were first and second favourite in the pre-tournament betting, but both missed the cut.

Leaderboard
-16 Thomas Pieters, Matthieu Pavon
-12 Lucas Bjerregaard
-11 Kristoffer Broberg
-10 Nicolai Hojgaard, Sam Horsfield

Best prices
8-11 T Pieters, 13-8 M Pavon, 14 L Bjerregaard, 28 S Horsfield, K Broberg, 33 N Hojgaard, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Thomas Pieters has made two eagles and 19 birdies in his opening 54 holes at the Dom Pedro, and further gains can be expected in the Vilamoura sunshine on Sunday.

The best weather of the day - the highest temperatures and virtually windless skies - are forecast for when the leaders are out in round four. Pieters seems likely to cruise past 20 under par, meaning those in third place and worse appear set to require something in the low-60s to stay competitive.

Lucas Bjerregaard showed with an X-rated second shot at the 17th in round three that his technique remains fragile in the wake of swing changes and a plummet down the world rankings. The Dane rode his luck early in the tournament, but got punished down the stretch on Saturday.

The likes of Adri Arnaus, Sam Horsfield and Nicolai Hojgaard probably have finishing flourishes in them, but all have given Pieters such a start for Sunday that catching the former Ryder Cup star could quickly become a forlorn hope.

Pieters may feel that if he can outscore Matthieu Pavon in round four, a fifth European Tour title will be his. And the general 8-11 is an appealing price about that scenario.

Pavon rolled plenty of putts in from distance on Saturday, but missed two extremely short ones, and his course-management decisions on the par-five 17th hole did not bode well for his hopes of holding himself together on Sunday. He laid up with his second shot, despite having only 220 yards to the front of the green. A three-putt bogey followed, but it was the lack of self-belief on approach which will have most concerned supporters of the 29-year-old, who has never won at a higher level than the Alps Tour.

Pieters, in contrast, has been peppering flagsticks with confidence. He finished 16th in the Mallorca Open last time out, despite a poor set of tee-times over the first two rounds, and his swing looks in terrific shape. The fact he is also fifth for strokes-gained putting through 54 holes will thrill him and his fans.