Steve Palmer's Players Championship preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.40am Thursday

Best bets

Dustin Johnson
3.5pts each-way 28-1 Hills
Back this tip with Paddy Power
Xander Schauffele
2.5pts each-way 30-1 Betfred
Back this tip with Coral
Gary Woodland
1.5pts each-way 50-1Betfred, Coral
Back this tip with Coral

The schedule switch from May to March for the Players Championship has changed the dynamics of the tournament and Sawgrass is not so firm and fiery, but the competitors still need to exude courage to emerge triumphant.

The PGA Tour, possibly reacting to the European Tour pumping up prize money for their Final Series, have boosted the winning cheque for the Players to a whopping $2.7m. That juicy carrot, along with the most dangerous closing holes in golf and a fervent Florida crowd, mean only the most mentally secure of players can hope to lift the trophy on Sunday.

Tiger Woods and his sore back are absent, but the rest of the world's top 25 are lining up, meaning many bookmakers have happily chalked up world number one Rory McIlroy at 7-1. The four-time Major victor and Sawgrass defending champion is on a run of seven top-five finishes in a row, but he is yet to win this year and carded a 76 at Bay Hill on Sunday.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Dustin Johnson 28-1

McIlroy was not the only player who appreciated the lusher conditions of a March Sawgrass. Dustin Johnson carded four rounds in the 60s for fifth place last year, and the former world number one can kickstart his season by becoming Players champion for the first time.

Johnson took plenty of time to find a way of conquering Sawgrass, a track where his attacking instincts have to be kept in check, but form figures of 28-12-17 in the final three May Players show that he was getting a grip. Then last year, with the course playing much longer and driver becoming a club more regularly used by everyone, he was in his element.

Suddenly Sawgrass is a layout Johnson can approach with confidence and the enormous prices against his name are well worth serious consideration. For his last start, he went off 7-1 for a WGC – a Mexico Championship featuring McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas and most of the elite – yet this week he can be backed at 28-1. His Mexico course credentials accounted for much of that skinny WGC price – he is a two-time champ there – but the immense leap in the betting for Sawgrass is difficult to justify.

It was only in round one of the Mexico Championship that Johnson was awful – and that sluggish start was probably down to a hectic schedule. He was competing for a fourth consecutive week, having started that run with a trek to Saudi Arabia, and that was a big ask for a man who spent most of autumn recovering from knee surgery.

DJ followed the Thursday 76 in Mexico with rounds of 71, 67 and 70 to restore some respectability and finish 48th of the 72 runners, and punters should judge him on previous efforts when he was fresher. His first outing after surgery was the Presidents Cup and he finished it strongly, combining with Gary Woodland to beat Adam Scott and Louis Oosthuizen in the final foursomes, then thrashing Haotong Li 4&3 in the singles.

Seventh spot in the Sentry Tournament of Champions was followed by a runner-up finish in the Saudi International, 32nd place at Pebble Beach, then a title tilt at Riviera. Johnson suffered a poor back-nine to drop from second place to tenth in the Genesis Invitational, but the 20-time PGA Tour champion seems to be slowly getting his act together in time for a profitable summer.

Skipping the Honda Classic and the Arnold Palmer Invitational has allowed the Florida-based 35-year-old to recharge his batteries and work on his equipment. Johnson has been tinkering a lot in the early weeks of the year, trying new clubs and regularly switching putters, but a fortnight of testing means he should have a more settled golf bag going into the heart of the season.

Next best bet

Xander Schauffele 30-1

The Players Championship is the most prestigious non-Major and Xander Schauffele is a man for big occasions like this one. The cool Californian has posted five top-six finishes in 11 Major starts and on his Players debut in 2018 he finished second. He relishes difficult assignments like this one and is gritty enough to threaten the trophy again.

Schauffele missed the Players cut by a shot last year – back-to-back double-bogeys during half-hour of madness at the fourth and fifth holes in round two destroyed his scorecard – but he was generally solid along the rest of the course.

Given how close he has come to victory in top-class company over the last 12 months – second in the Masters, third in the US Open, second in the Tour Championship, second in the WGC-HSBC Champions, second in the Sentry – it is reasonable to think Sawgrass could be the venue where he finally gets reward. His iron-play was exceptional in Mexico and his putting was superb at Bay Hill – this could be the week when he puts it all together.

Other selection

Gary Woodland 50-1

Complete a three-pronged attack for the 144-runner event with the US Open champion, Gary Woodland. His Pebble Beach glory means elite events such as the Players hold no fears for him any more and a March Sawgrass sets up wonderfully for the Florida-based powerhouse.

Woodland is one of the best drivers in the world, laying the foundation for success this week, and he appears to have found his A-game in time to threaten the Sawgrass silverware. The 35-year-old finished 12th in Mexico on a course he does not particularly like, then eighth in the Honda Classic last time out, closing with a 67 bettered by only four players in the field.

Players to note

Hideki Matsuyama
The ball-striking colossus is well equipped to handle Sawgrass and excellent weekend rounds of 66 and 67 earned him eighth spot last year. His 2020 has been solid and the Japanese ace was becoming a tempting Players option, but closing rounds of 80 and 77 at Bay Hill were off-putting.

Justin Thomas
The Florida-based superstar loves the challenge of Sawgrass and finished third there in 2016, but recent outings may have dented his confidence. A shock missed cut at Riviera was followed by a final-round flop from the front in Mexico.

Jon Rahm
The Spaniard loved the May to March switch – having been tailed off in previous visits, he had a great winning chance last year until taking on a crazy shot from a fairway bunker at the par-five 11th in the final round, which found water. Can he be trusted on this danger-laden back-nine?

Sungjae Im
The Korean almost won at Bay Hill on Sunday – one horror wedge into water at the 13th cost him the tournament – and the Honda Classic champion deserves respect. This is his fifth tournament in a row though – and the last two were on tough, windswept tracks – so fatigue could be an issue.

Henrik Stenson
The Florida-based Swede returned from a month off and a rusty first-round 77 meant a missed cut at Bay Hill, but the 2009 Players champion may bounce back at Sawgrass.

Billy Horschel
The Floridian is a regular at Sawgrass for practice and will not want for course knowledge this week. He has a month of solid golf under his belt and can threaten the places.

Sawgrass course guide

Course Stadium Course, TPC Sawgrass, Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida
Prize money $15m ($2.7m to the winner)
Length 7,189 yards
Par 72
Field 144
Course records- 72 holes 264 Greg Norman (2004) 18 holes 63 Fred Couples (1992), Greg Norman (1994), Martin Kaymer (2014), Jason Day (2016), Colt Knost (2016), Webb Simpson (2018), Brooks Koepka (2018)

Course winners taking part Adam Scott, Phil Mickelson, Sergio Garcia, Henrik Stenson, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, Jason Day, Si Woo Kim, Webb Simpson, Rory McIlroy

When to bet By 11.40am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.40am Thursday

Time difference Florida is four hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Arnold Palmer Invitational 1 T Hatton (50-1), 2 M Leishman (40-1), 3 S Im (25-1), 4 B DeChambeau (18-1), T5 K Mitchell (175-1), J Dahmen (140-1), D Lee (200-1), R McIlroy (11-2)

Course overview The famous Pete Dye design, which has hosted this tournament since 1982, can be a brutal test. The Championship has become known as the 'Fifth Major' due to the quality of the field – all the elite usually tee up – and Tiger Woods is the only member of the world's top 25 missing this week. Dangerous holes, one of the most talked about in golf being the island-green 17th, can see competitors card some big numbers and the event always makes for a fascinating spectacle. There is a bearpit atmosphere created by large galleries, many of whom gather at the 17th hole. The par-fives – the second, ninth, 11th and 16th – offer relief during a demanding round. The track has a state-of-the-art drainage system, so officials can attempt to get the track firm and fast, but the switch last year from a May date in the calendar to a March one had a dramatic effect on course conditions. It is much lusher in March so the ball does not roll to the same extent, and it does not fly as far in the colder air. Longer clubs are required on approach than before, but the small, contoured greens are more receptive. In 2017, the 12th hole was redesigned to become a driveable par four of 302 yards

Story of last year Rory McIlroy fended off a spirited challenge from local resident Jim Furyk to win by a shot, finishing on 16 under par

Weather forecast Clear and pleasant, with light to moderate breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Precise plodders traditionally dominated at this venue when the event was staged in May, but the switch to March and the lusher terrain has effectively lengthened the track and played into the hands of big-hitters. With four par-fives at which to gun, another powerful, as well as accurate, ball-striker can follow Rory McIlroy into the winner's enclosure

Key attribute Accuracy

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