Steve Palmer's Mexico Open first-round preview, best bets & free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf red button, 1.45pm Thursday

Best bets

Davis Riley first-round leader
1pt each-way 66-1 Coral, Ladbrokes

Cameron Champ first-round leader
1pt each-way 50-1 general

Aaron Wise first-round leader
1pt each-way 40-1 general

Carlos Ortiz top Rest of World
1pt each-way 10-1 general

Scott Piercy to win 8.20pm threeball
1pt 15-8 BoyleSports

First-round preview

The weather forecast for the opening day of the Mexico Open makes the first-round-leader market a hugely appealing option on the PGA Tour this week - and a three-pronged attack is recommended.

All four days at Vidanta Vallarta are set to be the same - calm mornings replaced by breezy afternoons - so first-round-leader punters should be concentrating on the early starters. With the morning wave probably out in totally benign conditions, with fresh greens and temperatures of 25 Celsius, it would be a surprise if the best Thursday score was not set quickly.

Tournament favourite Jon Rahm is out at 8.18am local time, so the world number two will do for plenty at 14-1 for first-round leader, but better value alternatives are Davis Riley (66-1), Cameron Champ (50-1) and Aaron Wise (40-1).

Riley, who was fourth alongside Will Zalatoris in the Zurich Classic pairs event on Sunday, is off in the first group out at 7.45am local time. This rising star of the circuit can make merry, while three-time PGA Tour champion Champ is also worth following. The powerhouse, back to full fitness after a wrist problem, is alongside Rahm in the marquee morning threeball.

Wise, who has a great record in Mexico over the last four years, tees off at 8.40am. The 2018 PGA Tour Rookie of the Year is another player who could post a competitive early clubhouse mark.

Rahm looks a better bet at 5-6 for top European than he does at 9-2 in the outright betting - Aaron Rai and Russell Knox could find this long course a slog - but perhaps Carlos Ortiz for top Rest of the World is a more attractive investment.

Ortiz is Vidanta Golf's ambassador and knows this week's venue better than anyone else in the field. He has been struggling to make an impact in far superior events to this one lately, but course-comfort can make him best of the Rest. Abraham Ancer is favourite for this section, but he has been labouring with a back issue in recent weeks and may not be as sharp as his compatriot.

Scott Piercy, who has an excellent record at El Camaleon in the annual Tour stop in Mexico, finished 12th in the Heritage last time out and can defeat powder-puff drivers Andrew Putnam and Kramer Hickok in the 8.02pm threeball.

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