Steve Palmer's Memorial Tournament final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Best bets

Ryan Palmer without Jon Rahm
1pt 9-2 Betway

Henrik Norlander to win twoball
1pt 9-5 Betfair

Patrick Reed to win twoball
1pt 9-5 Betfair

Story so far

Jon Rahm has produced some magnificent golf over the first three days of the Memorial Tournament to reach 12 under par through 54 holes – the Spaniard defying tough conditions – and he stands on the brink of becoming world number one.

The heavy rough of Muirfield Village, allied to fast greens and unsettled weather, has served up a severe examination for the PGA Tour's finest. Many have failed miserably, with Dustin Johnson (16 over par) and Bryson DeChambeau (five over) among those who capitulated over the first two rounds. Rahm, though, has steadfastly refused to buckle.

A final-round 64 in the Workday Charity Open last Sunday suggested that Rahm had rediscovered his A-game – and punters who took the hint with a 22-1 plunge for the same venue have been rewarded with Memorial rounds of 69, 67 and 68, and a four-shot lead. Another round in the 60s and the title is surely his, with a hot, windy day in store for Dublin, Ohio.

Victory would take Rahm atop the world rankings for the first time unless Rory McIlroy finishes joint-second or better. Even second place will be enough for Rahm to take over as top dog if McIlroy slips from his current share of 12th spot to outside the top 30.

Leaderboard
-12 Jon Rahm
-8 Ryan Palmer, Tony Finau
-6 Danny Willett
-5 Henrik Norlander, Jason Day
-4 Matt Wallace, Chez Reavie
-3 Patrick Rodgers, Patrick Cantlay, Mackenzie Hughes
-2 Scottie Scheffler, Brendan Steele, Kevin Na, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Gary Woodland

Best prices
1-4 J Rahm, 8 T Finau, 14 R Palmer, 28 D Willett, 40 J Day, 100 P Cantlay, 125 H Norlander, M Wallace, 150 C Reavie, 200 R McIlroy, 300 bar

Final-round preview

It is no wonder that Jon Rahm is a best-price 1-4 to become Memorial champion – while others were losing their heads over the closing holes of round three, he continued to strike his ball with great authority and retain maximum composure to the clubhouse.

Patrick Cantlay, for example, squandered four shots over the final five holes. Jason Day closed with back-to-back bogeys. Tony Finau carded two back-nine double-bogeys. It was a scene of carnage which Rahm sailed serenely through, covering the final six holes in four under par.

On the previous occasions when Rahm has been within striking distance of becoming world number one, that extra desire has had a negative effect, and he has always fallen short. This time, though, expect him to have learned from those previous near-misses and not let the added carrot disrupt his title tilt.

In these strange new times, the extra layer of motivation may even be a significant positive for Rahm. Many of the elite have mentioned how the lack of spectators at tournaments mean they can feel a “flat” on the course, getting no feedback from galleries for their good shots and birdies. Rahm, looking to win Jack Nicklaus's event for the first time and take top-dog status in the process, has all the ingredients needed for intense concentration.

Rahm's cause is helped by the leaders of the chasing pack – Ryan Palmer and Tony Finau – being notoriously brittle in contention. And being in a comfortable final-round twoball with Palmer, with whom he won the Zurich Classic pairs event last year, is another bonus.

Rahm has failed to win the two previous PGA Tour events in which he led going into the final round – at Sawgrass, 2019, and Torrey Pines, 2020 – but this seems a gilt-edged chance to dominate from the front. He turned a five-shot Spanish Open lead last year into a five-shot victory, and something similar could develop in Ohio if the course remains fair.

Muirfield Village is drying out, wind is forecast and challenging pin positions are expected, so this will probably be a savage US Open-style Sunday. Rahm has more nuggets to protect and if he plays conservatively to the middle of greens, the glory should be his.
Palmer typically plays well in a breeze – the Texan has grown up in the wind and has an ideal ball-flight for it – so the Rahm-Palmer dual forecast appeals.

With Jason Day's back in a fragile state again, the accurate Henrik Norlander is worth chancing in the 7.15pm twoball, while Patrick Reed is another value outsider against Justin Thomas. Reed is another Texan who relishes a breeze, while the wheels fell off Thomas in round three with a back-nine 40. His caddie Jimmy Johnson fell ill and departed on the 13th tee, so Thomas, who had a gruelling week as playoff loser in the Workday Charity Open last week, looks set to end the Memorial with a whimper.

Rahm and Palmer are scheduled on the tee at 7.35pm UK and Ireland time. Punters should go nowhere near Sky Bet's 'Round without a bogey' market. There probably won't be any.

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