Steve Palmer's Mayakoba Classic final-round preview, free golf betting tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf red button, 6pm Sunday

Best bet

Viktor Hovland to win Mayakoba Classic
3pts 3-1 general

Story so far

The lead of Emiliano Grillo diminished from four shots to just one in the third round of the Mayakoba Classic, but the Argentinian kept his nose in front going into Sunday at El Camaleon, Mexico.

Grillo, 66-1 at the outset and 9-4 after forging that commanding halfway advantage, has remained a 9-4 chance going into the final 18 holes. A wobble just after the turn threatened to see Grillo relinquish his lead on Saturday, but he covered the final six holes in two under par to steady his ship.

Grillo, winless since the 2015 Frys.com Open, is one shot ahead of Tom Hoge, with Norwegian youngster Viktor Hovland alone in third place. The final threeball of Grillo, Hoge and Hovland is scheduled to tee off early at 3pm UK and Ireland time, with thunderstorms forecast for the area, so the event will be concluded much earlier than normal.

Ante-post market leader Justin Thomas burst into life after a quiet start to the event, firing a third-round 62 to propel himself into a share of fifth place. The pre-tournament 13-2 chance, who drifted to 40-1 in-running, is 15-2 going into the final round from four shots behind.

Leaderboard
-16 Emiliano Grillo
-15 Tom Hoge
-14 Viktor Hovland
-13 Adam Long
-12 Justin Thomas, Patrick Rodgers
-11 Lucas Glover, Russell Knox, Aaron Wise, Tony Finau

Best prices
9-4 E Grillo, 3 V Hovland, 6 T Hoge, 15-2 J Thomas, 12 A Long, 22 T Finau, 28 P Rodgers, 40 R Knox, 50 A Wise, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Emiliano Grillo loves El Camaleon - Saturday's effort was his 19th consecutive under-par round there - but that course comfort may not be enough to get him over the line in front in the Mayakoba Classic.

Grillo, who has gone five years without a PGA Tour victory, is a player who many punters have given up on as far as trophies go. His textbook swing and consistent ball-striking should have yielded a mantelpiece full of silverware by now, but he has got stuck on one win and shown lots of nerves when on leaderboards.

If Grillo holes a couple of good putts early on in round four, he may be able to settle, grow in self-belief, swagger like Diego Maradona and get the job done. But history suggests it is more likely the leader will get twitchy, the frailties in his putting stroke will be exposed, and the chasing pack will overtake.

At the prices, Viktor Hovland is much preferred to the favourite. The power-packed youngster would not be categorised as an El Camaleon natural, but rain has softened the fairways this week and encouraged the former amateur superstar. A Saturday 63 in which he covered the final six holes in four under par sets Hovland up wonderfully for Sunday.

Grillo and Hovland both have one Tour victory apiece, but Hovland has been a professional for less than 18 months. He is the world number 26 and hungry for action after missing the Masters. This great talent could be set to sign off for 2020 with a bang, setting up a glorious 2021.

Tom Hoge is a Tour maiden, while Adam Long is unconvincing in contention. Tony Finau may finally have found a putter he likes, but he was spraying too many drives coming home and a dismal back nine may have blown his chances. Justin Thomas and Aaron Wise can be fancied to finish strongly, but Hovland can repel them both and land a 3-1 winner for his Sunday followers.

Hovland finished fifth playing for Norway in the 2016 Eisenhower Trophy - two rounds of which was played at El Camaleon - and he was seventh in the individual scoring. That early sighter of El Camaleon appears to have helped him to contend there four years later, and two missed cuts by a shot in the Mayakoba when out of form may have disguised how much he likes this layout.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport