Steve Palmer's Italian Open predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Italian Open at Marco Simone on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7.30am Thursday

Best bets

Rasmus Hojgaard
2pts each-way 50-1 bet365
Guido Migliozzi
1.5pts each-way 80-1 bet365
Min Woo Lee
1.5pts each-way 40-1 Betfair, Power
Tom Lewis
0.5pt each-way 175-1 bet365

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Three players who are almost certain to be on Europe's 2023 Ryder Cup team are teeing up at the Marco Simone this week, getting some valuable practice on the course where they will probably face USA next year, and the illustrious trio dominate the Italian Open market.

Rory McIlroy suffered a near-miss at Wentworth on Sunday, pipped by his pal Shane Lowry in the BMW PGA Championship, and the FedEx Cup champion is a short-price favourite in Rome. McIlroy is playing superbly, but this is his course debut, and the odds appear stingy.

Matt Fitzpatrick was two over par for his final nine holes of the BMW PGA - an easy stretch - and the US Open champion missed the cut at the Marco Simone last year.

Viktor Hovland, like McIlroy is seeing the course for the first time this week, and the Norwegian's confidence took a hit on Sunday with a poor performance in the final round at Wentworth. Hovland has not had much time to sort out the dismal driving which destroyed his BMW PGA challenge.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Rasmus Hojgaard 50-1

Last year's Italian Open was all about the Hojgaard brothers - and this pair of Danish dudes could be about to make headlines at the Marco Simone again.

Nicolai Hojgaard took the title 12 months ago - just a week after Rasmus Hojgaard won the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre. The history-making Hojgaards had won back-to-back on the DP World Tour - and Rasmus seems well equipped to add a fresh twist to this incredible story.

Rasmus, still only 21, has already got three DP World Tour victories under his belt, and recent outings have hinted that a fourth success is close. He appears over the injury niggles which hampered his progress early this year and recent efforts have been encouraging.

Tenth place in the high-class company of the Scottish Open in July was a significant boost to confidence. He opened with a 63 on his way to 22nd place in the Made In HimmerLand the week before last, then followed up with three rounds in the 60s for 18th spot at Wentworth.

Last year, Rasmus arrived at the Marco Simone with an understandable mental hangover from Crans, and made a slow start. This stylish operator got sharper every day, though, finishing 18th, and there seems every chance he makes a bold play for his twin's title on Sunday.

Next best bet

Guido Migliozzi 80-1

The juicy prices against the name of home hero Guido Migliozzi are surprising. The 25-year-old has got star quality, underlined by his fourth-place finish on his US Open debut last year, and he finished 14th in the same tournament in June.

Migliozzi made a slow start to this season, experimenting with wearing glasses on the course, but recent efforts have been eye-catching. Three rounds of 68 for 13th place at Wentworth last week confirmed his comeback to form.

Migliozzi was a prolific winner of events in Italy as a junior and an amateur. He finished seventh as a teenager in the 2015 Abruzzo Open on his Alps Tour debut, then won that tournament in 2017. Gutsy Guido triumphed twice in Italy on the Alps Tour in 2018 and should give his fans plenty to cheer this week.

Other selections

Min Woo Lee 40-1

Tom Lewis 175-1

Min Woo Lee looks a Major champion in the making and the 24-year-old Australian may complete a DP World Tour hat-trick on Sunday. His last victory was a Rolex Series event and Lee has shown he is a man for the big occasion.

Lee's Major performances this year have been impressive - 14th on his Masters debut in April, 27th on his US Open debut in June, then 21st in his second Open appearance in July. Last Saturday, he showcased his talent again, carding an incredible 62 at Wentworth, following on from the 63 he conjured on the opening day of the Korn Ferry Tour Finals last month.

Lee finished 12th in last year's Italian Open and seems likely to make an impact at the Marco Simone again this week.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Tom Lewis, who is trying to get his career back on track, having faltered Stateside. The Englishman is eager to finish the season in the top 120 on the DP World Tour rankings to regain full playing rights. From 169th in the standings, he can make inroads in the Italian Open.

Lewis, two-time Portugal Masters champion and runner-up in the 2020 WGC in Memphis, was 13th in the Czech Masters last month and 12th in the Made In HimmerLand last time out. This class act is a DP World Tour dangerman.

Players to note

Antoine Rozner
The Frenchman has struck some solid ball-striking form and could threaten a third DP World Tour title if he can gets his putter working.

Adrian Meronk
The Irish Open champion was second at the Marco Simone last year and is 160 places better in the world rankings for his return.

Marco Simone course guide

Course Marco Simone Golf Club, Guidonia, Rome, Italy
Prize money €3m (€510,000 to the winner)
Length 7,268 yards
Par 71 - three par-fives; 11 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Viktor Hovland (10), Matt Fitzpatrick (11), Tyrrell Hatton (28), Lucas Herbert (53)
Course records- 72 holes 271 Nicolai Hojgaard 18 holes 64 Min Woo Lee, Henrik Stenson

Course winners taking part Nicolai Hojgaard

When to bet By 6.10am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 7.30am on Thursday

Time difference Italy is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - BMW PGA Championship 1 S Lowry (16-1), T2 J Rahm (8-1), R McIlroy (6-1), 4 T Gooch (33-1), T5 T Detry (110-1), V Hovland (18-1), S Kjeldsen (500-1), P Reed (45-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview Marco Simone GC last year took over from Chervo GC to host the Italian Open for the first time since 1994. Marco Simone, designed by Jim Fazio and David Mezzacane and opened in 1991, will be the Ryder Cup venue next year. It is a parkland, tree-lined, undulating layout, featuring numerous water hazards, lots of doglegs and slopey greens heavily guarded by bunkers. The 18th hole - a 626-yard monster - is not a straightforward birdie chance. The par-fours vary greatly in distance - there are four par-fours shorter than 400 yards, but the 503-yard eighth and the 495-yard 14th are much tougher

Story of last year Nicolai Hojgaard held off Adrian Meronk and Tommy Fleetwood to make it back-to-back DP World Tour success for the Hojgaards after brother Rasmus won the European Masters the previous week

Weather forecast Warm and sunny for the most part, but there is a thunderstorm threat for Thursday and Friday afternoons. Moderate breezes for the first three days are expected to die away on Sunday

Type of player suited to the challenge Trees, water, doglegs and greens surrounded by bunkers demand precise ball-striking at the Marco Simone, so quality ball-strikers should thrive

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Three of the last four Italian Open winners finished 60th or worse in their preceding event

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