Steve Palmer's Italian Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Mix, 12.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Guido Migliozzi to win twoball
2pts 8-11 Betfair, Power

Tommy Fleetwood to win twoball
2pts 8-11 Betfair, Power

Story so far

The Hojgaard brothers could be set for back-to-back European Tour victories, with Nicolai Hojgaard leading the Italian Open at Marco Simone Golf Club a week after Rasmus triumphed in the European Open at Crans-sur-Sierre.

Nicolai eagled the par-four 16th for the second time this week in round three of the Rome gathering, reaching 13 under par through 54 holes, enough for a one-shot advantage over Tommy Fleetwood and Daniel van Tonder.

The pacesetting Hojgaard, who got into the field through a late invite, is a best-price 3-1 to convert his slender advantage into a maiden European Tour title. His twin already has three Tour victories under his belt.

Pre-tournament 16-1 chance Fleetwood is 2-1 favourite with 18 holes to play. Van Tonder, who won the Kenya Savannah Classic in March, can be backed at 4-1 for Rome glory.

Leaderboard
-13 Nicolai Hojgaard
-12 Tommy Fleetwood, Daniel van Tonder
-11 Mikko Korhonen
-10 Min Woo Lee
-9 Oliver Farr, Alexander Levy, Victor Perez
-8 Edoardo Molinari, Ross Fisher, Francesco Laporta

Best prices
2 T Fleetwood, 3 N Hojgaard, 4 D Van Tonder, 8 M Korhonen, 12 M W Lee, 22 V Perez, 33 A Levy, 50 O Farr, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Nicolai Hojgaard says he has been inspired by the exploits of his brother Rasmus, but there must also be a layer of extra pressure which comes from trying to keep up with your more successful sibling, and only professional psychologists are probably qualified enough to work out what will be going on between the ears of the Tour maiden on Sunday.

The hunch is Hojgaard, gifted but often ragged, will struggle to maintain his gallop from the final twoball. The last match out - at 12.30pm UK and Ireland time - should be full of tension as both players in it lack experience of contending for top titles. This would be the biggest victory of Daniel van Tonder's career and the way he made an ugly bogey after a perfect drive at the par-five 18th hole in round three did not bode well for Sunday.

The leaderboard sets up superbly for Tommy Fleetwood and he will be furious with himself if he fails to take this opportunity to end a victory drought stretching back to the 2019 Nedbank Challenge. Being in the penultimate twoball with an ideal playing partner - the tidy and amiable Mikko Korhonnen - should allow Fleetwood to make short work of his one-shot deficit.

Fleetwood may triumph, but pressure from behind could come from talented Australian youngster Min Woo Lee and 60-1 Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation Victor Perez.

The 12-1 Lee and the 22-1 Perez are worth considering for punters not prepared to play the short odds on Fleetwood. There are still three each-way places up for grabs.

Guido Migliozzi, who closed with a 65 in Crans last week, can be fancied for a finishing flourish and a twoball success over Victor Dubuisson (10am), while Fleetwood looks another solid favourite against Korhonen (12.20pm).

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