Steve Palmer's Irish Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Jack Senior to win threeball
1pt 6-4 bet365, BoyleSports

Story so far

Aaron Rai, the 2019 Hong Kong Open champion, leads the Irish Open by a shot going into the final round at Galgorm Castle, Ballymena.

Rai, a 50-1 poke at the start of the week and a well-backed 33-1 chance by the time the action was about to commence in Northern Ireland, has been in contention throughout, opening with a 65 and following up with rounds of 70 and 67 to post eight under par through 54 holes.

Rai, a 25-year-old Wolverhampton lad who won three times on the Challenge Tour before making his European Tour breakthrough in Hong Kong, is a best-price 15-8 to turn his Irish Open advantage into victory.

Maverick Antcliff, who hauled his way back into the world's top 300 by finishing ninth in the Portugal Open last week, is alone in second place. Pre-tournament 8-1 favourite Shane Lowry missed the cut, while George Coetzee, second in the ante-post betting, is tied for 44th place, 13 shots behind.

Leaderboard
-8 Aaron Rai
-7 Maverick Antcliff
-6 Dean Burmester, Jazz Janewattananond, Oscar Lengden
-5 Toby Tree, Lucas Herbert
-4 Jordan Smith, John Catlin, Justin Harding
-3 Joakim Lagergren, Scott Hend, Ewen Ferguson, Rikard Karlberg

Best prices
15-8 A Rai, 6 M Antcliff, 15-2 J Janewattananond, 9 D Burmester, 10 L Herbert, 11 O Lengden, 22 J Catlin, 28 T Tree, J Harding, 30 J Smith, 45 J Lagergren, 80 R Karlberg, 125 bar

Final-round preview

Racing Post Sport 40-1 ante-post selection Aaron Rai takes a lead into round four and this measured character can be fancied to become the punters' pal.

Rai is made for the Galgorm Castle assignment - a tough, tight par-70, with juicy rough - and the straight-hitting Midlander has looked comfortable with his lofty position on the leaderboard all week. Aside from a short missed par-putt on the 11th in round three, predictably soon after one of those unsettling fairway chats with Sky Sports roving reporter Tim Barter, Rai has seemed totally at ease with the Galgorm assignment.

With less consistent ball-strikers around him on the board - like Maverick Antcliff, Dean Burmester and Jazz Janewattananond - Rai has laid the foundation for a strong title tilt.

Hope are high that Rai can finish the job - he showed bundles of bottle to repel Matt Fitzpatrick in Hong Kong to claim a maiden European Tour title - but the Sunday weather forecast is perhaps not ideal. Sunny skies and no wind means the leader will probably need to find a few birdies to take home the trophy. Pars may not be enough with a low score likely from someone in the chasing pack.

Dean Burmester, who has been in red-hot putting form in recent weeks, may be the chief danger, and Rai-backers may want to have a saver on the South African at 9-1. But with Joakim Lagergren close enough to deliver some place money for the Racing Post Sport followers, the urge to let Rai investments ride untainted is overwhelming. He makes few serious errors and anybody who beats him will probably be made to earn it.

Final-round threeball punters are pointed towards Jack Senior, who came roaring up the board in round three. Senior, establishing himself as a force on the European Tour, won on the Challenge Tour at Galgorm Castle last year and an Irish Open Saturday 66 showed his liking for the course again.

Senior closed with a 64 in his last event - the Portugal Masters - and he can be fancied to boss his group alongside Joost Luiten and Daan Huizing (11.55am) on Sunday.

The final threeball of Rai, Antcliff and Oscar Lengden is scheduled off at 12.50pm.

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