Steve Palmer's Houston Open final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Sunday

Best bet

Dustin Johnson to win the Houston Open
4pts 11-2 Betfair, Power

Story so far

The third round of the Houston Open was a rollercoaster ride for halfway pacesetter Sam Burns, but the PGA Tour maiden eventually ended up back in front and will take a one-shot advantage into Sunday at Memorial Park.

Burns, 100-1 ante-post, is 100-30 with 18 holes to play, with Jason Day and Carlos Ortiz tied for second place. Day, amid swing changes to ease pressure on his troublesome back, is 13-5 favourite heading into the denouement.

The big story of Saturday, though, was the form of Dustin Johnson. The world number one enjoyed a tremendous round of ball-striking, carding a bogey-free 66, moving menacingly into fifth place.

Johnson is only three shots off the lead and will be thrilled with how his comeback from Covid-19 is going. He admitted pre-tournament he had no idea what sort of shape his game was in after his spell on the sidelines, but with the Masters looming he appears to have shrugged off his illness and slipped wonderfully back into a groove.

Leaderboard
-9 Sam Burns
-8 Jason Day, Carlos Ortiz
-7 Sepp Straka
-6 Dustin Johnson
-5 Aaron Wise, Dawie van der Walt

Best prices
13-5 J Day, 100-30 S Burns, 11-2 D Johnson, 6 C Ortiz, 10 S Straka, 33 bar

Final-round preview

The shape of the Memorial Park leaderboard seems perfect for Dustin Johnson to claim a confidence-boosting pre-Masters victory, ending any doubt about his condition for the final Major of the year.

Masters punters were on Johnson-watch this week and the betting community will not have been surprised by his rusty first round, given how little practice he got while overcoming Covid-19. On Friday and Saturday, though, the world number one has shown his class, easing his way up the leaderboard, and from fifth place, three behind, the 11-2 against his name appears full of juice.

Jason Day has been handed market leadership, but the Australian, in the process of modifying his swing to protect his brittle back, could easily struggle with his technique down the stretch. Players going through swing changes often battle against their old instincts when the pressure level rises.

Sam Burns, who made four bogeys in round three, has been uncomfortable leading in previous PGA Tour breakthrough chances, so the spectre of Johnson looming over him is the last thing he needs.

Burns and his fast, aggressive swing could find plenty of trouble, while Carlos Ortiz and Sepp Straka are another pair of nervous maidens. Straka missed a three-foot putt on the 17th in round three to suggest he was already getting the jitters.

Johnson, then, may have little to worry about from those ahead of him if he continues his gallop. Warm, calm conditions should allow the best player in the field to make some early birdies and put his name in an intimidating position on the board.

With a trio of poor putters the big names just behind Johnson - Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Shane Lowry - it may be that Aaron Wise provides the main threat. Wise has been in the doldrums for a while, though, and a runner-up cheque would be welcome for him.

If Johnson's attitude is right, the 11-2 could quickly look enormous, and there appears no obvious reason why he will not be striving hard for the trophy. This week was about proving himself to both himself and his Tour rivals in the aftermath of Covid, laying down a Masters marker, and there is no better way of doing that than lifting silverware. He has probably surprised himself with how quickly his A-game has returned, but now that it has, expect the Carolinian beast to take advantage.

The final threeball of Burns, Day and Ortiz is scheduled on the tee at 4pm UK and Ireland time. Johnson tees off at 3.49pm, alongside Straka and Wise.

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