Steve Palmer's Honda Classic third-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 11.45am Saturday

Best bets

Adam Svensson to win Honda Classic
2pts each-way 14-1 general

Shane Lowry to win Honda Classic
1pt each-way 25-1 general

Story so far

Daniel Berger will take a three-shot lead into the weekend of the Honda Classic, having posted back-to-back rounds of 65 at PGA National, Florida.

Berger, 16-1 ante-post, has become a general 5-6 chance with 36 holes to play. The Floridian withdrew from the Pebble Beach Pro-Am on tournament-eve at the start of this month with a back injury, then he missed the cut by three shots in the Phoenix Open on his return to action.

Fitness appears to have returned at PGA National, though, and form certainly has. While most of the field struggled - and the cut fell at two over par - Berger carded 11 birdies to reach ten under par at his hometown event.

Berger, who lost a playoff to Padraig Harrington for the 2015 Honda Classic, is seeking a first PGA Tour title in Florida. The 28-year-old has won four times, most recently at Pebble Beach last season. He was second in the betting this week to Sungjae Im, who missed the cut by two shots.

Leaderboard
-10 Daniel Berger
-7 Chris Kirk, Kurt Kitayama
-6 Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson
-5 Chase Seiffert, Sepp Straka
-3 Lee Hodges, Roger Sloan, Shane Lowry, John Huh
-2 Nick Watney, Alexander Noren, Taylor Pendrith, Gary Woodland, Dylan Frittelli, William McGirt, Beau Hossler, Russell Knox, Martin Contini, Sam Stevens

Best prices
5-6 D Berger, 7 C Kirk, 14 A Svensson, 18 M Hubbard, 20 K Kitayama, 25 S Lowry, 28 S Straka, 40 C Seiffert, 50 A Noren, 80 bar

Third-round preview

Daniel Berger appears to have got over the niggles which have been troubling him and is revelling the opportunity of performing close to his Jupiter home. Rather injury-plagued for one so young, Berger had to miss the Honda Classic last year with a rib problem, but he has come back with a bang this week.

Berger is so far doing a similar job to that which Joaquin Niemann managed in the Genesis Invitational last week - kicking clear a long way from home. Niemann was 11-10 at this stage last week, while Berger is 5-6. Niemann had a stronger field to repel, but a course without any water hazards. Berger seems a skinny price given the amount of aqua he must safely negotiate over the next two days.

Berger is emphatically the most likely winner - and he has been managing his game well - but his ugly swing is prone to the odd howler and the PGA National waterpark will severely punish any errant hitting.

Alexander Noren seems the only realistic hope of success from the Racing Post Sport pre-tournament investments - Sungjae Im and Matt Jones have missed the cut, while Keith Mitchell and Billy Horschel have left themselves a mountain to climb - so a couple of halfway wagers are recommended at this stage with general each-way terms of a quarter the three (a fifth the four with Hills).

Noren, with back-to-back 69s meaning a share of 12th place, has the ability to force his way into contention if Berger shows frailty up front. But a little closer to the leader are Adam Svensson and Shane Lowry, who are better positioned to take advantage if Berger puts any meaty numbers on his scorecard.

Svensson won the PGA Tour Qualifying School at the PGA National complex in 2015 (two rounds were staged on the same track used for the Honda) and he confirmed that liking for the course with a Friday 64 on his Honda debut. This week, the Canadian has opened up with rounds of 69 and 65, sharing fourth. From only four shots behind, this three-time Korn Ferry Tour champion seems dangerous.

Lowry, a neighbour of Berger having become a Jupiter resident himself, is clearly comfortable at PGA National. The Irishman made a solid start to this year in the Middle East and appears to be warming to his task this week from seven shots off the pace.

The only negative against Svensson this week was a lack of quality recent form, but he has found his A-game over the first two days of the Honda.

The only negative against Lowry's name this week was that he was making his first Stateside start of the year and may have needed time to settle on the faster greens, but a Friday 67 was encouraging.

If Berger flops from the front, Svensson, Lowry and Noren could be waiting to take advantage. The draw for round three will be made once round two - delayed due to darkness falling on Friday evening - is completed early on Saturday. Andrew Kozan is the only player left to finish round two. Round three should commence at lunchtime UK time, with the leaders teeing off early evening.

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