Steve Palmer's Honda Classic predictions & golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Honda Classic at PGA National as Steve Palmer bids to complete a PGA Tour hat-trick after 25-1 and 60-1 winners the last two weeks.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.45am on Thursday

Best bets

Billy Horschel
3pts each-way 22-1 Hills

Sungjae Im
4pts 12-1 general

Alexander Noren
2pts each-way 33-1 Hills

Keith Mitchell
1.5pts each-way 35-1 Hills

Matt Jones
1pt each-way 50-1 bet365

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Joaquin Niemann is seeking back-to-back PGA Tour glory, bidding to follow up his Genesis Invitational success in California with a victory on the other side of America this week, and the Chilean youngster is asking a lot of himself.

Aside from the differences between Riviera and this week's PGA National layout, the mental strain of his wire-to-wire triumph against the best field assembled for any tournament this year will probably take some sort of toll in Florida. Niemann set the pace throughout the Genesis, enduring a tough Sunday, and fresher players are preferred for 72 challenging holes at the notoriously demanding PGA National.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Billy Horschel 22-1

The PGA Tour putting statistics make wonderful reading for Billy Horschel - and that upturn in flat-stick confidence could be key to the popular Floridian enjoying home-state glory for the first time this week.

The improved form on the greens may be down to the green-reading books being banned at the start of this season. Horschel, who has always been a strong lag putter, may be thriving in this new PGA Tour era where eyes and instinct have taken over from maps and vectors.

Horschel is second in the putting stats - and also performing well around the dancefloors - so has become a dangerous customer given he can usually be relied upon for rock-solid tee-to-green work. He would dearly love to hold PGA Tour silverware aloft in the Sunshine State - and the Honda Classic appears to represents an excellent opportunity.

Horschel won the FedEx Cup in 2014 and he has triumphed five times as an individual on the PGA Tour, as well as in the 2018 Zurich Classic pairs event. Last year he became the WGC-Match Play champion, before following up by winning the European Tour's flagship event - the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth.

Horschel was born in Florida and it has always been home for him. The Jacksonville-based star was second behind Collin Morikawa in the WGC at The Concession (Florida) a year ago and Horschel has twice threatened in the Honda, finishing eighth in 2016 and fourth in 2017.

In his current mood, the 35-year-old can be fancied to contend again on a layout which is perfect for him. Horschel's last two Tour starts have resulted in 11th place in the Farmers Insurance Open, despite some neck and shoulder pain on tournament-eve, then sixth place in the Phoenix Open. He had a week off between those two events - and had another one last week - so fitness and form looks likely for the Honda. Only one player outscored him in the final round in Phoenix.

Next best bet

Sungjae Im 12-1

The favourite deserves huge respect for this low-grade assignment and a win-only investment in Sungjae Im is recommended. The Korean is a class above most of this field and could easily follow his Presidents Cup colleague Niemann into the PGA Tour winner's enclosure.

Im is the same age as Niemann and they both made their Presidents Cup debut at Royal Melbourne in 2019. Niemann's success may have inspired Im, who also has two Tour titles to his name. Im scored three more points than his pal in Melbourne and will probably go on to greater things - a suspicion encouraged by Im's runner-up effort in the 2020 Masters.

The 2020 Honda Classic provided Im's maiden Tour title, he has twice finished third in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, and he has a fourth place to his name in the Valspar Championship, so the 23-year-old has rapidly established himself as a force in Florida, where he typically revels on the Bermuda grass greens.

Im was 11th in The American Express, sixth in the Farmers Insurance Open, and only four players outscored him in round four on Sunday at Riviera, where he signed off with a 67.

Other selections

Alexander Noren 33-1

Keith Mitchell 35-1

Matt Jones 50-1

Alex Noren was a prolific winner on the European Tour - ten times the Swede has triumphed on his home circuit - but he is still waiting for a PGA Tour breakthrough. He was unfortunate to have JB Holmes as a Sunday playing partner in the 2018 Farmers Insurance Open - the snail-like American caused a huge delay on the 72nd hole when Noren was on the brink of victory. Noren went on to lose a playoff to Jason Day.

Noren's last European Tour success came in the 2018 French Open at Le Golf National - a tough track with lots of water hazards - and his only Ryder Cup appearance came on the same course. He scored two points from three matches and beat Bryson DeChambeau in the singles. PGA National is a similar assignment. Noren lives 20 minutes up the road and finished third in the 2018 Honda. After sixth place in the Phoenix Open the week before last, his claims are obvious.

Complete a strong staking plan with two other former Honda champions. Keith Mitchell was a courageous Honda winner in 2019 when he repelled Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler to win by a shot. Mitchell has also played well in the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill - sixth in 2019, fifth in 2020 - and he relishes Bermuda grass greens.

In October, Mitchell set the early pace in the CJ Cup - a high-class affair in which he was beaten only by Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa - and that form has carried into this year. Mitchell was seventh in the Sony Open, 12th at Pebble Beach and tenth in the Phoenix Open.

Defending champion Matt Jones obliterated the field last year - a five-shot romp which demonstrated the quality of his A-game. That A-game was again on show over the weekend of the Sentry Tournament of Champions at the start of this year - he closed with rounds of 62 and 61 in an astonishing 23-under-par 36-hole burst for third place.

Jones has not done much since Hawaii, but a closing 68 for 15th place in last week's Genesis Invitational was the perfect pre-Honda tonic. Jones was fourth on his Honda debut in 2008 and the two-time Tour champion could complete a hat-trick on Sunday.

Players to note

Mito Pereira
Back-to-back Chilean winners on the PGA Tour seems entirely feasible given the ball-striking quality of this three-time Korn Ferry Tour champion, who finished 15th at Riviera on Sunday.

Brooks Koepka
This class act lives close to the course and finished second in the 2019 Honda. If he has tightened up his erratic driving since last week's Genesis flop, he should contend.

Cameron Young
A cheque for more than a million dollars was a wonderful reward for Young's runner-up effort in the Genesis on Sunday. With his PGA Tour future assured, the 25-year-old powerhouse takes on a course this week where he won a prestigious event as a junior. Dangerman.

Shane Lowry
The Irishman's Stateside base is close to PGA National and he will expect to make an impression. This is his first PGA Tour outing of the year.

PGA National course guide

Course PGA National (Champion Course), Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Prize money $8m ($1.26m to the winner)
Length 7,125 yards
Par 70 - two par-fives; 12 par-fours; four par-threes
Field 144 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Louis Oosthuizen (13), Brooks Koepka (15), Joaquin Niemann (20), Daniel Berger (21), Billy Horschel (22)

Course records- 72 holes 267 Camilo Villegas (2010)
18 holes 61 Brian Harman (2012), Matt Jones (2021)

Course winners taking part Camilo Villegas, Rory Sabbatini, Michael Thompson, Padraig Harrington, Rickie Fowler, Keith Mitchell, Sungjae Im, Matt Jones

When to bet By 11.45am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 11.45am on Thursday

Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Genesis Invitational 1 J Niemann (60-1), T2 C Morikawa (18-1), C Young (225-1), T4 A Scott (45-1), V Hovland (28-1), 6 J Thomas (16-1), T7 M McNealy (100-1), S Scheffler (33-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The George Fazio-designed Champion Course is one of the toughest layouts on the PGA Tour. Jack Nicklaus oversaw redesigns in 1990 and 2014. The Honda Classic has been at this venue since 2007, with 72-hole totals of just six under par or worse enough to top the leaderboard on four occasions. The back-nine is particularly difficult. The Bear Trap – a trio of brutal holes from the 15th to the 17th – are where the event is often won and lost. The two par-fives – the third and the 18th – are where players will expect to pick up shots

Story of last year Matt Jones produced a masterclass to win his second PGA Tour title, reaching 12 under to win by five shots

Weather forecast Sunny, with temperatures around 26C, and light breezes

Type of player suited to the challenge The Champion Course, with heavy bunkering, plenty of water hazards, and thick rough, is a strong tee-to-green test where only crisp ball-striking will produce results. Accurate grinders typically flourish

Key attribute Accuracy

Spotlight insight Nine of the 15 Honda winners at PGA National finished in the top ten for greens in regulation

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