Steve Palmer's Gran Canaria Lopesan Open final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 1pm Sunday

Best bets

Sam Horsfield
3pts 8-1 bet365

Garrick Higgo
3pts 21-10 bet365

Story so far

Garrick Higgo charged to the top of the leaderboard in round three of the Gran Canaria Lopesan Open, the South African firing a 63 to move two shots clear at Meloneras Golf.

Higgo, 40-1 ante-post and a 12-1 chance after opening with rounds of 65 and 64, has continued to progress his daily score and built his Saturday sizzler on an almost perfect start. He birdied the first three holes, then eagled the fourth on his way to taking charge of the tournament.

Higgo, 18 under par, is a best-price 23-10 going into Sunday. He won his maiden European Tour title in neighbouring Portugal - the 2020 Open de Portugal - and the 21-year-old Johannesburg boy is hunting a follow-up in Spain.

Halfway pacesetter, Thorbjorn Olesen, has dropped to a share of seventh place, four shots behind, despite making birdie at his final two holes of round three.

Leaderboard
-18 Garrick Higgo
-16 Connor Syme, Matthieu Pavon, Matthias Schwab
-15 Jeff Winther, Sam Horsfield
-14 Ashun Wu, Guido Migliozzi, Jamie Donaldson, JB Hansen, Rhys Enoch, Max Kieffer, Wil Besseling, Thorbjorn Olesen

Best prices
21-10 G Higgo, 11-2 M Schwab, 8 C Syme, S Horsfield, 12 M Pavon, 18 J Winther, 28 G Migliozzi, JB Hansen, 28 W Besseling, 33 J Donaldson, T Olesen, 40 A Wu, M Kieffer, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Golf punting is a game of fine margins and whittling down a shortlist in full-field events can be a troublesome task. The majority of punters will have had Sam Horsfield and Garrick Higgo under pre-tournament consideration - 18-1 and 40-1 on Wednesday - and those who took the plunge can be on excellent terms with themselves.

The question for those yet to get involved is whether the H boys still represent value at the remaining prices. The answer given the odds and the fact that they are surrounded by European Tour maidens on the leaderboard is an emphatic yes.

Connor Syme, Matthieu Pavon, Matthias Schwab and Jeff Winther have never secured a Tour victory. Horsfield has two to his name already at the age of 24, while Higgo got off the mark last year and turns 22 next month. If the frontrunning Higgo is to be reeled in, there is a great chance that it is hotshot Horsfield who does the fishing.

Horsfield, impressive on his return to action on the Kenya Swing, compiling form figures of 8-3, followed up with an 18-birdie burst over the weekend of the Austrian Open for 15th place on Sunday.

The Florida-based star improved as the temperature rose in Austria - and he has much preferred the warmer conditions in Gran Canaria.
Horsfield won the 2017 European Q School in Spain by an eight-shot margin - reaching 27 under par in Tarragona - and his penchant for super-low scoring is well suited to the short, relatively easy Meloneras Golf.

From three shots behind, Horsfield will feel confident of having a chance going down the stretch in Gran Canaria, but he will be disappointed to see it is Higgo who has gone clear. Higgo is one of the most promising youngsters on the circuit and he won well in nearby Portugal last year with a final-round 65.

It is not difficult to imagine a scenario on a sunny, calm Sunday in which the maidens on the board tread water, while Higgo and Horsfield continue to merrily ride the birdie train. Punters who can access a dual-forecast price on Higgo and Horsfield should consider that option. A more straightforward play is to back them both, perhaps using Higgo as a mere stake saver.

Higgo and Syme tee off at 12.35pm on Sunday in the final twoball. Gran Canaria time is the same as the UK and Ireland. Horsfield is off at 12.24pm in the company of Winther.

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