Steve Palmer's Genesis Invitational third-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Viktor Hovland top European
4pts 5-6 Betfair, Power

Sungjae Im to win 6.05pm threeball
3pts 20-23 bet365, Hills

Story so far

Joaquin Niemann has produced a ball-striking masterclass over the first two days of the Genesis Invitational to reach 16 under par and become 11-10 market leader.

The 23-year-old Chilean, who was 75-1 at the start of the week and teed off a well-backed 55-1 chance, has opened up at Riviera Country Club with back-to-back rounds of 63. The well established Los Angeles venue has never been a pushover, but an inspired Niemann has been making it look easy.

The 36-hole record at Riviera was 130 shots, but Niemann smashed that by four after opening round two with an eagle and a birdie. The former world number one amateur has won only once on the PGA Tour - the 2019 Greenbrier. That success was by a six-shot margin.

Cameron Young has also excelled over the first two rounds - the Tour maiden is only two shots behind - while Justin Thomas is alone in third spot a further three shots off the pace. World number one Jon Rahm made a six-foot putt at the 18th hole to make the cut on the mark, but the Spaniard is 16 shots behind Niemann.

Leaderboard
-16 Joaquin Niemann
-14 Cameron Young
-11 Justin Thomas
-9 Adam Scott, Jordan Spieth
-8 Collin Morikawa
-7 Russell Knox, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Smith

Best prices
11-10 J Niemann, 4 J Thomas, 13-2 C Young, 14 J Spieth, 16 C Morikawa, 18 A Scott, 28 V Hovland, 30 C Smith, 100 bar

Third-round preview

Joaquin Niemann has made serene progress through 36 holes, gaining more than 11 shots on the field from tee to green, spearing his approaches at the flagsticks.

This could be the season where Niemann comes of age, fulfilling the immense promise he showed as an amateur. He topped the amateur rankings for 44 weeks before turning professional in the spring of 2018.

Niemann was a Genesis Invitational Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendation at 60-1, so punters with a decent wager at healthy odds have a good opportunity to make the market work for them, given the leader is no bigger than 11-10 at the halfway stage.

The good news for Niemann backers is that his lone PGA Tour title came from the front - rounds of 65, 62, 68, 64 for a six-shot romp in the Greenbrier. He has shown he is capable of maintaining stellar early-event form and kicking on for the line.

The bad news for Niemann backers is that the 2019 Greenbrier field was a million times weaker than the 2022 Genesis field. He will have to repel plenty of class acts to win the Genesis.

The other negative is that Niemann ran well to halfway in last year's Genesis, before fading to 43rd place. The 67, 68, 78, 72 sequence from last year will probably be lurking somewhere in the back of Niemann's mind.

This is not a time for Niemann or his backers to be negative though - he has played golf from the gods for the last two days and will carry great confidence into the weekend. If he can get through Saturday without any cardbusters, his list of challengers will probably dwindle to a tiny group. The first hole at Riviera provides a lovely settler - one of the easiest par-fives on the Tour - and hopes will be high for a positive day if the leader can register an immediate birdie.

Lanny Wadkins' Riviera record of 20 under par for 72 holes has stood since 1985. The fact that Niemann can match it with a pair of weekend 69s shows just how well he has played through 36 holes.

Punters on Niemann at the juicy odds may want to cover on some of the chasing pack. Racing Post Sport followers are already on Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland, a top-class duo provided strong back-up from just off the pace. Perhaps an investment in Cameron Young (13-2), Justin Thomas (4-1) and Cameron Smith (30-1) may further cement chances of success.

Young is one of the most promising youngsters on the circuit - full of power and birdies - and he should shed his maiden tag at some stage. It is doubtful the breakthrough happens in as good a company as the Genesis, but it is certainly feasible.

Thomas has moved menacingly into third place. When Thomas putts well, he is capable of destroying any course, so it would come as no surprise should he be the one putting most pressure on Niemann down the stretch on Sunday.

Morikawa, Hovland and Smith, who won the Sentry Tournament of Champions last month and typically carries a magic wand on the greens, seem the most likely candidates to come from behind Thomas and threaten Niemann.

Pick of the Saturday options is the 5-6 about Hovland ending the week as top European. Hovland caught fire yesterday, carding a 64 to show last week's Phoenix failure was nothing more than a blip, and the brilliant Norwegian should forge further forward over the weekend. Having already claimed a share of the lead in the top-Euro market, the odds seem enormous.

Sungjae Im can be expected to boss Kevin Tway and C.T Pan in the 6.05pm (UK and Ireland time) threeball. The final threeball of Niemann, Young and Thomas is scheduled on the tee at 7pm UK an Ireland time. A sunny, calm weekend is forecast, but the course will dry out and get more difficult.

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