Steve Palmer's Farmers Insurance Open final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 4.15pm Sunday

Best bets

Jon Rahm to win Farmers Insurance Open
2pts 9-2 BoyleSports, Hills

Will Zalatoris to win threeball
2pts 5-2 bet365, Betway

Rory McIlroy to win threeball
2pts 11-10 Betfair, Power

Advised yesterday

Paul Casey (10-11, Dubai Desert Classic) and Jon Rahm (100-30) double
2pts Betfair, Power

Story so far

Patrick Reed has become the centre of attention again due to a rules controversy - the third day of the Farmers Insurance Open completely overshadowed by events on the tenth hole and the long aftermath.

Reed birdied the 18th hole to claim a share of the lead going into Sunday and is the 7-2 favourite with 18 holes to play, but the 30-year-old Texan will be playing under intense scrutiny after taking relief at the tenth hole in round three.

Reed determined his ball had embedded in the rough after his errant approach shot. He had asked his playing partners and the volunteers in attendance whether they had seen his ball bounce and nobody said they had. He picked up his ball, then called a rules official, who he asked to inspect the ground where his ball had entered.

The official, when told by Reed that the ball had not bounced, ruled in his favour. An embedded ball meant a free drop to a much better lie, from which Reed got up and down for par. Television pictures of his approach shot, though, show the ball clearly bouncing before settling. No relief is given if balls bounce before entering the ground.

The PGA Tour have said they are "fine with the outcome of the situation", so Reed does not appear to be getting any post-round penalty strokes. The drama continued on Twitter, as a defence was issued on Reed's official Twitter account. Simultaneously, with exactly the same words used, the tweet was made from an account called GolfFACTS.

Reed is tied with Carlos Ortiz. Jon Rahm is tied for third place, just two shots behind, while Rory McIlroy shares eighth spot, only three shots off the lead.

Leaderboard
-10 Carlos Ortiz, Patrick Reed
-8 Sam Burns, Lanto Griffin, Viktor Hovland, Jon Rahm, Adam Scott
-7 Sam Ryder, Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris, Ryan Palmer
-6 Xander Schauffele, Henrik Norlander, Peter Malnati, Robby Shelton, Tony Finau

Best prices
7-2 P Reed, 9-2 J Rahm, 6 C Ortiz, 9 R McIlroy, V Hovland, 11 A Scott, 18 S Burns, 20 L Griffin, 28 W Zalatoris, X Schauffele, 33 R Palmer, T Finau, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Patrick Reed has a notoriously thick skin. He has happily antagonized European supporters during Ryder Cups, he has appeared to cruise through previous rules controversies without batting an eyelid, and he even held it together when aggressive Australians were abusing him from close-range in the last Presidents Cup. His caddie lost his temper and reacted, but Reed shrugged it off.

This Sunday of the Farmers Insurance Open, though, could be the biggest test of temperament Reed has ever faced in his golfing career. It helps that no galleries are in attendance to add to the intensity, but Reed still has a lot on his plate.

It is generally accepted that Reed got relief when he should not have done - the man himself has admitted that the TV replays prove his ball bounced - but at the time he went through what he and the PGA Tour have deemed the correct procedures and both parties seem happy for no further action to be taken.

Whether every player would react the same way after the round is debatable - if Reed demanded a two-shot penalty having seen the TV evidence, the Tour would likely yield to such a request. The grandest gesture of all - and one that would do wonders for Reed's reputation - would be to disqualify himself from the tournament.

Regardless of the rules issue, though, perhaps the most unsettling aspect of Saturday for Reed was what happened on Twitter. Accusations are rife about GolfFACTS being Reed's 'burner account'. Other players - Justin Thomas especially - have been subject to much criticism from the GolfFACTS account in the past and the talk of golf locker rooms from Torrey Pines to the Emirates Club will be about whether this criticism has come from Reed's camp or not. It may be that a Twitter blunder - rather than a rules debate - causes more problems for Reed in getting focused for the Farmers final round.

All things considered, it is difficult to imagine a comfortable ride from the top of the leaderboard to the trophy for Reed. He is winless since February 23 and admitted yesterday that he is still not entirely comfortable with swing changes he has been making with his relatively new coach David Leadbetter.

On a long, demanding course like Torrey Pines South, Reed's ball-striking may not be strong enough to repel the chasing pack.
Carlos Ortiz, lacking much experience of contending for top-class titles, relied on a hot putter for his Saturday fireworks and may also struggle to retain his prominent position.

The Sams - Burns and Ryder - are both nervous maidens. Ryan Palmer is winless since January, 2010, Viktor Hovland may have one or two too many loose shots in him to be victorious at Torrey Pines South, while Adam Scott's putting under pressure is typically X-rated.

Those at six under par may have given themselves too much work to do, so outright punters are advised to concentrate on Jon Rahm, Lanto Griffin, Will Zalatoris and Rory McIlroy.

Rahm, who can boast Farmers form figures of 1-29-5-2, is the most attractive option at all. Zalatoris was a pre-tournament selection at 60-1 - and hopes remain high that the Korn Ferry Tour star can give himself a chance down the stretch - but beating Rahm seems likely to be a tough challenge.

The reasons for leaving Rahm alone as pre-tournament 7-1 favourite were concerns about his fitness in the wake of his American Express withdrawal and worries about him still adjusting to new clubs after a New Year equipment switch. Well, his fitness appears 100 percent and he seems more comfortable with his clubs than he did in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. In fact, he appears to adore his new putter and can be fancied to hole his share in round four.

Rahm at 9-2 with 18 holes to play is hugely more appealing than he was at 7-1 with 72 to play. Rahm has the potential to establish himself as the new King of Torrey Pines, given his previous record at the track, the prospect of him winning a first Major there in June's US Open, and the fact the old king - Tiger Woods - is recovering from back surgery.

Expect Rahm to take advantage of any Reed wobble, with Zalatoris, Griffin and McIlroy, who has played well this week while enduring much frustration on the greens, joining the Spaniard on the front foot.

Rahm was advised in a double with Paul Casey (Dubai Desert Classic) prior to round three of the Farmers, but a Rahm single is recommended, too. Zalatoris (5.50pm UK and Ireland time) and McIlroy (6pm) appear the best value threeball options. Zalatoris is up against Palmer and Xander Schauffele, while McIlroy faces Scott and Ryder.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits.

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

CLAIM OFFER HERE

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport