Steve Palmer's Farmers Insurance Open final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 5.30pm Saturday

Best bets

Tony Finau top American
2pts each-way 5-1 Betfair, Power

Keegan Bradley to win 6.58pm threeball
2pts 7-4 general

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Story so far

Jon Rahm, emphatic favourite for the Farmers Insurance Open ante-post, has shortened from 4-1 to 6-5 through the first three rounds. The Spaniard made a slow start, opening with a 73 on Wednesday, but he has charged into second place following rounds of 67 and 66.

The Farmers, finishing Saturday so as not to clash with the Sunday NFL matches, could be the stage for Rahm winning his third consecutive PGA Tour title. In his last two starts, the rampant 28-year-old has triumphed in the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express.

Sam Ryder is the only player ahead of Rahm at Torrey Pines. Ryder, a 33-year-old PGA Tour maiden who started the Farmers as a 300-1 rag, is two shots clear of his illustrious opponent. Ryder has won once on the Korn Ferry Tour, a victory which came almost six years ago.

A bogey-free Friday 64 from Tony Finau moved the giant Utah man into third place, while Max Homa and Collin Morikawa are among those tied for fourth spot. The final threeball of Ryder, Rahm and Finau tees off at 7.20pm UK and Ireland time. A cloudy, breezy day is forecast.

Leaderboard
-12 Sam Ryder
-10 Jon Rahm
-8 Tony Finau
-7 Sungjae Im, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa, Sahith Theegala
-6 S.H Kim

Best prices
6-5 J Rahm, 5-2 S Ryder, 7 T Finau, 18 C Morikawa, M Homa, 20 S Im, 33 S Theegala, 125 bar

Final-round preview

Jon Rahm adores Torrey Pines and is looking to add another chapter to his proud history at this iconic venue. Rahm won his maiden PGA Tour title in the 2017 Farmers, he got engaged on the Torrey cliffs, then he landed the 2021 US Open at Torrey with a spectacular late rattle.

Rahm's Farmers rivals this week know that a finishing flourish is likely. In 2017, a Sunday 65 meant a three-shot triumph, then his 67 on the final day of the US Open stunned Louis Oosthuizen and the others on the leaderboard.

Sam Ryder has been talking a good game about how he is going to “enjoy it”, but the pressure of fending off the most in-form player on the planet, who is competing on his favourite course, seems likely to prove too much.

Ryder has won at low grades – in Canada and on the Korn Ferry – but never on the main circuit. And all his PGA Tour top-fives have come in weak gatherings missing the big boys. With Rahm, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Max Homa and others breathing down his neck, it would be remarkable if Ryder managed to repel them all.

Racing Post Sport pre-tournament recommendations – Finau at 14-1 and Homa at 20-1 – are in position to deliver place returns and will be hopeful that they can take advantage of any wobbling in front from Ryder. Some vulnerability from the leader seems on the cards, but Finau and Homa will know that Rahm is far less likely to be so generous.

Finau is conceding a two-shot start to Rahm, while Homa must overcome a three-shot deficit, so there seems precious little margin for error given how well Rahm has been playing. He did not even play badly on Wednesday – he was only fractionally off – and favourite backers (and Rahm himself) will be expecting to collect.

Finau, Homa and Morikawa seem the main threats to Rahm supporters. Morikawa has struck his ball superbly this week and the potential to reverse roles on Rahm will not be lost on Morikawa. In the Sentry at the start of this month, Morikawa was overtaken by a late Rahm move, so Morikawa has the opportunity to get his revenge. A warming of the putter would give Morikawa a chance.

A war of attrition can be expected given the forecast for breeze and temperatures struggling to better 15C. Ryder may get quickly swamped, leaving Rahm, Finau, Homa and Morikawa to battle for the title. Sungjae Im's putting has been unconvincing in the early weeks of this year, while Sahith Theegala may be too wild from tee to green to threaten the trophy.

Final-round threeballs punters are pointed towards Keegan Bradley in the 6.58pm match – the former US PGA champion can hang tough against Theegala and S.H Kim – while anyone who can access the 5-1 with Betfair and Power about Finau for top American should gobble it up.

With each-way terms of a fifth the odds, the first three, unflappable Finau looks a golden investment at 5-1.

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