Steve Palmer's Dutch Open predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Dutch Open at Bernardus Golf on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Thomas Pieters
5pts 12-1 general
Dean Burmester
2.5pts each-way 22-1 Coral, Ladbrokes
Johannes Veerman
2pts each-way 25-1 Betfair, Betfred, Power
Wilco Nienaber
1pt each-way 90-1 bet365
Elvis Smylie
0.5pt each-way 250-1 bet365

Tournament preview

Joost Luiten is seeking to complete a Dutch Open hat-trick this week and the local man will be a popular choice for the low-key Cromvoirt shootout.

Luiten, runner-up in the event in 2007 before winning in 2013 and 2016, has been in solid nick and is the touring professional for Bernardus Golf. The course knowledge advantage of the six-time Tour champion should allow him to go well, but Luiten has been shaky in contention in his mid-30s and others are preferred at the prices.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Thomas Pieters 12-1

Wentworth provided a significant boost in confidence for Thomas Pieters, a former Ryder Cup star who will be disappointed to be missing next week's meeting with the States, and the Belgian can build on his BMW PGA form by winning close to home in the Dutch Open.

Pieters is a four-time European Tour champion at the age of 29, but such was the quality of his Ryder Cup appearance in 2016, when he was top scorer, and his Masters debut a few months later (tied fourth) he seems like a massive underachiever. Maybe the floodgates will soon open and titles will flow his way if the putting strides made at Wentworth prove a turning point.

Pieters said he made some alterations to his stroke and felt extremely comfortable on the BMW PGA greens. He finished 15th in the putts-per-round statistics and his short game in general looked in fantastic nick. All week he showcased a magic touch around the dancefloors.

Pieters eagled the 18th hole on Sunday to put the icing on the cake of a bogey-free 66. He finished ninth in the tournament, carding nothing worse than a bogey all week, having shown promise in the Italian Open at the start of this month.

Four under-par rounds in Italy for 18th place were encouraging - and his Wentworth performance even more so. He won the Dutch Open in 2015 and should fall in love with the generous fairways and open terrain of the Bernardus.

Next best bet

Dean Burmester 22-1

South Africa is strongly represented at the Dutch Open and Dean Burmester may prove the pick of the bunch. He is one of the longest drivers on the circuit and should love the set-up this week. Burmester's putting stroke is excellent these days too, and he won the Tenerife Open in May.

Since that Tenerife success, which he put down to an improved attitude on the course, Burmester has been a leaderboard regular. He was sixth in the Czech Masters last month on a similar course to this one and carded four solid rounds of 70 in the BMW PGA last week on less suitable terrain.

Other selections

Johannes Veerman 25-1

Wilco Nienaber 90-1

Elvis Smylie 250-1

Johannes Veerman is an American with a Dutch father - Jan Veerman would dearly love to see his son succeed this week - and Veerman Junior seems well up to the task. As one of the nicest guys on the circuit, there were question marks over his killer instinct, but he showed his mettle when emerging triumphant from a congested leaderboard in the Czech Masters last month.

Veerman faces a similar assignment this week and the result may be the same. He was eighth in the Italian Open the week before last, then did alright at Wentworth until a dismal six-hole stretch in the middle of the back-nine on Sunday. Generally, he has been swinging superbly in recent months and seems a must for the staking plan.

Complete a five-pronged attack with two powerful outsiders - Wilco Nienaber and Elvis Smylie. Both are raw talents who appear to have wonderful futures. Nienaber is inconsistent, but he won the Dimension-Data Pro-Am on the Sunshine Tour in May and finished 14th on his PGA Tour debut in the Palmetto Championship in June. The South African ball-crusher has already posted three top-six finishes on the European Tour and should become a champion before long.

Smylie is a 19-year-old Aussie left-hander who has been showing immense promise on his home circuit. Three top-threes on the Australasian Tour this year earned him a couple of sponsors invites to the European Tour. Both Euro spins resulted in a missed cut, but his scores have improved in each round - 76, 75, 74, 71 - and he missed out by just a shot in the Cazoo Open last time out.

Smylie should be less daunted by his third European Tour start and can use the straightforward layout to show off his beautiful swing. His backers could be smiling on Sunday.

Players to note

George Coetzee
Power off the tee and a hot putter seem the keys to success this week - both qualities Coetzee usually brings to the course. He won a Sunshine Tour event last month.

Sam Horsfield
The Florida-based Englishman has been swinging well over the last few months, but putting poorly. This seems another golden chance to threaten a third European Tour title.

Bernardus course guide

Course Bernardus Golf, Cromvoirt, Netherlands
Prize money €1m (€149,920 to the winner)
Length 7,425 yards
Par 72
Field 144

When to bet By 6am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 12.30pm on Thursday

Time difference The Netherlands is one hour ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - BMW PGA Championship 1 B Horschel (28-1), T2 K Aphibarnrat (200-1), J Donaldson (175-1), L Canter (250-1), 5 C Bezuidenhout (33-1), T6 J Rose (33-1), A Johnston (110-1), F Laporta (250-1)

Course type Heathland

Course overview Bernardus Golf, designed by Kyle Phillips in 2016 and opened in 2018, is making its European Tour debut. The fairways are based on an ancient sandy plain. Heather was transplanted between the trees which are dotted around the fairly open track. Water comes into play on several holes, most notably on a front nine featuring two lakes. Contoured greens are heavily guarded by large bunkers, but the lack of significant rough and relatively slow putting surfaces makes for a straightforward challenge. The four par-fives - the fourth, seventh, 12th and 18th - are all great birdie chances for professionals

Story of 2019 Sergio Garcia beat Nicolai Hojgaard by a shot at The International in Amsterdam. The 2020 edition was cancelled due to coronavirus

Weather forecast Cloudy and calm for the first three days, with temperatures around 19C. Slightly warmer and slightly breezier for Sunday

Type of player suited to the challenge Generous fairways, light rough and slow greens should see attacking powerhouses in possession of hot putters take over at this new venue

Key attribute Power

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