Steve Palmer's Dunhill Links Championship predictions, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Dunhill Links Championship at St Andrews on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf from midday on Thursday

Best bets

Tyrrell Hatton
4pts each-way 16-1 Betfred, Betfair, Paddy Power
Tommy Fleetwood
3pts each-way 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power
Tom Lewis
1.5pts each-way 90-1 bet365
Matthew Jordan
1pt each-way 125-1 bet365

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The Open Championship was staged at St Andrews in July, when Cameron Smith ended up with the Claret Jug, and the man he left heartbroken will return to the scene of that anguish this week.

Rory McIlroy had the Open at his mercy going into the final round but was denied by the brilliance of Smith and the Northern Irishman is seeking to bury those demons in the Dunhill Links Championship.

McIlroy has never won at St Andrews, but has come close in both the Open and the Dunhill. A best-price 9-2 does not seem to offer much in the way of value to punters, especially given the unsettled weather forecast, with gusts of up to 40 miles per hour expected on Friday.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Tyrrell Hatton 16-1

Perennial Dunhill Links contender Tyrrell Hatton has doubtless turned up at this edition carrying plenty of desire for the trophy – he is yet to lift one this year – and the former world number five can get off the mark for 2022 at St Andrews.

Hatton has slipped down to world number 27 since winning the Abu Dhabi Championship last year, but he has not been doing much wrong, finishing second three times. He has won at least once in each of the previous three years, so will be keen to keep that streak going with a victory before Christmas. There is no better opportunity than the Dunhill.

Hatton won the 2016 Dunhill by four shots for a DP World Tour breakthrough, then successfully defended by a three-shot margin in 2017. The Buckinghamshire boy was a total of 47 under par for those two events and came agonisingly close to completing the hat-trick in 2018, losing by a shot after a poor Sunday.

A tie for 15th in 2019 was followed by second place last year. There was no Dunhill in 2020, so Hatton has posted a top-two finish in four of the last five Dunhills.

Given the ugly forecast for Friday, Hatton's determination should count for plenty. A six-hour round in terrible weather with amateur partners will test the patience of many pros, but Hatton knows he has the chance to become a St Andrews legend by winning on Sunday.

Nobody has ever won three times at St Andrews – in the Open or the Dunhill – and that should provide strong motivation. He was 11th in the Open in July and an encouraging eighth in the Italian Open last time out.

Next best bet

Tommy Fleetwood 20-1

Another Englishman who plays St Andrews superbly is Tommy Fleetwood. Five of the last eight Dunhills have been won by an Englishman and there seems every chance of that statistic being bolstered on Sunday.

Fleetwood took time off after finishing fourth at St Andrews in July – his mother died and he wanted to take a break from golf – and his return at Wentworth for the BMW PGA Championship was understandably inconsistent as he claimed the first-round lead before dropping away.

It is reasonable to expect Fleetwood to be in more of a groove in the Dunhill, where he was fifth on his debut in 2011, fifth again in 2013, second in 2014, second in 2018, fifth in 2019 and seventh last year. Ten Dunhill appearances have yielded five top-fives, eight top-20s, and no missed cuts.

The forecast for tough weather only helps Fleetwood and, like Hatton, he has arrived at the Home of Golf eager to end a winning drought.

Other selections

Tom Lewis 90-1

Matthew Jordan 125-1

Complete a four-pronged attack of English raiders with Tom Lewis and Matthew Jordan. Lewis is a links master, who made his name as an amateur starring on links terrain, winning the St Andrews Links Trophy on the Old Course in 2011. That year he led the Open after round one, eventually finishing 30th, further underlining his links comfort.

Lewis finished one shot shy of the Dunhill Links playoff in 2013, closing with a 64 to finish third, then he was tenth in 2018 and fifth in 2019. Recent signs have been encouraging, particularly with laserlike irons, and this class act can threaten again.

Lewis was 13th in the Czech Masters at the end of August, following up with 12th spot in the Made In HimmerLand and 16th in the Italian Open. He went well for a long way in the French Open, before a couple of water visits on Sunday. Expect a more sustained title challenge in the Dunhill.

Jordan, a Wirral lad who has always been a member of Hoylake and is a links natural, won the St Andrews Links Trophy on the Old Course in 2017. He won the Lytham Trophy in 2018 by nine shots, then carried that links form into the professional ranks in 2019, finishing 15th in the British Masters and fifth in the Dunhill Links.

Jordan qualified for the Open this year at St Annes Old Links and the Dunhill assignment is made for his talents. The 26-year-old followed fourth place in the Made In HimmerLand earlier this month with 23rd spot in the BMW PGA.

Players to note

Shane Lowry
The BMW PGA hero has a fine Dunhill record and will not be frightened by the forecast breeze, but bookmakers are being stingy with their prices about the top three in the betting.

Victor Perez
The 2019 Dunhill champion contended in the French Open last week until a triple-bogey at the easy sixth hole. He could bounce back from that horror at a happy hunting ground.

Joakim Lagergren
The Swede has an incredible Dunhill record, seemingly finding a way to contend no matter what form he arrives in, so the outsider is definitely worth considering again.

Richie Ramsay
A missed cut on the mark was a disappointment for the Scot in France last week, but he won the Cazoo Classic on a links in July and has a decent Dunhill record.

Dunhill courses guide

Courses The Old Course at St Andrews; Kingsbarns, Fife; and Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland
Prize money $5m ($833,500 to the winner)
Length The Old Course at St Andrews 7,318 yards; Carnoustie 7,394 yards; Kingsbarns 7,227 yards
Par All 72
Field 168 The cut Top 60 and ties qualify for round four
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Rory McIlroy (2), Matt Fitzpatrick (10), Billy Horschel (15), Shane Lowry (20), Tyrrell Hatton (27)
Course records– 72 holes of Dunhill Links Championship 264 Tyrrell Hatton (2017) 18 holes– St Andrews 61 Ross Fisher (2017); Carnoustie 63 Tommy Fleetwood (2017); Kingsbarns 60 Branden Grace (2012), Peter Uihlein (2013)

Course winners taking part Padraig Harrington (twice), Stephen Gallacher, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace, David Howell, Oliver Wilson, Thorbjorn Olesen, Tyrrell Hatton (twice), Lucas Bjerregaard, Victor Perez, Danny Willett

When to bet By 9am on Thursday

When to watch Sky Sports Golf from 12pm on Thursday

Last week – French Open 1 G Migliozzi (80-1), 2 R Hojgaard (30-1), T3 P Barjon (150-1), G Coetzee (80-1), T Pieters (16-1), 6 J Donaldson (110-1), 7 J Smith (22-1), T8 R MacIntyre (20-1), Y Paul (80-1), J Winther (125-1)

Course type Links

Course overview This Pro-Am features two rounds at St Andrews and one each at Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. The competitors will play a round at each of the three links before a cut is made and the leaders will then battle it out on Sunday at St Andrews. The host course, with its generous fairways and a few par fours which can be reached off the tee, is easy if the breeze is light but St Andrews can be much tougher in strong winds. The par-four 17th Road Hole is the toughest assignment on the track. Carnoustie is by far the most difficult course. Carnoustie's closing four holes (three long par-fours and a 247-yard par-three) have destroyed many scorecards. Kingsbarns is the shortest venue and the only one with four par-fives, so big hitters have an opportunity to make hay there. All three tracks are set up much easier than usual to give the amateurs a chance, so scoring is considerably lower in the Links Championship than the St Andrews and Carnoustie Opens. Cameron Smith won the latest Open at St Andrews in July

Story of last year Danny Willett fended off Tyrrell Hatton and Joakim Lagergren to triumph by two shots

Weather forecast A calm but chilly Thursday is expected to be followed by heavy rain and moderate breezes on Friday, before a dry, breezy weekend. Temperatures around 12C all week

Type of player suited to the challenge Those with banks of links experience from the British and Irish amateur scene, the Open and this event (which was first staged in 2001) will be best prepared. Links masters possess a range of shots to handle the quirky terrain. A sound temperament is required to deal with the amateur element, with rounds taking six hours. Avoiding Carnoustie on Friday should be beneficial. A Carnoustie (Thursday), Kingsbarns (Friday), St Andrews (Saturday) draw may be the best.

Key attribute Touch

Spotlight insight There have been 20 editions of the Dunhill Links and 17 of them have been won by players from the British Isles or Scandinavia

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