Steve Palmer's Dubai Desert Classic final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 8.30am Sunday

Best bets

Paul Casey to win Dubai Desert Classic
3pts 10-11 general

Paul Casey (10-11) and Jon Rahm (100-30, Farmers Insurance Open) double
2pts Betfair, Power

Story so far

Paul Casey carded a bogey-free 64 to claim pole position going into Sunday of the Dubai Desert Classic and the Englishman is odds-on across the board for victory.

Casey, who mentioned the second-round 64 of Tyrrell Hatton when interviewed in the early stages of his Saturday sizzler, matched the score by finishing with a birdie at the 17th and an eagle at the 18th. That left the 14-time European Tour champion at 15 under par.

Casey, a 22-1 chance ante-post, has shortened to a best-price 10-11 with 18 holes to play. Robert MacIntyre, the 2019 Rookie of the Year, is alone in second place. MacIntyre won the Cyprus Showdown in November to get off the mark on the European Tour.

Hatton, despite his Friday efforts, is tailed off in a share of 22nd place, while Tommy Fleetwood, tied for tenth place and eight shots adrift, also seems out of the running. Collin Morikawa is 69th of the 71 weekend qualifiers.

Leaderboard
-15 Paul Casey
-14 Robert MacIntyre
-13 Brandon Stone
-10 Laurie Canter, Sergio Garcia
-9 Kalle Samooja

Best prices
10-11 P Casey, 21-10 R MacIntyre, 7 B Stone, 20 S Garcia, 33 L Canter, 100 bar

Final-round preview

There has been a cheerfulness and swagger about Paul Casey all week in Dubai and the buzzing 43-year-old looks set to end it with the broadest smile of all.

There were two main reasons for leaving Casey out of the pre-tournament staking plan - he had a long journey from California to deal with, having competed in The American Express last week, and he had not competed at the Emirates Club since 2014.

There has been not a shred of evidence of mental fatigue though - Casey has bounced his way through any jet lag - and he showed in round three that he has quickly got to grips with a track he used to play well in the distant past.

Positivity is oozing from the pores of Casey, who played in the last Ryder Cup and has his sights set on retaining his place in the European team. Casey was the man chosen to partner Tyrrell Hatton through his Ryder Cup debut, so may even have taken inspiration from events in Abu Dhabi last week. The Casey-Hatton pairing could be treading the boards again against the United States.

Of course, it is not just the Ryder Cup carrot motivating Casey - he is chasing a 15th European Tour victory - and the former world No. 3 has always been extremely dangerous on his home circuit.

Casey has twice won the Abu Dhabi Championship and further Gulf glory appears to be coming his way. Eighth place in The American Express was a tidy warm-up spin for this week and his tee-to-green control should stand him in great stead for a breezy final round.

Casey dwarfs Robert MacIntyre in terms of experience and Tour success. MacIntyre is yet to win a proper 72-hole strokeplay event - the Cyprus Showdown had a quirky format - and the Scot seems likely to be much the more nervous of the duo in the final twoball.

MacIntyre has quickly shown a liking for desert golf and clearly has plenty of ability, but he is still learning and is unfortunate to have come up against such a formidable opponent in a field lacking much in the way of star quality.

If MacIntyre overcomes his illustrious opponent, it will be a significant feather in his cap and a sign that he is set to become one of Europe's best, but this chance may have come a little too early. MacIntyre and Sergio Garcia, who should enjoy the test of the Sunday breeze, seem set to provide the biggest challenge to Casey, but the frontrunner has the tools to get the job done and bolster an already impressive European Tour CV.

Plenty of punters will be tempted by a win double of Casey and Jon Rahm, who finished round two of the Farmers Insurance Open in impressive fashion and can be expected to set up a winning chance at Torrey Pines. Rahm tees off at 5.50pm UK and Ireland time in round three of the Farmers.

Casey and MacIntyre are scheduled to start at 8.50am UK time Sunday.

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