Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Golf, 6.30am Sunday

Best bets

Shane Lowry without Rory McIlroy
2pts each-way 7-1 Betfair, Power

Dean Burmester without Rory McIlroy
1pt each-way 50-1 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Rory McIlroy regained top spot on the DP World Tour Championship leaderboard, gaining revenge on the Earth Course's 18th hole with a last-gasp birdie, edging one shot ahead with a round to go.

McIlroy carded a double-bogey seven at the 18th hole in round two to surrender the lead - finding water with his third shot - but he played the hole well in round three to assert his authority on his European Tour rivals.

McIlroy was 6-1 ante-post for DP World Tour Championship glory, but is odds-on across the board with 18 holes to play. Sam Horsfield is alone in second place and will join McIlroy in the final twoball, teeing off at 8.05am UK and Ireland time on Sunday.

A sunny, hot denouement lies in store, with temperatures set to reach 32C and only gentle breezes to cool the competitors. Collin Morikawa remains in charge of the Race to Dubai. The American is tied for fifth place, three shots behind McIlroy, but is comfortably ahead of his RTD rivals.

Leaderboard
-14 Rory McIlroy
-13 Sam Horsfield
-12 Alexander Bjork, Robert MacIntyre
-11 Shane Lowry, John Catlin, JB Hansen, Collin Morikawa
-10 Martin Kaymer
-9 Dean Burmester, Johannes Veerman, Marcus Armitage

Best prices
5-6 R McIlroy, 7 S Horsfield, C Morikawa, 9 R MacIntyre, 12 S Lowry, 20 A Bjork, 25 JB Hansen, 28 J Catlin, 50 M Kaymer, 100 D Burmester, 150 bar

Final-round preview

The tournament sponsors could be getting their dream scenario at the Earth Course this week - the two most famous faces in the field parading silverware together.

Last year, Matt Fitzpatrick won the DP World Tour Championship while Lee Westwood lifted the Race to Dubai trophy. This time, Rory McIlroy is on course to complete a DP World Tour Championship hat-trick while Collin Morikawa becomes the first American Race to Dubai champion.

The prospect of McIlroy and Morikawa posing for pictures is an appealing one for both sponsors and punters. The pair were first and second in the DP World Tour Championship pre-tournament betting and bookmakers will be hoping someone else on the leaderboard upsets the apple cart.

McIlroy was Racing Post Sport's headline recommendation at 6-1, so hopes are high that the former world number one can continue his recent rise up the rankings and lead the field home. McIlroy was impressive in closing out the CJ Cup in Las Vegas last time out and more desert joy could be coming.

Sam Horsfield has won two low-grade events on the European Tour - both last summer - and the DP World Tour Championship would be by far the biggest title on his CV should he manage to beat McIlroy in the final twoball and claim the trophy. Horsfield may find the challenge too great at this stage of his career. McIlroy is on one of his favourite tracks and will expect to boss the final group.

If Morikawa is happy to protect his score to cement his RTD hopes - he carded 12 consecutive pars coming home in round three - then the biggest dangers to McIlroy's DPWTC hat-trick bid may turn out to be Shane Lowry and Dean Burmester.

Lowry, aside from messing up the eighth hole in round three, has been rock-solid this week, topping the greens-in-regulation statistics in both round one and round two.

Burmester loves the Earth Course and could have an explosive finish in him from a tie for tenth. The powerhouse's 69, 69, 69 start could be followed by something more spectacular.

Betfair and Paddy Power have a market without McIlroy. Lowry and Burmester are worth backing in that at 7-1 and 50-1. Each-way terms are a fifth the odds, first three.

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