Steve Palmer's DP World Tour Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf Main Event and Golf, 6.30am Sunday

Best bets

Rory McIlroy to win the DP World Tour Championship
2pts 9-2 general

Tommy Fleetwood top-five finish
2pts 13-10 bet365, Hills

Tommy Fleetwood win 7.30am twoball (1-2) and Rory McIlroy to win 7.50am twoball (4-7)
2pts double bet365, Betfair, Power

Story so far

There have been 13 previous editions of the DP World Tour Championship and six of them have been won by either Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick or Jon Rahm. It is a brave punter who bets against that statistic becoming seven from 14 on Sunday.

There are three course winners in this 50-man field - and each of the trio has won at the Earth Course twice before. McIlroy, Fitzpatrick and Rahm have all set up the chance to complete a DP World Tour Championship hat-trick.

McIlroy has overcome a slow start to the event to put himself in fourth place, three shots behind, with 18 holes to play. The world number one was only one under par through 33 holes of the tournament, but he has moved to 12 under through 54, clicking into top gear just in time to revive hopes of a FedEx Cup and Race to Dubai double.

Fitzpatrick found the greenside water hazard in two shots at the final hole of round three, but salvaged par to sit only one shot off the pace. Rahm leads the way on 15 under after a bogey-free 65 and is 23-20 favourite going into the denouement.

Fitzpatrick, 3-1 to win the DP World Tour Championship, is jostling with McIlroy for Race to Dubai glory. If Fitzpatrick wins the tournament, to win the RTD as well, he needs McIlroy to finish in a three-way tie for second place or worse. A top-seven finish will do for McIlroy if Fitzpatrick fails to win the tournament.

Leaderboard
-15 Jon Rahm
-14 Matt Fitzpatrick
-13 Alex Noren
-12 Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton
-10 Tommy Fleetwood, Adrian Meronk

Best prices
23-20 J Rahm, 3 M Fitzpatrick, 9-2 R McIlroy, 10 A Noren, 12 T Hatton, 40 T Fleetwood, 100 bar

Final-round preview

Beautifully poised. Has a golf tournament ever been more beautifully poised than this one with 18 holes to play?

The top three in the ante-post betting have set up a Sunday title tilt, while Rory McIlroy and Matt Fitzpatrick look set to provide a thrilling battle for the Race to Dubai. The football World Cup starts later in the day, but any sports fan worth their salt will be tuning into the golfing Middle East action prior to Qatar versus Ecuador.

Racing Post Sport's colours have been firmly on the McIlroy mast from the off, so it was a relief on Saturday to see the Northern Irishman hit his stride. The cream has risen to the top in the DP World Tour season finale - and the best of them all has put himself in position to strike.

McIlroy, 7-2 at the start of the week, has drifted to 9-2 with a round to go, and punters yet to get involved should be sniffing around those odds with interest. The driver - the most potent weapon in McIlroy's bag - badly misbehaved in round one. The tee-shots have slowly but surely improved, though, and Saturday's driving performance was absolutely majestic. Hitting it long and straight with the chief, McIlroy covered his final 14 holes in seven under par, stalking the leaders with menace.

Jon Rahm was far less secure with driver in hand in round three, the Spaniard admitting he squeezed every last drop from his score. He recovered from loose tee-shots with brilliant iron-play and putting.

Rahm obviously deserves favouritism with his nose in front, but he will definitely be eyeing the leaderboard with interest hoping that McIlroy does not make early inroads. McIlroy zoomed past Rahm over the weekend of the CJ Cup - the previous event in which they competed - and it is entirely feasible a similar scenario plays out in Dubai.

Fitzpatrick was unimpressive in round three and his scores have regressed each day, with rounds of 65, 67 and 70. As the Sheffield man weakens with the RTD finishing line looming, McIlroy appears to be galloping home, shaving three shots off his score each day (71, 68, 65).

Alex Noren is obviously no mug - and deserves respect - but defeating McIlroy, Rahm and Fitzpatrick in a Sunday shootout for the DP World Tour Championship would be a career highlight at the age of 40.

And Tyrrell Hatton is difficult to fancy after a truly miserable three-over-par Saturday back-nine. Hatton, swearing his way around the Earth Course and even loudly bemoaning the pin position at the 17th hole, does not seem in the right frame of mind to win this tournament. Rumours persist that he may be joining LIV Golf - and this would be an ugly way to cut ties with the DP World Tour.

With Fitzpatrick seemingly faltering, outright punters are advised to concentrate on McIlroy and Rahm. Rahm has not won a tournament this year which features other members of the elite, so the 9-2 about McIlroy seems more than fair. If Rahm is going to win an elite event this year, he is going to have to do it the hard way - repelling the best players in the field. If it gets tight, McIlroy will surely carry much more confidence about getting the job done.

Rahm has won the low-grade Mexico Open and Spanish Open this year, while McIlroy saw off Justin Thomas to win the Canadian Open, overcame a six-shot starting deficit on Scottie Scheffler to win the Tour Championship, then landed a high-class CJ Cup. McIlroy seems ready to deliver DP World Tour Championship and Race to Dubai glory on Sunday.

A place in the penultimate twoball with the amiable Noren seems ideal. Rahm and Fitzpatrick (teeing off 8am UK and Ireland time) can be a pair of tetchy characters when things are not going right and the atmosphere in that final group could get intense if early pressure comes from behind.

McIlroy first, Rahm second, Fitzpatrick third, Tommy Fleetwood fourth is the prediction, as Europe's finest put on a show in Dubai on a sunny, warm day with moderate breezes. The increase in wind favours the player who carried most form with the driver on Saturday.

A press-up on McIlroy outright, plus a wager on a Fleetwood top-five finish at 13-10, appeals as a Sunday tactic. McIlroy (v Noren) and Fleetwood (v Jorge Campillo) can comprise an appealing twoballs double which pays almost 11-8.

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