Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship predictions & free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth on the European Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Best bets

Shane Lowry
4pts each-way 16-1 Betfair, Hills, Power
Henrik Stenson
2pts each-way 45-1 Hills
Richard Bland
1.5pts each-way 70-1 bet365
Edoardo Molinari
1pt each-way 125-1 general

Viktor Hovland is hot favourite for the BMW PGA Championship after he closed with a 65 in the Tour Championship last week - the Norwegian was the fourth-best scorer at East Lake in the mega-bucks PGA Tour finale - but punters have to wonder how much the FedEx Cup playoffs have taken out of the youngster.

Hovland and others in the Wentworth line-up - such as American raider Billy Horschel - have had a hectic recent schedule Stateside competing under huge pressure. The same can be said of Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Aaron Rai and Matthias Schwab, who have just done three weeks on the spin in the Korn Ferry Tour Finals.

Hovland has teed up at Wentworth once before, finishing 11th in 2019, and he can be resisted at the odds. Tyrrell Hatton, the defending champion, also seems on the short side, having struggled to find top gear since winning the Abu Dhabi Championship in his first event of the year. Hatton has dropped from fifth place in the world rankings to 17th, and he has missed three of his last four cuts.

Tommy Fleetwood, who went up against two European Tour maidens down the stretch in the Italian Open on Sunday and hit a horror shot at the 16th hole which cost him dear, is winless since the 2019 Nedbank Challenge and seems to have lost some confidence. His compatriot Matthew Fitzpatrick has gone off the boil. A share of 57th place in the 66-runner Memphis WGC has been followed by missed cuts in The Northern Trust and the Italian Open.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Shane Lowry 16-1

The 2019 Open champion can land an overdue BMW PGA Championship victory this week at a course he relishes - ever-popular Irishman Shane Lowry looks an outstanding investment for Wentworth glory.

Lowry has finished in the top 15 at Wentworth in eight of his last ten appearances. He was fourth in 2011, runner-up in 2014, sixth in 2015 and sixth in 2017. Last year, despite arriving in Surrey having missed three of his last four cuts and in the process of bedding in some new equipment, the pride of County Offaly still managed to finish 13th.

This year, from the Players Championship onwards, Lowry has been impressive. He was eighth at Sawgrass, ninth in the RBC Heritage, fourth in the US PGA Championship, sixth in the Memorial and 12th in the Open, and he also produced some solid golf through the first two legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

Failing to qualify for East Lake was a blessing in disguise - it meant he was in Dublin for the birth of his second child last week. Little Ivy has safely joined the Lowry clan and big Shane can approach the BMW PGA in high spirits.

Qualifying for a Ryder Cup debut - getting a spot on the European team of his compatriot Padraig Harrington - has been Lowry's main target all season. Wentworth presents the opportunity for Lowry to cement his place at Whistling Straits. He knows he can handle Wentworth - the expected firm, fast conditions just strengthen the cause of Lowry and his magic hands - and a super September seems in store for the genial 34-year-old.

Next best bet

Henrik Stenson 45-1

The potential for a sixth Ryder Cup cap has provided a considerable carrot for Henrik Stenson and he has raised his game several levels over the last month. The 45-year-old, who knows he will not get many more chances to compete in the famous shootout against the United States, promised Harrington he would play four consecutive European Tour events in a bid to earn a spot on Team Europe.

The first three of those tournaments have gone well - Stenson was fourth in the Czech Masters, third in the European Masters and 15th in the Italian Open - and the Swede may be set to end up as one of three vastly experienced European wildcards alongside Sergio Garcia and Ian Poulter.

Stenson probably needs a prominent showing in the BMW PGA to convince Harrington that he should be ahead of Justin Rose, Bernd Wiesberger and others in the pecking order, and Stenson's recruitment of top caddie Gareth Lord should aid the chances of success.

Lordy, as he is known, was Stenson's caddie when he became Open champion in 2016. Their reunion could easily spark a return of vintage Stenson. Hotshot Henrik won his first two European Tour titles at English parkland tracks - Woburn and The Belfry - and Wentworth sets up well for him. The veteran has not been a regular starter in the BMW PGA, but he was eighth in 2007, seventh in 2014, third in 2017 and 17th on his last visit (2019).

Other selections

Richard Bland 70-1

Edoardo Molinari 125-1

One bookmaker is offering ten each-way places for the BMW PGA - and eight places are freely available - and there is great scope for two outsiders to enter the equation. Richard Bland and Edoardo Molinari are definitely hitting their ball well enough to feature on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.

Bland got a massive monkey off his back in the British Masters in May - a maiden European Tour triumph at the age of 48 - and the new King of the Belfry can do plenty of damage down the road at Wentworth this week.

Bland followed his Belfry success with third spot in the Made In Himmerland, then co-led the US Open at the halfway stage - a stunning effort at Torrey Pines. He returned to Europe with fourth place in the Irish Open, 15th in the Scottish Open and third in the Cazoo Classic, then improved his score each day on his way to fifth place in the Italian Open last Sunday.

The last time Bland got a BMW PGA tee-time he had just missed five cuts in a row, and eight of his last nine. He was world number 372, yet still managed a creditable share of 35th at Wentworth. That was his third-best finish of the whole season. A tie for 19th in 2013 was his second-best finish of that campaign. The course sets up well for a player who is accurate off the tee and churns out greens in regulation.

Molinari could follow his brother Francesco on to the Wentworth honours board. Edoardo has been producing career-best ball-striking in the last few months. The former US Amateur champion, World Cup and Ryder Cup winner, and three-time European Tour champion has been swinging his club like a dream at the age of 40.

Putting has been a bugbear, but his stroke looked better in the final round of the Italian Open last Sunday. He was 14th in the putting stats on Sunday, went bogey-free on the back-nine and finished the event tied for fifth alongside Bland. Molinari was eighth behind Bland in the British Masters, second in the European Open in June and 18th in the Scottish Open in July.

Players to note

Alexander Noren
The 2017 champion, third on his title defence, has been bright on the PGA Tour lately. Fourth place in the Rocket Mortgage Classic was followed by fourth in The Northern Trust and ninth in the BMW Championship. Punters wanting five selections should make a beeline for the Swede.

Rasmus Hojgaard
Three European Tour victories in a row for the Hojgaard brothers seems entirely feasible. Both are playing this week - and 50-1 chance Rasmus probably has the best chance.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Third place in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship on Sunday clinched a PGA Tour card for the South African. He was third in the 2019 BMW PGA Championship and is well suited to the layout.

Aaron Rai
The accurate Wolverhampton man secured a PGA Tour card through the Korn Ferry Tour Finals. He has returned to Wentworth full of joy, but probably lacking in energy.

Matthias Schwab
Having impressed on the Stateside college scene, the Austrian will base himself in America having earned a PGA Tour card last Sunday. Wentworth suits if he can overcome his jet lag.

Branden Grace
The South African, who won the Puerto Rico Open at the end of February, has been inconsistent since but impressive in short bursts. The downgrade to Europe makes him a serious runner.

Wentworth course guide

Course West Course, Wentworth Club, Virginia Water, Surrey
Prize money $8m ($1,123,300 to the winner)
Length 7,267 yards
Par 72
Field 144
Course records- 72 holes 267 Byeong Hun An (2015) 18 holes 62 Robert Karlsson (2010), Thomas Bjorn (2014), Alex Noren (2017)

Course winners (strokeplay) taking part David Howell, Miguel Angel Jimenez, Luke Donald (twice), Chris Wood, Alex Noren, Francesco Molinari, Danny Willett, Tyrrell Hatton

When to bet By 6.40am on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Golf from 8.30am on Thursday

Last week - Italian Open 1 N Hojgaard (n/a) 2 T Fleetwood (16-1), A Meronk (100-1), 4 F Laporta (275-1), T5 R Bland (60-1), M Kawamura (66-1), E Molinari (150-1)

Course type Parkland

Course overview The legendary Harry Colt-designed West Course at Wentworth has been the host venue for the PGA Championship since 1984 and also staged the World Match Play from 1964 to 2007. In 2019, the event moved from its usual May slot to a mid-September position in the schedule, and last year, due to the coronavirus suspension, it was a month even later in the calendar. The course has been extensively remodelled over recent years (a project started in 2005) by long-time Wentworth member and seven-times Match Play champion Ernie Els. Prior to the 2017 edition, every green was stripped of its turf and re-seeded with creeping bentgrass. Four of the greens – the eighth, 11th, 14th and 16th – were completely reshaped. Five other greens were partially rebuilt, while all the putting surfaces have had a sub-air system installed to make them firmer and faster. The dancefloors are purer than ever. Tall trees line the fairways, many of which are doglegs, so it is a demanding driving course. The layout closes with two par-fives – the 610-yard 17th and the 523-yard 18th, a classic risk-reward hole featuring a greenside water hazard

Story of last year Tyrrell Hatton put on a scrambling masterclass on his way to a comfortable four-shot victory over Victor Perez

Weather forecast Cloudy, windless skies throughout, with temperatures between 16 and 22C

Type of player suited to the challenge Strong driving is demanded to find the tree-lined fairways. Long-game accuracy combined with short-game wizardry is typically the ticket to success at Wentworth

Key attribute Accuracy

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