Steve Palmer's BMW PGA Championship final-round preview, best bets, free tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 9am Sunday

Best bets

Aaron Rai to win twoball
3pts 10-11 Betfair, BoyleSports

Ross Fisher to win twoball
2pts 10-11 bet365, BoyleSports

Story so far

Francesco Laporta leads the BMW PGA Championship by a shot going into the final round at Wentworth. The Italian, seeking a European Tour breakthrough and a 250-1 chance ante-post, has a slender advantage over fellow maiden Laurie Canter.

The more fancied runners are slightly off the pace, resulting in a fascinating BMW PGA outright market with 18 holes to play in cloudy Surrey. Bookmakers are struggling to identify a market leader and there are 6-1 co-favourites of five.

Laporta and Canter are two of the quintet, but Adam Scott, Billy Horschel and Christiaan Bezuidenhout are on the same mark. Scott, Horschel and Bezuidenhout are all two shots behind Laporta going into the denouement.

The European Ryder Cup qualification race ends after the BMW PGA - and there are still many different permutations with regards who will make it on to Padraig Harrington's team to face the United States later this month.

Shane Lowry and Bernd Wiesberger, jostling with each other for automatic qualification, are tied on 11 under par. Both the Irishman and the Austrian are only three shots behind Laporta and will have eyes on both the BMW title and a ticket to the Ryder Cup.

Leaderboard
-14 Francesco Laporta
-13 Laurie Canter
-12 Jamie Donaldson, Adam Scott, Billy Horschel, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-11 Shane Lowry, Bernd Wiesberger, Sean Crocker
-10 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Nicolai Hojgaard, Joakim Lagergren, Justin Walters
-9 Justin Rose, Thomas Pieters, Tommy Fleetwood, Matthias Schwab, Shubhankar Sharma, Andrew Johnston, Aaron Rai

Best prices
6 A Scott, B Horschel, L Canter, F Laporta, C Bezuidenhout, 10 S Lowry, 14 J Donaldson, 16 B Wiesberger, 22 S Crocker, 50 K Aphibarnrat, N Hojgaard, T Fleetwood, J Rose, 100 bar

Final-round preview

The eyecatching outright market highlights how wide open the BMW PGA Championship is going into Sunday - 20 players are within five shots of a nervous frontrunner and all will still feel well in the hunt for the bumper first prize.

Adam Scott, a Major champion who almost won a PGA Tour event a month ago, arguably deserves slight favouritism. Anyone who saw the Aussie miss a short putt for victory in that Wyndham Championship, though, will find the 41-year-old difficult to trust. Getting over the line on the greens is often an issue.

Billy Horschel, looking to prove a point to American Ryder Cup captain Steve Stricker, must also be respected. If Brooks Koepka, labouring with a wrist problem since the Tour Championship, fails to pass a fitness test, then another wildcard pick will be needed for the States. Horschel, the WGC-Match Play champion, would be a lively contender, and victory at Wentworth could clinch the vote.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout, ideally suited to the modern Wentworth and third on his debut in 2019, closed with a 64 in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship last Sunday to finish third and secure a PGA Tour card.

Possible mental fatigue after a month of competition Stateside was the only negative against the South African's name prior to the BMW.
Justin Rose and Thomas Pieters could come from deep on the board to stake claims for a Ryder Cup wildcard, while last week's Italian Open champion Nicolai Hojgaard is also close enough if good enough for back-to-back triumphs.

Predicting the winner of the BMW PGA from here is challenging, but pre-tournament headline selection Shane Lowry still appears to have a golden opportunity. Lowry was generally superb from tee to green in round three, finishing second in the greens-in-regulation statistics, but did not hole his fair share. A warming of the putter on Sunday should see Lowry set up a chance down the stretch, given he is swinging so well and has proved himself adept at handling the West Course at Wentworth.

Maiden duo, Francesco Laporta and Laurie Canter, seem likely to comprise a jittery final twoball (1.15pm). Winning your first Tour title in a Rolex Series event with huge crowds following you all the way to a massive cheque is a daunting task.

If the front two tread water, then Lowry, Bezuidenhout, Horschel and Scott are arguably the pursuers most likely to take advantage. Lowry at 10-1 seems generous for anyone getting involved in the outright market at this stage.

Final-round twoballs punters are pointed towards Aaron Rai (12.15pm) and Ross Fisher (10.50am). Rai, one of the most accurate operators on the circuit, could boss his twoball against Kiradech Aphibarnrat. The chunky Thai has faded away after setting the early pace, making only one birdie in a miserable Saturday 74. Rai found his A-game in a round-three 67 and seems much the more likely to gallop to the line.

Fisher, who grew up playing at Wentworth and is ultra-comfortable at the venue, can be preferred to erratic Finn Tapio Pulkkanen.

A cloudy, calm day with temperatures around 20C is forecast.

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