Steve Palmer's Australian Open predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Australian Open at Victoria GC and Kingston Heath on the DP World Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1am on Wednesday night

Best bets

Cameron Davis
4pts each-way 12-1 Betfair, Power

Harrison Endycott
1.5pts each-way 66-1 Betfred

Hayden Hopewell
1pt each-way 150-1general

Jack Thompson
1pt each-way 150-1 general

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Cameron Smith admitted to reporters in Victoria this week that he was nursing a headache after enthusiastic Australian PGA Championship victory celebrations, but the Queenslander was upbeat about tackling the Melbourne sandbelt in the Australian Open.

Smith, 7-2 for the Aussie PGA, is a general 5-2 for the Australian Open. Favourite backers who succeeded last week will be sorely tempted to play up their winnings, but Sunday's home-state glory may not be followed by a first Oz Open title.

A windy Thursday afternoon has the potential to derail anyone in the field - and Smith has been drawn late that day. He has some course form, leading at Victoria GC in the strokeplay section of the 2011 Australian Amateur and leading at Kingston Heath after round one of the 2013 Open qualifier there, but is less comfortable on these layouts than he was at a calm Royal Queensland last week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Cameron Davis 12-1

The most difficult opponent for Cameron Smith to overcome this week may be a man who has already got his name on the Australian Open trophy. Smith will hope to do so at some stage, but Cameron Davis is proudly in the history books, having closed with a spectacular 64 to triumph in the 2017 edition.

Davis followed that success with a Korn Ferry Tour title in 2018, then a PGA Tour breakthrough came for the sweet-swinging Sydneysider last year in the Rocket Mortgage Classic. This class act has built on a fine amateur career and has the world at his feet at the age of 27.

Winning the 2014 Victoria Amateur Championship at Victoria Golf Club showed his liking for the venue which will stage three of the four rounds this week. Davis won the Australian Amateur the following year and always looked destined for greatness.

A Presidents Cup debut in September added an extra layer of confidence. He won two points from five matches against a rampant USA side and was unfortunate to run into a buzzing Jordan Spieth in the singles as the Texan chased five points from five matches.

Davis knows he belongs at the highest level and his build-up to the Aussie Open has been sensible. After finishing 13th in the CJ Cup, he took a month off, spending time in his homeland catching up with old friends in Sydney he had not seen for ages. He made a rusty start in the PGA last week, but fired rounds of 66 and 68 over the weekend to finish seventh.

Nobody outscored Davis over the final 36 holes of the PGA and with a windier forecast this week, his tee-to-green quality will count for more.

Next best bet

Harrison Endycott 66-1

Another PGA Tour star has jetted home for action. Davis and Harrison Endycott are nicely relaxed for their national Open - they know they will be competing on the PGA Tour next year and anything gained in Victoria this week is merely a bonus.

Endycott won a Korn Ferry Tour title in May, romping to a five-shot triumph, and will be pleased with the way he has started his PGA Tour career. A 12th-place finish in the Fortinet Championship was followed by tenth spot in the Bermuda Championship.

Like Davis, Endycott made a sluggish start in the PGA, perhaps dealing with some jetlag after competing in the RSM Classic the previous week. An opening 73 was followed by rounds of 69, 69 and 68 for 18th place. He was runner-up in the 2018 Vic Open and is back in the same state this week looking extremely dangerous.

Other selections

Jack Thompson 150-1

Hayden Hopewell 150-1

Complete a four-pronged staking plan with two Aussie youngsters on offer at juicy odds. Hayden Hopewell, who turned 21 at the weekend, won on the Australasian Tour in 2020, then again in February this year. He was 15th in the Vic Open and has rapidly proved himself on his home circuit.

Wind is expected in Melbourne this week and Hopewell will relish that having grown up in Fremantle, where breeze is a way of life. His nickname is Houdini - because of his ability to conjure miraculous recovery shots - and this week's assignment could bring out the best in him.

Jack Thompson, like Hopewell, got four rounds in the Aussie PGA without threatening the leaders. Both have been impressing in regulation Oz Tour events and can step up a gear this week.

Thompson won the Gippsland Super 6 in Victoria last year, excelling on a windy final day, and he was fifth in the Victorian PGA Championship earlier this month. This solid all-rounder appears to have a bright future at the age of 24.

Players to note

Min Woo Lee
The forecast for breeze will not frighten Perth lad Min Woo, who excels in such conditions, and fourth place in the PGA on Sunday was another solid effort. However, this is his fourth consecutive week of action - South Africa to Dubai to Queensland - and energy levels may well be dipping.

Elvis Smylie
A tie for 12th in the PGA on Sunday was a source of great encouragement for the hugely promising Aussie left-hander. He could get his name on the leaderboard at a big price again this week.

Australian Open courses guide

Courses Victoria Golf Club and Kingston Heath Golf Club, Melbourne, Australia
Prize money A$1.7m (A$283,220 to the winner)
Length Victoria 6,811 yards, Kingston Heath 7,269 yards
Par Victoria 70, Kingston Heath 72
Field 156 The cuts Top 60 and ties qualify for round three; top 35 and ties qualify for round four
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Cameron Smith (3), Ryan Fox (27), Adam Scott (36), Adrian Meronk (56), Lucas Herbert (57)
Course records- 72 holes Victoria 269 Ian Poulter; Kingston Heath 271 Peter Senior, Adam Scott

Course winners taking part Peter Fowler (Kingston Heath, 1983 Australian Open), Stephen Allan (Victoria, 2002 Australian Open), Matthew Stieger (Victoria, 2011 Australian Amateur), Adam Scott (Kingston Heath, 2012 Australian Masters)

When to bet By 8pm on Wednesday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 1am on Wednesday night

Time difference Melbourne is 11 hours ahead of the UK and Ireland

Last week - Australian PGA Championship 1 C Smith (7-2), T2 R Hisatsune (66-1), J Scrivener (55-1), T4 M W Lee (14-1), J Parry (125-1), 6 D Micheluzzi (100-1)

Course type Sandbelt

Course overview Victoria and Kingston Heath are two famous tracks on the Melbourne sandbelt. Both courses will be used over the first two rounds, with the final two rounds played exclusively at Victoria. The Women's Australian Open will be taking place at the same time at the same venues. Victoria staged the Victorian Open from 1994 to 1999 and the Australian PGA Championship in 1999. The 2002 edition is the only Australian Open played at Victoria in the last 40 years - won by Stephen Allan. The first round of that tournament was abandoned because the greens were unplayably fast. The Australian Masters was at Victoria in 2010 and 2011, as well as the 2011 Australian Amateur. Kingston Heath was Australian Open host in 1995 and 2000. It staged the Australian Masters in 2009 and 2012, and the World Cup in 2016. It has also been a regular venue for Open Championship International Final Qualifying. As with all tracks on the sandbelt, the courses are like a hybrid between parkland and links golf, with fast-running turf, tight-cut greenside bunkering, and undulating, firm greens

Story of 2019 Matt Jones won the last Australian Open - three years ago at The Australian, Sydney

Weather forecast A cool, cloudy start is expected, with the strongest winds of the week on Thursday afternoon, so tee-times could be important. Sunny with moderate breezes for the rest of the week

Type of player suited to the challenge Positional play off the tee is more important than power, setting up the right angle of attack to well guarded greens, and short-game class is crucial on and around fast, undulating dancefloors

Key attribute Touch/putting

Spotlight insight Four of the last seven Australian Opens have been won by overseas raiders

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