Arnold Palmer Invitational: Steve Palmer's free golf tips & course guide

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2pm Thursday

Best bets

Sungjae Im
3pts each-way 25-1 general
Back this tip with Paddy Power
Abraham Ancer
2pts each-way 66-1 SkyBet
Back this tip with Paddy Power
Henrik Stenson
2pts each-way 40-1 Betfred, Betway, Coral
Back this tip with CoralRobby Shelton
1pt each-way 300-1Betfred
Back this tip with bet365

Rory McIlroy is a general 5-1 for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and plenty of each-way punters will be sniffing around the odds thinking they can get themselves a 'free' win bet. The Northern Irishman has finished in the top five in his last six events, boasting form figures of 3-1-4-3-5-5, and he won at Bay Hill two years ago.

The course set-up was easier for McIlroy in 2018, though, and this year looks set to be a less suitable grind, so there is a fair chance the favourite will slip outside the top five for the first time since the Dunhill Links Championship.

Tommy Fleetwood is next in the betting after his third-place effort in the Honda Classic on Sunday. The agony of that near-miss though – he needed a birdie at the par-five 18th to force a playoff and made bogey after a perfect drive – may take time to get over. He contended for four rounds on a tough course, before blowing it on the final hole, so could be lacking the mental energy to properly compete on another water-strewn layout this week.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Sungjae Im 25-1

The PGA Tour's latest champion could deliver back-to-back triumphs in the Sunshine State – Sungjae Im can follow his Honda Classic success by winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Im has become a member of the golfing elite, consistently appearing on leaderboards, following his 2019 Rookie of the Year honour with a magnificent Presidents Cup debut. It looked like the Sanderson Farms Championship in September was going to be his PGA Tour breakthrough, but Sebastian Munoz birdied the 72nd hole before beating Im in a playoff.

The wait is finally over for Im after his Honda heroics and he can continue to flourish in Florida. Last year he finished third on his Bay Hill debut, despite being 88th in the world rankings, then he followed up with fourth spot in the Valspar Championship. The ball-striking masterclass he conjured at PGA National on Sunday means he is world number 25 and ready to bolster his strong record on this type of track.

Im is not the sort of character to go crazy with Honda celebrations and he scoffed at the suggestion of taking a week off in the post-round media conference. This cool, calm, collected 21-year-old – when asked about his revelry plans – said it would be “one of the happiest nights of my life” but that he might be “on his way to Orlando”. He is clearly hungry for further trophies and will prepare properly for Bay Hill.

When Im won the first of his two Korn Ferry Tour titles in 2018, he finished runner-up the following week, losing by just a shot. History suggests that the South Korean keeps his A-game when he finds it, so expect further fun in the Florida sun this week.

Next best bet

Abraham Ancer 66-1

One man smiling watching from afar as Im got the job done on Sunday was Abraham Ancer, who can take great inspiration from seeing the way his Presidents Cup pal handled himself down the stretch.

The Internationals Presidents Cup team was an extremely tight unit which bonded well before giving the United States a fright just before Christmas, and Ancer and Im combined to beat Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele in the Saturday fourballs.

Members of the Internationals side have been winning a lot this year – Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Adam Scott and Im – and it could be Ancer's turn of this week. The cocksure 29-year-old has the accuracy to handle Bay Hill and a fast-finishing 12th place in the WGC-Mexico Championship last time out instilled further self-belief. He was runner-up in The American Express in January and is clearly good enough to win on the PGA Tour.

Other selections

Henrik Stenson 40-1

Robby Shelton 300-1

Henrik Stenson won the Hero World Challenge at the end of last year, repelling Jon Rahm to come out on top in world-class company and the Swede can build on that confidence-boosting effort by contending again at Bay Hill.

The Arnold Palmer venue sets up superbly for Stenson, who lives in Orlando and knows it well, and he finished runner-up in 2015. He was controversially put on the clock in the final round and struggled for concentration, losing by a shot, then he was third the following year and fourth in 2018. This week the 2009 Sawgrass champion, seemingly recovered from the elbow issues which blighted 2019, could succeed at another dangerous Florida layout.

Complete a four-pronged attack with Robby Shelton, a top-class ball-striker who could be maturing into one of the best players on the PGA Tour. He won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour last May then opened his PGA Tour career with a 62 in the first round of The Greenbrier in September, going on to finish seventh.

Shelton was sixth at Mayakoba in November and 11th in the Honda Classic last week after four solid rounds. Bay Hill is a similar assignment to PGA National and a similar result could be coming. He got an invitation to the 2017 Arnold Palmer so has some course experience and is equipped to do better this time. He missed the cut three years ago when ranked outside the world's top 1,000, but he returns comfortably inside the top 200 and is good enough to upset the market-leaders.

Players to note

Kevin Kisner
The Carolinian is much more comfortable on the east coast than west and the former Sawgrass playoff loser could build on his 18th-place finish in the Mexico Championship by contending at Bay Hill, where he was 2017 runner-up.

Matthew Fitzpatrick
Runner-up last year, the accurate Sheffield man has a solid record at Bay Hill. He has been runner-up six times since his last victory.

Collin Morikawa
The Californian possesses the tee-to-green precision to stay out of serious trouble at Bay Hill. He is yet to miss a cut as a professional and another healthy cheque should be banked this week.

Xander Schauffele
The world number 12, like Fitzpatrick, is on a run of near-misses. The Bay Hill debutant is without a victory since the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions, but he must be respected.

Bay Hill course guide

Course Bay Hill Club and Lodge, Orlando, Florida
Prize money $9.3m ($1.638m to the winner)
Length 7,454 yards
Par 72
Field 120
Course records- 72 holes 264 Payne Stewart (1987) 18 holes 62 Andy Bean (1981), Greg Norman (1984), Adam Scott (2014)

Course winners taking part Robert Gamez, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh, Matt Every (twice), Jason Day, Marc Leishman, Rory McIlroy, Francesco Molinari

When to bet By 11.45am Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 2pm Thursday

Time difference Florida is five hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Honda Classic Honda Classic 1 S Im (33-1), 2 M Hughes (500-1), 3 T Fleetwood (12-1), T4 B An (40-1), D Berger (33-1), L Westwood (80-1), B Steele (125-1), T8 G Woodland (22-1), C Davis (150-1), R Henley (90-1)

Course overview Bay Hill has hosted a US Tour event every year since 1979 and this tournament has been played as the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2007. Palmer made significant changes to the track before 2010 so form before that is of little relevance, and he widened the fairways in 2015 resulting in lower scoring. Two of the par-threes (the 234-yard second and the 220-yard 17th) are tough, water is in play on several holes and there are lots of doglegs. The fifth (375-yard par-four), 13th (378-yard par-four) and 16th (501-yard par-five) are great birdie opportunities

Story of last year Francesco Molinari finished with a wet sail – a stunning Sunday 64 to charge past Matt Fitzpatrick and triumph by two shots

Weather forecast Hot and sunny for the first two days before a clear but cooler weekend, with moderate afternoon breezes throughout

Type of player suited to the challenge Palmer took the bite out of Bay Hill from 2015 to 2018, with the rough hacked away, and the average winning score was 16.25 under par. Last year, though, there was more length to the rough and the greens were quick, allowing Molinari and Fitzpatrick, two of the tidest players on the planet, to make merry. There is plenty of water to trouble the competitors and greenside run-off areas demand sound scrambling, so it is probably wise to side with accurate operators again, especially with consistent afternoon breezes expected

Key attribute Accuracy

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