Steve Palmer's Arnold Palmer Invitational final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 2pm Sunday

Best bets

Matthew Fitzpatrick top European
1pt 15-1 Betfair

Advised outright on March 5
Billy Horschel
1pt each-way 10-1 general

Advised outright on March 1
Scottie Scheffler
2.5pts each-way 16-1 general

Story so far

Bay Hill showed its teeth in round three of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the drying track sending scoring sky-high, and the trio of Viktor Hovland, Rory McIlroy and Tyrrell Hatton were a combined 13 over par for the day.

Hovland, McIlroy and Hatton dominated the halfway market, but rounds of 75, 76 and 78 respectively from the European duo blew the tournament wide-open. Americans took over at the top of the board, with Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch tied for the lead at seven under par.

Horschel, 10-1 going into the weekend, has become clear favourite. Bet365 are offering a standout 14-5 about the Floridian, while Gooch can be backed at 7-2. Hovland, who bogeyed the 17th and the 18th to surrender his lead, is sandwiched between Horschel and Gooch in the betting at 100-30.

McIlroy, the 2018 Bay Hill champion, is four shots behind and a 16-1 chance. Hatton is tied for 12th and 150-1 to overcome a six-shot deficit.

Scottie Scheffler carded the best round of the day (68) to move up the board as the leaders wobbled. Scheffler is alone in fourth place, two shots behind, and a 5-1 chance for victory.

Leaderboard
-7 Billy Horschel, Talor Gooch
-6 Viktor Hovland
-5 Scottie Scheffler
-4 Gary Woodland
-3 Chris Kirk, Graeme McDowell, Rory McIlroy

Best prices
14-5 B Horschel, 100-30 V Hovland, 7-2 T Gooch, 5 S Scheffler, 16 R McIlroy, 18 G Woodland, 40 C Kirk, 60 bar

Final-round preview

Ten under par was enough to win the Honda Classic at PGA National last week and anyone getting to that score in the Arnold Palmer Invitational will have high hopes of glory at Bay Hill.

In fact, Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch may already be on the winning score at seven under par, given how difficult the course is playing. The greens are lightning fast and a consistent breeze has been whipping across the track from Friday afternoon onwards.

Winds of around 14 mph are forecast for Sunday afternoon, while sunshine and 30C temperatures will continue to bake the track.
This has become a mental test as much as a technical one - focus, grit and sound course-management are essential to success - and plenty of players appeared to be running on empty as Saturday wore on.

Viktor Hovland hit a series of loose iron-shots, eventually surrendering his advantage over the final two holes, and the Norwegian youngster looked extremely jaded in post-round interviews. He may struggle to turn the tide in round four.

Both Hovland and Rory McIlroy have admitted they are not enjoying the course set-up. McIlroy was ragged in round three, leaving himself precious little margin for error on Sunday. The two European Ryder Cup stars may be upstaged by Billy Horschel and Scottie Scheffler.

Horschel's post-round interview was in stark contrast to the Europeans - the Floridian was enthusiastic about the test that Bay Hill was presenting and bouncing with positive thoughts. Horschel, desperate to claim a first PGA Tour title in his home state, appears to have the energy, drive and golf game to get the job done. The former FedEx Cup champion and his experienced caddie Mark Fulcher plotted their way around Bay Hill superbly in round three - and Horschel should go close to the trophy.

Horschel was recommended at 10-1 in this space yesterday morning and Racing Post Sport followers have got two strong investments running for Sunday. Ante-post recommendation, Scottie Scheffler, who drifted to 18-1 on tournament-eve, seems the biggest danger to Horschel.

Scheffler produced a five-under-par bogey-free Saturday back-nine to propel himself into the thick of things. He played the back-nine well in the Friday-afternoon breeze, too, and is a total of six under par for those nine holes. If the Phoenix Open champion can set up a winning chance down the stretch on Sunday, he can be fancied to take it.

Punters on Horschel and Scheffler at healthy odds can sit on their hands, but those keen to get involved at this stage should consider the 14-5 Horschel and the 5-1 Scheffler.

Punters seeking an extra non-outright investment are pointed towards Matthew Fitzpatrick for top European at 15-1. Fitzpatrick carded a bogey-free Saturday 70 and the Englishman is well equipped for a bone-dry Bay Hill.

Unless Hovland freshens up and refocuses, Fitzpatrick would appear to have every chance of posting another solid round and ending up the pick of the European raiders.

Horschel and Gooch tee off in the final twoball at 6.30pm UK and Ireland time. Hovland and Scheffler are due out ten minutes earlier.

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