Steve Palmer's American Express predictions and free golf betting tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for The American Express at La Quinta on the PGA Tour.

Where to watch

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Best bets

Cameron Davis
2pts each-way 45-1 Hills

Tom Hoge
2pts each-way 40-1 Betfair, Power

Adam Hadwin
1.5pts each-way 60-1 BoyleSports

Wyndham Clark
1pt each-way 80-1 Betfair, Power

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The American Express is not one of the elevated PGA Tour events which are designed to bring the world's best players together more often, but five of the top seven have opted to tee up in the Golden State anyway.

Scottie Scheffler seems on a mission to regain his world number one ranking while Rory McIlroy takes a breather and form figures of 3-9-2-7 show what a frustrating period it has been for the Texan.

Scheffler's short-range putting has become suspect, so he will need an improvement on the greens if he is to win a low-scoring shootout like this one.

Jon Rahm has won three of his last five tournaments, making him the emphatic AmEx favourite, but his behaviour during last year's edition may concern potential backers. He made some derogatory comments about the course set-ups and called the event a "putting competition".

Rahm, 14th last year, won the AmEx in 2018 and has been putting better than ever in recent weeks, so he is difficult to get away from. Bookmakers are giving nothing away with a best-price 6-1, though, and preference is for each-way investments from deeper in the betting.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Cameron Davis 45-1

The career of Cameron Davis has progressed well at every level and the 27-year-old Australian appears on the brink of becoming an established member of the elite. A second PGA Tour title could be coming his way on Sunday.

Davis won the Australian Amateur in 2015, then the Australian Open in 2017, before getting off the mark on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2018, then making his PGA Tour breakthrough with a gutsy playoff success in the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic.

This ever-improving golfing CV was further enhanced by a Presidents Cup debut in September - an appearance which showed that Davis belongs at the top table. Internationals captain Trevor Immelman selected Davis for all five sessions and he was rewarded with two points - a decent return in a side which was dominated by the Americans.

Davis paired up with Si Woo Kim to defeat Scheffler and Sam Burns in the opening foursomes - an incredible start to the Cup. Seeing his pal Si Woo win the Sony Open last week will have been inspirational for Davis, who tweeted the South Korean immediately afterwards.

The start of 2020 saw Internationals thriving after a Presidents Cup - Cameron Smith and Sungjae Im claimed maiden victories - and something similar could be occurring this season. Tom Kim has won the Shriners Open and Si Woo has won the Sony since they both impressed in the Presidents Cup. Davis could be the next Internationals victor.

It is an eyecatching statistic that 14 of the last 15 AmEx winners had already played a tournament that year. Many players are starting their 2023 campaign this week, but Davis closed with a 67 for 32nd place in the Sony Open last week. He won a low-grade event, the Sandbelt Invitational, in his homeland just before Christmas and should be able to hit the ground running in California.

The last time Davis teed up in the AmEx, he closed with a 64 for third place, and he was a top-30 finisher in his other two visits.

Next best bet

Tom Hoge 40-1

American football fan Tom Hoge handicapped his Sony Open chances by making a 5,000-mile trip to Los Angeles to watch his beloved Horned Frogs play in a prestigious match after the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Instead of the tiny island hop from Maui to Honolulu, Hoge went on an adventure, which ended in a heavy defeat for his team and a jaded 33-year-old for the Sony.

Hoge should be fresher for the fight in the AmEx and seems a huge dangerman given his form prior to the Sony. He won the QBE Shootout alongside Sahith Theegala just before Christmas, then made a brilliant Sentry debut the week before last, closing with a 64 for third place.

Hoge's approach-play is elite - he is one of the best on the PGA Tour with an iron in hand - and his putting has significantly improved this season. That is a potent combination for the AmEx, in which he finished sixth in 2020 and runner-up last year.

Hoge is the Pebble Beach Pro-Am champion - the Tour's other pro-am is also staged in California - and he is playing well enough to complete a pro-am double this week.

Other selections

Adam Hadwin 60-1

Wyndham Clark 80-1

Two players look well equipped to overcome the handicap of not having had a 2023 spin - Adam Hadwin and Wyndham Clark can grow into the tournament and be on the Stadium Course leaderboard come Sunday.

From 2016 onwards, the AmEx courses rota has been the same every year - aside from only the Stadium and the Nicklaus being used in 2021 - and Hadwin has made merry. His form figures in that period are 6-2-3-2-32-25. In his first start of 2017, he fired a third-round 59 at La Quinta on his way to second place, one of three PGA Tour runner-up finishes he has had in California.

Hadwin is a two-time Presidents Cupper - he teamed up with Sungjae Im to beat Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele in the 2019 edition - so the Canadian is not afraid to mix it with the big boys. He won on the PGA Tour in the 2017 Valspar, following two victories on the Korn Ferry. He was seventh in the US Open last year and closed 2022 with seventh in the Houston Open.

Clark also ended last year strongly, with form figures of 16-29-16-10 in his final four events, enjoying the first hole-in-one of his career in the CJ Cup and then swiftly following with a second in the RSM Classic.

If this strong driver and great putter has suddenly found a way of peppering pins with his irons, a PGA Tour breakthrough seems sure to follow. Clark finished 13th in last year's AmEx.

Players to note

Si Woo Kim
Sunday's Sony Open hero won the AmEx in 2021 and was 11th on his title defence. Back-to-back success seems entirely feasible.

Tom Kim
The South Korean youngster produced the worst putting performance of his career last week - 142nd of 144 runners in the Sony - to miss the cut. Expect normal service to quickly resume.

Patrick Cantlay
The Californian loves this event and must be respected, but he has been testing new equipment in the wake of his Titleist contract ending.

Sahith Theegala
The Californian will be excited about an event in his home state which puts a premium on putting. The QBE Shootout champion - along with Hoge - must be respected.

American Express courses guide

Courses Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta, California
Prize money $8m ($1.44m to the winner)
Length Stadium 7,187 yards, Nicklaus 7,147 yards, La Quinta 7,060 yards
Par All 72
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round three
Highest-ranked players taking part (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (2), Jon Rahm (4), Patrick Cantlay (5), Xander Schauffele (6), Will Zalatoris (7)
Course records- 18 holes TPC Stadium Course 61 Patrick Cantlay (2021); Nicklaus Tournament Course 59 Harrison Frazar (2008 Q School); La Quinta 59 Adam Hadwin (2017)

Course winners taking part(in PGA Tour events featuring TPC Stadium Course at PGA West) Jason Dufner, Jon Rahm, Adam Long, Andrew Landry, Si Woo Kim

When to bet By 4.30pm on Thursday

When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 4.30pm on Thursday

Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland

Last week - Sony Open 1 S W Kim (40-1), 2 H Buckley (66-1), 3 C Kirk (90-1), T4 A Putnam (50-1), D Lipsky (150-1), B Taylor (175-1), T7 A Baddeley (300-1), M Kuchar (50-1), M McNealy (33-1), N Lashley (300-1), N Taylor (200-1)

Course type Desert

Course overview Various layouts have been used for this multi-course pro-am through the years, which was previously the Bob Hope Classic, Humana Challenge, CareerBuilder Challenge and Desert Classic. The Stadium Course returned after a 29-year absence to act as host in 2016, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course made its debut, joining La Quinta CC for a three-course event. The same rota has been used every year since (apart from 2021 - for which La Quinta took a year off) with one round played at each of the tracks over the first three days, and the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course on Sunday. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is full of deep bunkers and water, and has similarities to the TPC Sawgrass. It usually plays harder than the Nicklaus Tournament Course, with La Quinta the easiest of the trio. The Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were both used for the PGA Tour Qualifying School Finals in 2002, 2006 and 2008

Story of last year A final-round 64 meant Hudson Swafford won the AmEx for a second time. He has since defected to LIV Golf, so will not be defending his title

Weather forecast Chilly mornings followed by pleasant afternoons, with hardly any breeze

Type of player suited to the challenge A hot putter seems almost essential in this event, with the courses set up to with hardly any rough to allow the amateurs to get round, encouraging low scoring

Key attribute Touch/putting

Spotlight insight Only one of the last 15 winners of this event was making his first start of the year

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