Steve Palmer's American Express final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 8pm Sunday

Best bets

Paul Casey to win threeball
2pts 7-5 Betfair, Hills

Abraham Ancer to win threeball
1pt 11-10 Betfair, Power

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Story so far

A trio are tied for the lead through three rounds of The American Express in California - Max Homa, Si Woo Kim and Tony Finau - all having reached 15 under par.

Homa rocketed up the leaderboard with a Saturday 65 at the Stadium Course, which stages three of the four rounds this week, while Kim and Finau carded 67s. Homa, who grew up a two-and-a-half hour drive from the venue, made nine birdies in his sizzling third round.

Homa, 125-1 ante-post, has shortened to 6-1. Kim, 66-1 prior to Jon Rahm's Monday-night withdrawal and 60-1 afterwards, is a 4-1 chance with 18 holes to play. But it is Finau who has claimed favouritism - the pre-tournament 22-1 replaced by a general 11-4.

Leaderboard
-15 Max Homa, Si Woo Kim, Tony Finau
-14 Richy Werenski
-13 Russell Knox, Brian Harman, Emiliano Grillo
-12 Cameron Davis, Rory Sabbatini, Chase Seiffert, Francesco Molinari, Doug Ghim
-11 Matt Jones, Byeong Hun An, Paul Casey, Luke List, Talor Gooch, Roger Sloan, Patrick Cantlay

Best prices
11-4 T Finau, 4 S W Kim, 6 M Homa, 12 R Werenski, 16 B Harman, E Grillo, 20 R Knox, 25 P Cantlay, 33 C Davis, F Molinari, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Halfway pacesetter Sungjae Im dropped from first to 20th in round three, highlighting the potential for trouble at the Stadium Course, and this curious track should serve up a thrilling denouement.

Im opened with two birdies in round three - and carded five birdies on the day - but visits to the water meant a 73 which dropped him off the board. Serious inaccuracy is greatly punished on several holes at this layout and Sunday's champion may be the man who finds safe passage through the aqua-lined holes.

Abraham Ancer, like his Presidents Cup colleague Im, has fallen victim to the Stadium Course's danger - the Mexican has twice hit it in the water surrounding the par-three 17th and is four over par for the week on that hole. Ancer, putting poorly as well, has surely left himself too much to do from six shots behind, but pre-tournament 60-1 Racing Post Sport recommendation Si Woo Kim has a share of the lead and can approach round four with confidence.

Kim holed hardly anything in round three, spurning countless opportunities on the dancefloors to improve is score, but he was rock-solid from tee to green and bogey-free for the day. Kim has not dropped a shot on any of the 36 holes he has played at the Stadium Course this week - few in the field are hitting their ball with more authority.

Kim took a two-shot lead into the final round of the Wyndham Championship and finished tied for third place after a disappointing 70. The 25-year-old is a proven champion, though, having won the Wyndham in 2016, then the Players Championship at Sawgrass the following year. Sawgrass, designed by Pete Dye, has many similarities to the Stadium Course, which Dye also created, including the island-green 17th which has scuppered Ancer.

Kim won his lone Korn Ferry Tour title in California and he has a good chance of PGA Tour success in the Golden State on Sunday. Work with Claude Harmon has clearly got the swing in top order and Kim just needs to hole his fair share in round four to potentially convert this opportunity.

Homa says he feels comfortable on the Stadium Course, having played it many times growing up, and he got off the mark on the PGA Tour when winning the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship. Twenty months after that success, Homa's world ranking remains almost identical to the day he was lifting the trophy, and the world number 103 is wildly inconsistent. Nine of his previous 16 starts have resulted in missed cuts. His A-game is excellent, but he struggles to retain it, and Kim should be too steady for him in round four of The American Express.

The problems Tony Finau has with getting over the line in front are well documented. For all his long-game class, a lack of short-game skill and a killer instinct mean he has got stuck on one PGA Tour victory - a low-grade 2016 Puerto Rico Open. The seven-times PGA Tour runner-up has to be greatly respected at this level - The American Express has no superstar representation - but 11-4 is giving nothing away.

On a relatively cool but sunny day, Kim, Finau and Homa can be fancied to tussle for the title, with Kim making the fewest errors to edge home in front.

Paul Casey, arguably the most dangerous member of the chasing pack, is worthy of support in his 6.20pm (UK and Ireland time) threeball against Matt Jones and Byeong Hun An. And Ancer, who clearly put himself under enormous mental pressure going into the weekend talking about what a great breakthrough opportunity he had, seems likely to relax and play better with his winning chance effectively gone. Ancer, who closed with a 63 at the Stadium Course last year, can account for Adam Schenk and Rob Oppenheim (5.30pm).

The final threeball of Homa, Kim and Finau is scheduled to tee off at 7pm.

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