Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill final-round preview, free golf betting tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event & Golf, 7am Sunday

Best bet

Wil Besseling to win threeball
2pts 6-4 Betfair

Story so far

Adrian Meronk saw his three-shot Alfred Dunhill Championship halfway lead disappear through four holes on Saturday, but the Pole rallied on the back nine to reclaim top spot going into the final round at Leopard Creek, South Africa.

Meronk, an ante-post 150-1 chance after missing the cut in his previous three European Tour events, opened his third round carding four, five, five, five - a two-over-par stretch which saw him caught - and he failed to make a birdie on the front nine.

Birdies at the tenth, 11th and 13th, though, settled the maiden down and Meronk will take a one-shot advantage into the denouement. Local lad Jayden Trey Schaper moved into second place after covering the final four holes of round three in four under par.

Pre-tournament market principals, Brandon Stone and Robert MacIntyre, are tied for 21st place, ten shots off the pace, needing a Sunday miracle. Christiaan Bezuidenhout is alone in third place, three shots behind Meronk.

Leaderboard
-14 Adrian Meronk
-13 Jayden Trey Schaper
-11 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
-10 Sean Crocker, Adri Arnaus
-9 Calum Hill, JB Hansen

Best prices
9-4 A Meronk, 11-4 J T Schaper, 7-2 C Bezuidenhout, 10 A Arnaus, 16 S Crocker, 20 JB Hansen, 33 C Hill, 66 bar

Final-round preview

Brandon Stone (tied 21st) and Wilco Nienaber (tied 18th) both need spectacular final rounds and carnage on the leaderboard if they are to threaten Alfred Dunhill glory, but Racing Post Sport's third pre-tournament selection - Jayden Trey Schaper - has set up an excellent winning opportunity.

Schaper, a super-talented teenager who belies his tender years with the assurance of a seasoned veteran, has forced his way into the final threeball and will be fancying his chances.

Early-bird punters could get 80-1 Schaper at the start of the week and the 19-year-old went off a well-backed 66-1 - quotes which compare favourably with the 11-4 against his name going into the final 18 holes.

Off the course, Schaper exhibits an old head on young shoulders, calm and confident dealing with the media interest, and on the course he has been showing off a remarkable level of tactical nous. At times during round three it was like watching Bernhard Langer plotting his way along Leopard Creek - the percentage shot being played every time - and a bogey-free 67 was the result.

If Schaper can perform on Sunday as he has done over the first three rounds, this classy youngster could make his European Tour breakthrough. The tension will obviously rise on Sunday, but it helps that Schaper is in a threeball alongside Christiaan Bezuidenhout, with whom he seems to get on well and who he partnered in round three.

Bezuidenhout was shocked to see his birdie putt at the final hole of round three fall in - he thought he had missed it and was all smiles when his misread got a positive result - and that last-gasp bonus could be crucial to the tournament. Bezuidenhout may end up a bigger threat to Schaper backers than the pacesetting Meronk.

The leader did well to rally on the back nine in round three, but the pressure of attempting to go wire-to-wire for a maiden European Tour success is putting the Pole under great strain. His pre-shot routine indicates a lack of long-game confidence and it remains to be seen whether the ugly putting stroke - which has worked well so far this week - holds up down the stretch on Sunday.

Meronk has got plenty of ability - and he has won on the Challenge Tour - but his Sunday threeball is an uncomfortable one alongside two gifted South Africans who are relishing an event in their homeland.

There is scope for somebody to come from deeper - Adri Arnaus and Sean Crocker could card a low one with a cooperative putter and have only a four-shot deficit to overcome - but the most appealing outright options are Schaper (11-4) and Bezuidenhout (7-2).

Punters carrying a healthy investment in Schaper at fancy prices may choose to have some cover on Bezuidenhout at 7-2. It comes down to personal positions at this stage of an event.

Final-round threeball punters should consider Wil Besseling for the 5.25am UK and Ireland contest. Besseling was in danger of missing the cut when three over par through eight holes of round two, but the Dutchman has played superbly since, moving to five under with two bogey-free back-nines.

Besseling can outscore Fabrizio Zanotti and Alex Levy on Sunday. Some thunderstorms are in the forecast, so tee-times are early, with Meronk, Schaper and Bezuidenhout teeing off at 8.15am local time (6.15am UK and Ireland). Sky Sports have moved their coverage from 10am to 7am.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport