Steve Palmer's Alfred Dunhill Championship final-round preview, best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 10am Sunday

Best bets

Dean Burmester to win Alfred Dunhill Championship
2pts each-way 4-1 general

Christiaan Bezuidenhout to shoot lowest final round
1pt each-way 14-1 BoyleSports

Story so far

Ockie Strydom and Scott Jamieson are tied for the lead going into the final round of the Alfred Dunhill Championship at Leopard Creek, South Africa.

Strydom, 175-1 ante-post, and Jamieson, 35-1, have both reached 15 under par through 54 holes of action. Strydom is a 4-1 chance to convert this chance into the trophy, while Jamieson is 14-5 favourite.

The pre-tournament market was dominated by top-class South Africans, but most of them have dropped out of contention. Charl Schwartzel took an incorrect drop at the 18th hole of round one, suffering a two-shot penalty which meant he closed with a nine, and the four-time Leopard Creek champion carded another nine at the fourth hole of round two.

Sunday's South African Open champion, Thriston Lawrence, is 11 shots behind, Christiaan Bezuidenhout has an eight-shot final-round deficit to overcome, while Louis Oosthuizen, despite some fortune at the 18th hole in round three, will head into the denouement with six shots to make up on the leaders. Dean Burmester (two shots off the pace) and Branden Grace (three) are the market principals who have performed best.

Leaderboard
-15 Ockie Strydom, Scott Jamieson
-13 Dale Whitnell, Oliver Bekker, Dean Burmester
-12 Adrian Otaegui, Branden Grace, Dylan Frittelli
-11 Aaron Cockerill
-9 Ross Fisher, Louis Oosthuizen, MJ Daffue, Eddie Pepperell, David Ravetto

Best prices
14-5 S Jamieson, 4 O Strydom, D Burmester, 17-2 O Bekker, 11 D Whitnell, B Grace, 12 A Otaegui, 14 D Frittelli, 80 bar

Final-round preview

Ockie Strydom is the world number 384 and the 37-year-old has never been inside the top 300 of the world rankings. His Leopard Creek form figures prior to this week were 62-MC-MC-63-56-MC-57.

It would be a surprise should Strydom possess the game and self-belief to claim Alfred Dunhill glory and a DP World Tour card, while Scott Jamieson is a notoriously fragile frontrunner.

Jamieson seems to love competition in South Africa - his only DP World Tour title came in the rain-shortened 36-hole Nelson Mandela Invitational and his two DP World Tour runner-up finishes came in the Rainbow Nation.

In this particular tournament, Jamieson has been a leaderboard regular - third in 2012, fourth in 2016, third in 2018, sixth in 2020 - so the Scot has shown he can handle Leopard Creek. The 14-5 Jamieson appeals more than the 4-1 Strydom, but leaving both the leaders alone is arguably the best tactic.

Jamieson, who turns 40 next year, is difficult to trust at short prices. The amiable Glaswegian has squandered numerous opportunities for silverware. Punters on each-way at the pre-tournament odds should be giving themselves a pat on the back, but anyone yet to get involved should be wary of diving in heavy on the Sunday favourite.

Bookmakers will be hoping either Strydom or Dylan Frittelli wins the title. Frittelli was a Monday qualifier who was late into the betting. The layers seem likely to be disappointed. Oliver Bekker is a tempting option at 17-2, but the most attractive wager is Dean Burmester at 4-1.

Burmester has a terrible record at Leopard Creek, missing seven cuts from nine previous starts, so it was difficult to be confident about his title hopes before the off. He is hitting his ball with such authority, though, that previous failures have been quickly forgotten.

Burmester made a slow start in the South African Open last week, but there were excuses, with his son ill and the worried Burmester family not getting much sleep. A Saturday 66 helped Burmester to finish strongly last week and finish fifth, and he has carried that form to Leopard Creek.

From two shots behind a pair of vulnerable leaders, Burmester can complete a DP World Tour hat-trick. His ball-striking confidence can prove decisive on a sunny, calm Sunday. This is a man with a PGA Tour card in his pocket and a career-high level of self-belief. It seems like only a badly misbehaving putter could stop Burmester having a winning chance down the stretch on Sunday.

There will not be a more popular champion this week than Burmester, who does so much off the course to promote rhino conservation. Every birdie he makes bolsters the funds of the team responsible for saving rhinos, some of whom live in Leopard Creek.
Some punters may prefer an each-way investment in Burmester, with terms of a quarter, first three, meaning the place bet can pay for the win bet.

BoyleSports are betting on who will card the lowest Sunday round - and Christiaan Bezuidenhout can go close. Bezuidenhout, sharing 22nd place and able to approach Sunday pressure-free, seems likely to finish with a flourish. He won the last Alfred Dunhill by four shots and a Saturday 67 has set the Mpumalanga man up for a positive Sunday freewheel in his home province.

Strydom, Jamieson and Dale Whitnell are scheduled out in the final threeball at 10.30am local time (8.30am UK and Ireland).

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